Live prediction of seat-availability for bus passengers from real time bus occupancy and location data

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Social distancing measures have reduced the effective capacity of buses to 40% of regular capacity. Although many routes are not currently busy enough to be commercially viable overall, they can be too busy at certain times and passengers are being turned away as a result. With passengers already nervous about using public transport - such instances may prevent passengers from using the bus in the future.Operators must find ways to build confidence in bus services through improved passenger information that is reliable and constantly updated. Specifically, there is a need to provide passengers with information on the space available on buses, so passengers know if they will be able to board and if they will be comfortable with the experience. This information must go beyond advance planning tools, and provide real time, continuously updated predictions of the space on specific buses at specific stops.Our proposal will provide a real time data feed of expected arrival time and predicted passenger space for every vehicle and every bus stop on a bus route. This goes beyond existing solutions by combining real time occupancy sensing with real time prediction of boarding and alighting further down the route. The feed will be continuously updated and can be integrated into a wider range of passenger facing services, including passengers apps, digital bus stop signage and journey planning tools.