An integrated model for predicting bumblebee population success and pollination services in agro-ecosystems

预测农业生态系统中熊蜂种群成功和授粉服务的综合模型

• 批准号: BB/J014753/1
• 负责人: David Goulson
• 金额: $ 41.61万
• 依托单位: University of Stirling
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2012
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2012 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=BB%2FJ014753%2F1
• 关键词: integrated; model; predicting; bumblebee; population

It is now widely recognized that both wild and managed pollinators provide a vital ecosystem service, essential for the maintenance of biodiversity in natural and semi-natural ecosystems, and necessary for crop production in ~75% of the world's crop species. Recent estimates suggest that crop pollination in the UK is worth £440 million. The main crop pollinators in the UK and throughout the temperate northern hemisphere are honeybees and bumblebees; honeybee populations are threatened by health issues, while many bumblebee species have undergone range declines, probably primarily due to habitat loss. There is thus an urgent need to develop farm management strategies which sustain both healthy populations of pollinators and crop yields. For bumblebees, we lack a detailed understanding of the relationships between the growth and survival of bumblebee nests, the spatial and temporal distribution of the floral resources on which they depend, and the spatial distribution of pollination services they provide. We cannot predict how many bumblebee nests a landscape can support, or how many crop plants they can pollinate. We do not know how many flowers are needed to support a single healthy nest, or how important predators and parasites are in removing bees and whole nests. This project proposes to use a systems approach to answer these questions, combining simulation models with a range of field and genetic studies to provide a new insight into factors governing bumblebee populations in agroecosystems. We will quantify the spatial and temporal distribution of pollen (protein) and nectar (sugar) provided by flowers in 10 representative landscapes (5 in England, 5 in Scotland) using GIS-based maps. In lab studies we will quantify the resources (protein and sugar) needed for healthy growth of a nest. Using novel camera systems developed by the applicants we will monitor wild bumblebee nests to establish rates of predation of nests and of individual bees. These data will feed in to models which will be developed to simulate the growth of realistic numbers of bumblebee nests seeded into our ten landscapes, with models also simulating the foraging of individual workers (agents) from each nest, estimating which food patches they are likely to exploit. Colonies will interact in the landscape through exploitation of resources, and be subject to realistic rates of predation and parasitism. The model will be validated by measuring actual colony growth rates of experimental nests placed into these landscapes, and by measuring the number of nests of different bumblebee species exploiting particular patches of forage within these landscapes (quantified using genetic techniques to identify sisters). Once validated, the models will then be used to predict the spatial distribution of crop pollination services for field beans, and these predictions tested by field measurements of bee visitation rates. The models will also be used to simulate the consequences of adding floral resources to the landscape in terms of pollen and nectar strips, enabling us to quantify how many extra bee nests, and how much extra crop pollination, can be supported. The project will build on and contrast with honeybee models currently being developed in a BBSRC-funded project at Rothamsted. Overall this project will, for the first time, provide us with mechanistic links and quantitative, validated predictions linking bumblebee populations, wildflowers, bee predators and crop pollination.

现在人们普遍认识到，野生和管理的传粉者都提供了重要的生态系统服务，对维持自然和半自然生态系统的生物多样性至关重要，对世界上约75%的作物品种的作物生产也是必要的。最近的估计表明，英国的作物授粉价值4.4亿英镑。英国和整个温带北方半球的主要作物授粉者是蜜蜂和大黄蜂;蜜蜂种群受到健康问题的威胁，而许多大黄蜂物种已经经历了范围下降，可能主要是由于栖息地丧失。因此，迫切需要制定农场管理战略，以维持健康的传粉者种群和作物产量。对于熊蜂，我们缺乏对熊蜂巢的生长和生存之间的关系，它们所依赖的花卉资源的空间和时间分布以及它们提供的授粉服务的空间分布的详细了解。我们无法预测一个景观可以支撑多少个大黄蜂巢穴，或者它们可以为多少种作物授粉。我们不知道需要多少花来维持一个健康的蜂巢，也不知道捕食者和寄生虫在移除蜜蜂和整个蜂巢中有多重要。该项目建议使用系统方法来回答这些问题，将模拟模型与一系列实地和遗传研究相结合，为农业生态系统中大黄蜂种群的控制因素提供新的见解。我们将量化的空间和时间分布的花粉（蛋白质）和花蜜（糖）提供的花在10个代表性的景观（5个在英格兰，5个在苏格兰）使用基于GIS的地图。在实验室研究中，我们将量化鸟巢健康成长所需的资源（蛋白质和糖）。使用由申请人开发的新型相机系统，我们将监测野生大黄蜂巢以建立巢和个体蜜蜂的捕食率。这些数据将输入模型，这些模型将被开发用于模拟实际数量的大黄蜂巢的增长，这些巢被播种到我们的十个景观中，模型还模拟每个巢中的个体工人（代理人）的觅食，估计它们可能会利用哪些食物斑块。殖民地将通过开发资源在景观中相互作用，并受到现实的捕食和寄生率。该模型将通过测量放置在这些景观中的实验巢的实际菌落生长率，以及通过测量利用这些景观中特定的饲料斑块的不同大黄蜂物种的巢数（使用遗传技术进行量化以识别姐妹篇）来验证。一旦得到验证，这些模型将被用来预测作物授粉服务的空间分布，并通过实地测量蜜蜂的访问率来测试这些预测。这些模型还将用于模拟在花粉和花蜜带方面向景观添加花卉资源的后果，使我们能够量化有多少额外的蜂巢，以及有多少额外的作物授粉可以支持。该项目将建立在蜜蜂模型的基础上，并与目前在BBSRC资助的项目中开发的蜜蜂模型进行对比。总的来说，这个项目将首次为我们提供联系大黄蜂种群、野花、蜜蜂捕食者和作物授粉的机械联系和定量、有效的预测。

项目成果

Bumble-BEEHAVE: A systems model for exploring multifactorial causes of bumblebee decline at individual, colony, population and community level.

Bumble-Beehave：一种用于探索个体，殖民地，人口和社区层面大黄蜂下降的多因素原因的系统模型。

• DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.13165
• 发表时间: 2018-11
• 期刊: The Journal of applied ecology
• 作者: Becher MA;Twiston-Davies G;Penny TD;Goulson D;Rotheray EL;Osborne JL
• 通讯作者: Osborne JL

Bumblebee pupae contain high levels of aluminium.

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0127665
• 发表时间: 2015
• 期刊: PloS one
• 影响因子: 3.7
• 作者: Exley C;Rotheray E;Goulson D
• 通讯作者: Goulson D

Floral abundance and resource quality influence pollinator choice

• DOI: 10.1111/icad.12197
• 发表时间: 2016-11-01
• 期刊: INSECT CONSERVATION AND DIVERSITY
• 影响因子: 3.5
• 作者: Fowler, Robert E.;Rotheray, Ellen L.;Goulson, Dave
• 通讯作者: Goulson, Dave

Seasonal complementary in pollinators of soft-fruit crops

• DOI: 10.1016/j.baae.2016.11.007
• 发表时间: 2017-03-01
• 期刊: BASIC AND APPLIED ECOLOGY
• 影响因子: 3.8
• 作者: Ellis, Ciaran R.;Feltham, Hannah;Goulson, Dave
• 通讯作者: Goulson, Dave

Causes of colony mortality in bumblebees

熊蜂群体死亡的原因

• DOI: 10.1111/acv.12363
• 发表时间: 2017
• 期刊: Animal Conservation
• 影响因子: 3.4
• 作者: Goulson D