JUDGMENT UNDER UNCERTAINTY--USE OF FREQUENCY/PROBABILITY

不确定性下的判断——频率/概率的使用

• 批准号: 2771817
• 负责人: ALAN SANFEY
• 金额: $ 2.06万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 1999
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1999-06-15 至
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/2771817
• 关键词: behavior prediction; behavioral /social science research tag; choice; clinical research; decision making; human subject; judgment; mathematical model; memory; model design /development; neural information processing; psychological models; questionnaires; statistics /biometry

The research plan proposes is a series of empirical studies of judgment under uncertainty, in particular the exploration of judgment tasks which involve the use of frequency information to make a decision. There is currently some disagreement in the field of judgment and decision-making as to whether people are capable of making rational choices in these type of judgments, with various groups of researchers predicting that people either can or cannot reason accurately about frequencies and probabilities. A primary goal of this research is to develop and test a simple task for the study of these type of judgments under uncertainty. Also, we seek to determine how the stimulus event information is represented mentally in the participants' memories; here we are especially interested in whether subjects retain information about raw frequencies of occurrence or remember abstracted propensities or relative frequencies. Using this task, we further intend to test a general model of choice under uncertainty, and to use this model in the induction of general principles to predict the conditions under which judgments will be based on absolute or on relative frequencies. Finally, we will implement a neurally-inspired model of the learning, memory, and judgment processes underlying the behavior summarized in this general algebraic model.

本研究计划提出的是一系列关于判断的实证研究 在不确定性下，特别是对判断任务的探索， 涉及使用频率信息来做出决定。 有 目前在判断和决策领域存在一些分歧， 人们是否有能力在这些问题上做出理性的选择 各种类型的判断，不同的研究人员预测， 人们可以或不能准确地推理频率， 概率 这项研究的主要目标是开发和测试 一个简单的任务，为研究这些类型的判断下， 不确定性 此外，我们试图确定刺激事件如何 信息在参与者的记忆中被精神上表现出来;在这里， 我们特别感兴趣的是， 关于发生的原始频率或记住抽象的倾向 或相对频率。 使用此任务，我们还打算测试一个 一般模型的选择下的不确定性，并使用该模型在 归纳一般原则，以预测 判断将基于绝对或相对频率。最后， 我们将实现一个神经启发的学习，记忆模型， 在这个一般性的总结行为的判断过程 代数模型