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JUDGMENT UNDER UNCERTAINTY--USE OF FREQUENCY/PROBABILITY

不确定性下的判断——频率/概率的使用

基本信息

批准号：
6165130
负责人：
ALAN SANFEY
金额：
$ 2.19万
依托单位：
UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
财政年份：
2000
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2000-02-15 至
项目状态：
未结题

来源：
https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/6165130
关键词：
behavior prediction behavioral /social science research tag choice clinical research decision making human subject judgment mathematical model memory model design /development neural information processing psychological models questionnaires statistics /biometry

项目摘要

The research plan proposes is a series of empirical studies of judgment under uncertainty, in particular the exploration of judgment tasks which involve the use of frequency information to make a decision. There is currently some disagreement in the field of judgment and decision-making as to whether people are capable of making rational choices in these type of judgments, with various groups of researchers predicting that people either can or cannot reason accurately about frequencies and probabilities. A primary goal of this research is to develop and test a simple task for the study of these type of judgments under uncertainty. Also, we seek to determine how the stimulus event information is represented mentally in the participants' memories; here we are especially interested in whether subjects retain information about raw frequencies of occurrence or remember abstracted propensities or relative frequencies. Using this task, we further intend to test a general model of choice under uncertainty, and to use this model in the induction of general principles to predict the conditions under which judgments will be based on absolute or on relative frequencies. Finally, we will implement a neurally-inspired model of the learning, memory, and judgment processes underlying the behavior summarized in this general algebraic model.

研究计划提出的是一系列关于判断的实证研究在不确定条件下，尤其是对判断任务的探索涉及到使用频率信息来做出决定。的确有目前，在判决和决策领域存在一些分歧至于人们是否有能力在这些方面做出理性选择判断的类型，不同的研究小组预测人们要么可以，要么不能准确地推断频率和概率。这项研究的一个主要目标是开发和测试一个简单的任务，用于研究这些类型的判决不确定性。此外，我们试图确定刺激事件如何在参与者的记忆中，信息在心理上表现出来；我们特别感兴趣的是受试者是否保留了信息关于出现的原始频率或记住抽象的倾向或相对频率。通过这个任务，我们进一步打算测试一个不确定条件下的一般选择模型，并将该模型应用于归纳出预测以下情况的一般原则判断将基于绝对频率或相对频率。最后，我们将实施一个受神经启发的学习、记忆和在本总则中总结的行为背后的判断过程代数模型。