Social, Economic and Environmental Drivers of Zoonoses in Tanzania (SEEDZ)

牲畜对全世界近6亿人的粮食安全和生计至关重要，是一种重要资源，有可能支持撒哈拉以南非洲许多国家的经济发展。然而，牲畜也是人畜共患病的来源，这种疾病可以从动物传播给人。人们日益认识到，人畜共患疾病对世界上一些最贫穷人口的健康和生计产生深远影响。在包括坦桑尼亚在内的低收入国家普遍存在的地方性人畜共患疾病尤其如此，本研究重点关注的人畜共患疾病，即布鲁氏菌病、Q热和裂谷热，都可能导致牲畜生产损失，并在人群中引起严重的发热疾病，并有可能造成慢性残疾（布鲁氏菌病和Q热），以及致命的出血性疾病。引起发烧的人畜共患病问题尤其严重，因为仅凭症状很难诊断，而且在撒哈拉以南非洲几乎总是被误诊，往往被误诊为疟疾，对人类健康造成严重后果。市场动态、土地使用和农业政策、环境因素、文化习俗和技术的变化都在改变着人们饲养和管理牲畜的方式，无论是作为食物还是作为收入来源。然而，这些变化对人畜共患病风险的影响几乎是未知的。本项目将以坦桑尼亚为例，探讨畜牧业系统的性质，重点关注两个正在迅速转型的系统：（1）特别受到以作物为基础的农业扩张影响的畜牧业-野生动物部门，（2）城市周边畜牧业部门。在这些系统中，我们将比较与城市中心和野生动物区的连通性不同的社区，以确定变化的驱动因素（环境，社会，经济，人口和治理）。我们将研究这些与动物传播给人类的疾病风险之间的关系，以及这些疾病如何影响家庭生计和贫困。我们将首先利用坦桑尼亚北方这三种人畜共患疾病的信息建立疾病风险模型。在此基础上，我们将建立一个可应用于其他几种人畜共患疾病的模型，这将使我们能够预测驱动因素如何影响畜牧系统和未来人畜共患疾病的风险。在整个项目中，定量流行病学方法和疾病建模将得到定性研究的补充（包括面试，重点小组讨论和参与方法）使研究人员能够了解疾病传播的风险模式，以及人们决定对这种风险作出反应（或不作出反应）背后的推理。这也将有助于确保以适合有关社区的方式制定减轻疾病风险的政策干预措施，从而更有可能为有关社区所接受，这一项目必然是跨学科的，由一名流行病学家和一名社会科学家共同领导，这将确保科学和社会科学问题以及学科之间的相互理解仍然是项目的核心。该国际团队代表了畜牧系统，疾病建模，定性社会科学，经济学和发展方面的广泛专业知识，还包括国家和国际层面的政策制定者，为研究设计和传播方法提供信息，以最大限度地提高研究成果的利用率。年度会议和定期Skype电话将确保学科和国家背景之间的思想交流，并将加强处于职业生涯不同阶段的工作人员之间的互动和指导。该项目为培训机会和能力建设提供了一个宝贵的平台。

Livestock are critical for the food security and livelihoods of almost 600 million people worldwide, and represent an important resource that has the potential to support economic development of many countries in sub-Saharan Africa. However, livestock also act as a source of zoonoses, diseases that can be transmitted to people from animals. There is growing recognition that zoonotic diseases have a profound impact on the health and livelihoods of some of the world's poorest people. This is especially the case for endemic zoonoses that are widespread in low-income countries, including Tanzania.The zoonotic diseases that are the focus of this study, brucellosis, Q-fever and Rift Valley Fever (RVF), can all result in livestock production losses and cause severe fever-causing illnesses in people, with the potential for chronic disability (brucellosis and Q fever), as well as fatal haemorrhagic disease (RVF). Zoonoses that causing fevers are particularly problematic because they are difficult to diagnose on symptoms alone, and in sub-Saharan Africa are almost always misdiagnosed, often as malaria, with serious consequences for human health.Livestock systems in Africa are undergoing rapid transition. Changes in market dynamics, land-use and agricultural policy, environmental factors, cultural practices and technology are all changing the way people keep and manage livestock, both for food and as sources of income. However, the consequences of these changes on zoonotic disease risk are almost unknown. This project will use the case of Tanzania to explore the nature of livestock systems, focusing on two systems undergoing rapid transition: (1) the pastoral-wildlife sector affected particularly by expansion of crop-based agriculture, and (2) the peri-urban livestock sector. Within these systems, we will compare communities that vary in relation to their connectivity with urban centres and wildlife areas to characterise drivers of change (environmental, social, economic, demographic and governance). We will examine how these relate to risks of diseases transmitted to people from animals and how these diseases affect household livelihoods and poverty. We will first develop models of disease risk using information on these three zoonotic diseases in northern Tanzania. From this, we will produce a model that can be applied to several other zoonotic diseases and which will allow us to anticipate how drivers may affect livestock systems and zoonotic disease risks in the future.Throughout the project, quantitative epidemiological approaches and disease modelling will be complemented by qualitative research (including interviews, focus group discussions and participatory methods) to enable researchers to understand patterns of risk of disease transmission but also the reasoning that lies behind people's decisions to respond (or not) to this risk. This will also help to ensure that policy interventions to mitigate disease risk are developed in a way that is appropriate to, and therefore more likely to be accepted by, the communities in question.This project is necessarily interdisciplinary and is jointly led by an epidemiologist and a social scientist, which will ensure that scientific and social scientific issues and mutual understanding between disciplines remain central to the project. The international team represents wide-ranging expertise in livestock systems, disease modelling, qualitative social sciences, economics, and development, and also includes policy-makers at national and international levels to inform study design and dissemination approaches that will maximise the uptake of research findings. Annual meetings and regular Skype calls will ensure the exchange of ideas between disciplinary and national backgrounds and will enhance interaction and mentoring between staff at different stages of their careers. The project provides a valuable platform for training opportunities and capacity-building.