STATISTICAL METHODLOGY FOR STUDY OF THE AIDS EPIDEMIC

该项目的目标是继续发展和 药物相关研究中统计方法的评价 使用和获得性免疫缺陷综合症（艾滋病）。 一个协作 来自五所大学中心的研究小组将进行研究 满足提供艾滋病流行信息的需要， 充分利用现有数据。 统计方法允许 自然灾害与时间有关的多因素方面的说明 艾滋病史将被开发并应用于静脉注射数据 (IV)感染人体免疫机能丧失病毒的药物滥用者 （艾滋病毒）。 相对风险回归模型将提供一种方法学 这一研究的框架。 具体关注的主题将是（i） 艾滋病免疫学标志物模型的开发， 它们与静脉药物滥用者临床结局的关系，（ii） 估计艾滋病毒感染的时间和概率 （iii）在静脉注射药物滥用者感染艾滋病后， IV药物滥用者的血清阳性率和发病率，（四） 研究影响脆弱性的辅助因素的作用， 艾滋病毒的传播性，（v）艾滋病风险的数学建模， 在静脉吸毒者和异性恋人群中传播。 需要考虑的其他领域包括艾滋病病例预测方法， 分析相关的分类数据，并对来自 国际来源。 此外，对数据进行分析， 研究中心的艾滋病研究将继续指导研究 重点以及提供机会，以测试方法和计算机 作为本研究的一部分开发的软件。

The objective of this project is the continued development and evaluation of statistical methods for use in research related to drug use and the Acquired Immuno-deficiency Syndrome (AIDS). A collaborative team drawn from five university centers will undertake research studies to respond to the need to provide information on the AIDS epidemic which makes full use of available data. Statistical methods which allow description of the time-dependent multifactorial aspects of the natural history of AIDS will be developed and applied to data on intravenous (IV) drug abusers who are infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Relative risk regression models will provide a methodologic framework for this research. Topics of specific interest will be (i) the development of models for immunological markers of HIV disease and their relationship to clinical outcomes in IV drug abusers, (ii) estimation of the time of HIV infection and the probability of developing AIDS after infection in IV drug abusers, (iii) estimation of seroprevalence and incidence in IV drug abusers, (iv) models for studying the role of cofactors that affect vulnerability and transmissibility of HIV, (v) mathematical modeling of AIDS risk and transmission among IV drug abusers and the heterosexual population. Other areas to be considered include AIDS case projection methodology, analysis of correlated categorical data and work on data from international sources. Furthermore the analysis of data arising from studies of AIDS in the research centers will continue to direct research focus as well as provide the opportunity to test methods and computer software which are developed as part of this research.