PIGSustain: Predicting the Impacts of Intensification and Future Changes on UK Pig Industry Resilience

PIGSustain：预测集约化和未来变化对英国养猪业弹性的影响

• 批准号: BB/N020790/1
• 负责人: Lisa Collins
• 金额: $ 214.3万
• 依托单位: University of Leeds
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2017 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=BB%2FN020790%2F1
• 关键词: PIGSustain; Predicting; Impacts; Intensification; Future

The global human population is expected to rise from 7.2 billion in 2015 to 9.6 billion by the middle of this century. At the same time, the average amount of meat each person consumes per year is steadily increasing, with global meat consumption predicted to double within the same time frame. In order to be able to feed this growing population, intensification of our agricultural systems will be necessary. However, while further intensification in agriculture might enable the industry to fulfill future meat demand, the sustainability of the industry as it currently stands is threatened by numerous external factors, such as competition for depleting natural resources, climate change, disease, and environmental concerns for which recent intensification of livestock production is, at least, partially responsible.At present, the situation is such that we do not have a continuous, objective and quantified understanding of the health and welfare of our national pig herd, and equally, we have no objective and quantified predictions of how this will be impacted by future changes to the industry through intensification, climate change, changes in global production and trade, and in consumer demand. Equally, we are unable to predict how resilient the UK pig industry is as a whole, and whether and how it will be able to remain stable in the face of such changes. This project will use a systems approach in order to understand how sustainable intensification and predicted climate changes are expected to impact on the pig industry as a whole - we will produce models to predict the impacts of intensification on the health, disease and welfare of the animals: how consumption patterns and retail prices are likely to be affected, how these changes will impact farmers, and how these in turn will impact on the health and welfare of the animals.We will collect data from a wide range of sources in order to assess how health and welfare are linked with climate, geography and other factors. Detailed, real-time measures of health and welfare on-farm are seriously lacking and a system for quickly, efficiently and accurately collecting and recording health and welfare measures on a continuous basis on-farm is urgently needed. We will develop a cutting-edge, automated computer vision system capable of collecting real-time information on health, welfare and productivity on-farm, which will provide us with a detailed understanding of how on-farm health and welfare measures match up against measures collected at the slaughterhouse. This system will be developed with a view to making it commercially available for continuous monitoring of pigs 24/7, with outputs for vets and farmers to understand the changes that have taken place within pens over a period of time. This system has been identified by representatives of the pig industry and pig vets as something which is sorely needed to supplement vet consults, in order to improve welfare management and auditing.We will collect retail data and consumer pattern and attitudes data to understand the socio- and geographical demographics underlying consumer behaviour. We will investigate how agricultural economics are affected by health and welfare issues, and develop predictive models of how these components of the pig industry system interact. We will investigate the links between disease prevalence and agricultural economics, market stability, and consumer choices. Using this information, we will develop a systems model to explain how each component is related to, and has the potential to influence each other. Using alternative future scenarios and predicted future trends for the different components of the pig industry within the system model, we will determine how resilient the UK pig industry is, and what factors are critical for the maintenance of future stability.

全球人口预计将从2015年的72亿增加到本世纪中叶的96亿。与此同时，每人每年的平均肉类消费量正在稳步增长，预计全球肉类消费量将在同一时间段内翻一番。为了能够养活不断增长的人口，我们的农业系统的集约化是必要的。然而，尽管农业的进一步集约化可能使该行业能够满足未来的肉类需求，但该行业目前的可持续性受到许多外部因素的威胁，例如对自然资源枯竭的竞争、气候变化、疾病和环境问题，而最近畜牧业生产的集约化至少要对这些因素负部分责任。目前的情况是，我们对我国猪群的健康和福利没有一个持续、客观和量化的了解，同样，我们也没有客观和量化的预测，关于集约化、气候变化、全球生产和贸易变化以及消费者需求等未来行业变化对健康和福利的影响。同样，我们无法预测英国养猪业作为一个整体的弹性有多大，以及它是否以及如何能够在面对这些变化时保持稳定。这个项目将使用一个系统的方法来理解可持续集约化和预测气候变化将影响整个养猪业——我们将生产模型预测的影响增强健康,疾病和动物福利:如何消费模式和零售价格可能会受到影响,这些变化将如何影响农民,这些反过来又会对动物的健康和福利的影响。我们将从广泛的来源收集数据，以评估健康和福利如何与气候、地理和其他因素联系起来。严重缺乏详细的、实时的农场卫生福利指标，迫切需要一种能够快速、高效、准确地持续收集和记录农场卫生福利指标的系统。我们将开发一种尖端的自动化计算机视觉系统，能够收集有关农场健康、福利和生产力的实时信息，这将使我们详细了解农场健康和福利措施如何与屠宰场收集的措施相匹配。开发该系统的目的是将其商业化，用于全天候连续监测猪，并为兽医和农民提供输出，以了解猪圈在一段时间内发生的变化。该系统已被养猪业代表和养猪兽医确定为急需补充兽医咨询的东西，以改善福利管理和审计。我们将收集零售数据、消费者模式和态度数据，以了解消费者行为背后的社会和地理统计数据。我们将研究农业经济如何受到健康和福利问题的影响，并开发猪业系统这些组成部分如何相互作用的预测模型。我们将调查疾病流行与农业经济、市场稳定性和消费者选择之间的联系。利用这些信息，我们将开发一个系统模型来解释每个组件是如何相互关联的，并且有可能相互影响。利用系统模型中养猪业不同组成部分的替代未来情景和预测未来趋势，我们将确定英国养猪业的弹性，以及维持未来稳定性的关键因素。

项目成果

Factors Influencing Individual Variation in Farm Animal Cognition and How to Account for These Statistically.

• DOI: 10.3389/fvets.2018.00193
• 发表时间: 2018
• 期刊: Frontiers in veterinary science
• 影响因子: 3.2
• 作者: Bushby EV;Friel M;Goold C;Gray H;Smith L;Collins LM
• 通讯作者: Collins LM

Is Magnesium Supplementation an Effective Nutritional Method to Reduce Stress in Domestic Pigs? A Systematic Review.

• DOI: 10.3389/fvets.2020.596205
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: Frontiers in veterinary science
• 影响因子: 3.2
• 作者: Bushby EV;Dye L;Collins LM
• 通讯作者: Collins LM

Judgment Bias During Gestation in Domestic Pigs.

• DOI: 10.3389/fvets.2022.881101
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Frontiers in veterinary science
• 影响因子: 3.2

A mathematical model of national-level food system sustainability

国家级粮食系统可持续性的数学模型

• DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2012.08355
• 发表时间: 2020
• 作者: Goold C

Book Review: Why Demography Matters, Danny Dorling and Stuart Gietel-Basten. Published by Policy Press 2018

书评：为什么人口统计学很重要，丹尼·多林和斯图尔特·吉特尔-巴斯滕。

• DOI: 10.1007/s12061-018-9290-6
• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy
• 影响因子: 1.9
• 作者: James W