STATISTICAL METHODLOGY FOR STUDY OF THE AIDS EPIDEMIC

该项目的目标是持续发展和 药物相关研究中使用的统计方法的评估 使用和获得性免疫缺陷综合症（艾滋病）。 一个协作的 来自五个大学中心的团队将进行研究 以满足提供艾滋病流行信息的需要 充分利用可用数据。 统计方法允许 对自然的时间依赖性多因素方面的描述 艾滋病史将被开发并应用于静脉注射数据 （四）感染人类免疫缺陷病毒的吸毒者 （艾滋病毒）。 相对风险回归模型将提供一种方法论 本研究的框架。 特别感兴趣的主题是 (i) HIV疾病免疫标记模型的开发和 它们与静脉注射药物滥用者临床结果的关系，(ii) 估计HIV感染的时间和概率 静脉注射药物滥用者感染后发展为艾滋病，(iii) 估计 静脉注射药物滥用者的血清阳性率和发病率，(iv) 模型 研究影响脆弱性和影响的辅助因素的作用 HIV 的传播性，(v) 艾滋病风险的数学模型，以及 静脉注射药物滥用者和异性恋人群中的传播。 其他需要考虑的领域包括艾滋病病例预测方法、 分析相关分类数据并处理来自 国际来源。 此外，对数据进行分析 研究中心的艾滋病研究将继续指导研究 重点并提供测试方法和计算机的机会 作为本研究的一部分开发的软件。

The objective of this project is the continued development and evaluation of statistical methods for use in research related to drug use and the Acquired Immuno-deficiency Syndrome (AIDS). A collaborative team drawn from five university centers will undertake research studies to respond to the need to provide information on the AIDS epidemic which makes full use of available data. Statistical methods which allow description of the time-dependent multifactorial aspects of the natural history of AIDS will be developed and applied to data on intravenous (IV) drug abusers who are infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Relative risk regression models will provide a methodologic framework for this research. Topics of specific interest will be (i) the development of models for immunological markers of HIV disease and their relationship to clinical outcomes in IV drug abusers, (ii) estimation of the time of HIV infection and the probability of developing AIDS after infection in IV drug abusers, (iii) estimation of seroprevalence and incidence in IV drug abusers, (iv) models for studying the role of cofactors that affect vulnerability and transmissibility of HIV, (v) mathematical modeling of AIDS risk and transmission among IV drug abusers and the heterosexual population. Other areas to be considered include AIDS case projection methodology, analysis of correlated categorical data and work on data from international sources. Furthermore the analysis of data arising from studies of AIDS in the research centers will continue to direct research focus as well as provide the opportunity to test methods and computer software which are developed as part of this research.