Triangulation of values using different valuation methods - CAVEAT

当应用于文化和遗产资本时，本报告将识别并减轻与当前估值方法相关的警告，从而为决策提供信息。本课程将探讨如何对现有估值技术进行最佳三角测量，以评估复杂历史资产（如历史商业街/街区）的存量（和流量）价值，以提高决策者在社会成本效益分析（SCBS）中使用此类结果时的信心。警告解决了一个关键的政策和知识差距。遗产资产的保护需要在资源稀缺的制度下进行投资。历史悠久的英格兰高街遗产行动区（HSHAZ）项目就是一个例子，说明保护区可能需要协调一致的行动。历史悠久的商业街目前正受到企业关闭的影响，如果没有对其保护和重新认证的投资，城市就会失去其遗产的核心部分。投资的商业案例要求决策者在社会成本效益分析（SCBS）框架内比较干预的成本和收益。他们面临的主要问题是充分考虑与文化资产相关的经济价值（包括使用和不使用），并阐明其社会效益，这些效益无法通过简单的市场交易获得。遗产资产不仅仅是它的房地产价值，或者是人们与它的使用联系在一起的价值。非使用价值，与资产的文化、美学和象征质量和/或社区对它的情感依恋有关，将这种资产定义为遗产（Throsby, 1999）。唯一能够捕捉与文化遗产相关的非使用价值的方法是基于调查的技术，如选择实验和条件评估，这些技术可用于以货币形式表达与保护历史资产相关的社会效益。caution将几种经济评估技术应用于英国中等规模城市的同一条历史商业街，以评估使用价值和非使用价值，并了解估计中可能出现分歧的原因、偏差的来源和最小化偏差的方法。这些技术捕捉使用价值（如享乐定价（HP）和旅行成本（TC）方法）和非使用价值（条件估值（CV）和离散选择实验（DCE）方法）。它调查了偏差的来源，如嵌入效应（关于商品范围的估计缺乏变化的问题）和信息效应。它探讨了受访者的情感依恋所起的作用，并将假设设置（CV和DCE）中获得的价值估计值与现实世界的实验进行了比较，在现实世界中，实际交易的非使用价值发生了。然后将CV和DCE的结果与另一个英国城市的可比历史高街进行测试。这测试了两个站点之间使用利益转移（从第一个站点获得的结果推断可比站点的期望值）的结果的可靠性，并提出了尽量减少可能的转移错误的方法。该项目的主要成果是指导研究人员和决策者如何有效和高效地对复杂资产（如历史商业街/历史街区）进行三角测量评估方法，以及如何最大限度地减少潜在的偏差。告诫为未来研究的发展提供了一个框架。这项研究将影响英国文化部门及其他领域。项目团队包括两个主要的国际遗产利益相关者ICCROM和ICOMOS，参与世界各国政府和专家。项目团队包括来自不同学科（建筑、城市规划、遗产保护、文化经济学、环境经济学、遗产倡导、政策制定支持）的专业人士，他们之前曾研究过这些主题，并致力于跨学科的方法。

CAVEAT will identify and mitigate the caveats associated with current valuation methods when applied to culture and heritage capital to inform decision making. CAVEAT will explore how to best triangulate existing valuation techniques to assess the value of the stock (and flows) of a complex historic asset, such as a historic high street/neighbourhood, to improve decision makers' confidence when using such results in Social Cost-Benefit Analysis (SCBS).CAVEAT addresses a key policy and knowledge gap. The protection of heritage assets requires investments in a regime of scarce resources. Historic England's High Street Heritage Action Zone (HSHAZ) programme is an example of how conservation areas may require coordinated actions. Historic High Streets are currently suffering from the impact of businesses closures, and without investment in their conservation and requalification, cities lose a central part of their heritage. A business case for investment requires decision makers to compare costs and benefits of the intervention within a Social Cost Benefit Analysis (SCBS) framework. The main problem they face is to fully account for the economic values (both use and non-use) associated with a cultural asset and articulate their social benefits, which cannot be captured by simple market transactions. A heritage asset is more than its real estate value, or the value people associate with its use. The non-use value, linked to the cultural, aesthetic, and symbolic quality of the asset and/or the emotional attachment that communities have toward it, define such asset as heritage (Throsby, 1999). The only methods able to capture the non-use values associated to cultural heritage are survey-based techniques such as choice experiment and contingent valuation, which can be used to express in monetary terms the social benefits associated to the conservation of historic assets. CAVEAT applies several economic valuation techniques to the same historic high street in an English medium sized city to assess the use and non-use values, and understand the reasons for possible divergence in estimates, sources of bias and ways of minimizing them. These techniques capture use values (such as hedonic pricing (HP) and travel cost (TC) methods) and non-use values (contingent valuation (CV) and discrete choice experiment (DCE) methods). It investigates sources of biases, such as embedding effects (the problem of lack of variation of estimates with respect to the scope of the good) and information effects. It explores the role played by emotional attachment of respondents and compares the estimates of values obtained within the hypothetical setting (CV and DCE) with real-world experiments, where actual transaction for non-use values take place. The results from CV and DCE are then tested against a comparable historic high street in another English city. This tests the reliability of results using benefit transfers (inferring the expected values at the comparable site from results obtained from the first site) between the two sites and suggests ways to minimise possible transfer errors.The main outcome of the project is a guidance for researchers and decision-makers on how to effectively and efficiently triangulate valuation methods for complex assets such as historic high streets/historic neighbourhoods and how to minimise potential biases. CAVEAT provides a framework for the development of future studies. The research will impact the UK cultural sector and beyond. The project team involves two key international heritage stakeholders ICCROM and ICOMOS, engaging governments and experts worldwide.The project team encompasses expertise from various disciplines (architecture, urban planning, heritage conservation, cultural economics, environmental economics, heritage advocacy, policy making support) who have worked on these themes before and are committed to an interdisciplinary approach.