Predicting effects of climate change on severity of crop disease epidemics allowing for adaptive change

气候变化将影响粮食生产，从而影响粮食安全。气候在许多方面影响农作物。该项目将侧重于气候变化对真菌引起的作物疾病的流行和严重程度的影响。虽然气候变化肯定会改变作物疾病流行的严重程度，但这些变化的细节尚不确定，因为气候、作物和疾病模型并不完善。对于某些疾病，将疾病进展与天气因素联系起来的模型可以与作物模型和天气发生器相结合，以提供对未来气候下疾病流行的分布和严重程度的预测，但许多因素尚未探索。这个为期4年的BBSRC产业博士项目旨在提高对英国作物疾病流行严重程度的预测，尤其关注病原体本身如何随着环境变化而进化。它将重点关注冬季油菜的主要病害：瘤、茎溃疡病和轻叶斑病，尽管结果中揭示的原则也将适用于其他英国作物病害。以前的评估假设病原体不会适应不断变化的气候，但这一假设尚未得到验证。因此，目标是：1)模拟作物病原体如何适应不断变化的气候（例如，温度升高）并测量模型的参数；2)改进模型，预测气候变化将如何改变作物病害的严重程度。该项目将包括洛桑研究所的受控环境和现场实验工作，雷丁大学的建模工作，以及整个英格兰东部地区的ADAS现场实验。该项目将由ADAS、Rothamsted和Reading的一个科学家小组监督，他们拥有所有必要的专业知识，并在以前的许多场合合作过。因此，它将提供一个优秀的全面培训，以培养一个在农业、作物保护和气候变化建模方面都有良好知识的科学家。它将产生数据来指导政策和科学投资，特别是在育种和杀菌剂使用方面。这将有助于农业和政府制定适应气候变化的战略规划。

Climate change will affect food production and therefore food security. Climate affects crops in many ways. This project will focus on the effect of changes in climate on the prevalence and severity of diseases of crops caused by fungi. Whilst climate change is certain to change severity of crop disease epidemics, the detail of those changes is uncertain because climate, crop and disease models are imperfect. For some diseases, models linking disease progress to weather factors can be combined with crop models and weather generators to provide predictions of the distribution and severity of disease epidemics under future climates, but many factors are as yet unexplored. This 4-year BBSRC Industry PhD project aims to improve predictions of the severity of UK crop disease epidemics, focussing especially on how the pathogens themselves will evolve in response to environmental change. Itwill focus on the main diseases of winter oilseed rape: phoma stem canker and light leaf spot, although the principles revealed in the results will also be applicable to other UK crop diseases. Previous assessments assume the pathogen will not adapt to changing climate, but this assumption has not been tested. Thus, the objectives are: 1) To model how crop pathogens adapt to changing climates (e.g. increasing temperature) and measure parameters of the models; 2) To improve models to predict how climate change will alter severity of crop disease. The project will involve controlled environment and field experimental work at Rothamsted, modelling work at Reading university, and access to ADAS field experiments at locations throughout eastern England. The project will be supervised by a team of scientists at ADAS, Rothamsted and Reading, who have all the necessary expertise and have worked together on many previous occasions. Thus it will provide an excellent all-round training to produce a scientist with a good knowledge of both agriculture, crop protection and climate change modelling. It will produce data to guide policy and science investment, especially in breeding and fungicide use. This will assist strategic planning for adaptation to climate change by the agricultural industry and government.