Greenhouse Gas Removal Plus (GGR+): Sustainable Treescapes Demonstrator & Decision Tools

温室气体去除增强版 (GGR)：可持续林景演示器

• 批准号: BB/V011588/1
• 负责人: Ian Bateman
• 金额: $ 549.42万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF EXETER
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2021 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=BB%2FV011588%2F1
• 关键词: Greenhouse; Gas; Removal; Plus; GGR+

Due to the need for climate change action, UK Government has committed to the ambitious task of achieving 'net zero' greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. However, some emissions from farming, aviation and other activities are very difficult to eliminate. So to reach net zero the UK must also directly remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere amounting to the equivalent of 100 million tonnes of carbon dioxide/year. Of the Greenhouse Gas Removal (GGR) options available, increasing the carbon stored in the UK's 'treescapes' (forests, hedgerows etc.) has the greatest potential, the lowest cost, and can be started immediately. Planting woodlands can store carbon in standing trees, in forest soils and in timber products. For these reasons, the UK is committed to a huge increase in forest cover. However, our understanding of all these processes and how they vary across locations and over time is incomplete. This major programme will gather evidence, address knowledge gaps and allow decision makers to understand the GGR consequences of different planting options. Woodlands can also deliver many other benefits, creating habitats to conserve wild species, enhancing water quality, regulating rainfall and reducing flood risk, and providing recreation (hence the "GGR+" title). GGR+ will examine all the diverse aspects of forestry to identify "The Right Tree in the Right Place". However, it is equally possible to plant the wrong tree in the wrong place. This can result in damage to biodiversity, and even cause some soils to release huge amounts of carbon into the atmosphere. Also, if certain types of agriculture are displaced, there could be higher imports of food from countries that destroy rainforests to increase farm yields. On top of this, climate change means that many risks (forest fires, extreme weather, disease) are changing faster than ever. "The Right Tree in the Right Place" is not a simple proposition - if we are not careful, and don't consider the complexities properly, the UK's net zero tree planting strategy will be poorly designed, and at worst could result in forests that actually increase climate change. However, even understanding the consequences of planting in different locations is not enough to plan the future of the UK's forests. Land is typically privately owned and Government cannot dictate its use. Rather they need to create the conditions and incentives needed for owners to decide to plant trees. Consequently, GGR+ will also undertake the economic research needed to turn science advice into practice. This challenge cannot be addressed by scientists alone, and the GGR+ partners include UK land use policy makers, including all of the Forestry authorities, the Defra teams responsible for forestry, climate and agriculture (who will use GGR+ to plant 30,000ha/year), as well as the Ministry of Defence (which has huge land holdings). From the private and NGO sectors our partners include massive land owners such as Network Rail and the National Trust (who together will fund over 74,000ha of planting based on GGR+ advice), as well as a network of over 1,400 farmers, the timber and building sector and many other stakeholders. Together with our partners, GGR+ will design innovative "decision support tools"; bespoke software allowing users to examine the effects of a tree planting investment or policy in terms of greenhouse gas storage, food production, incomes of those involved, effects on biodiversity, water quality, flooding, recreation etc. Perhaps most revolutionary, this tool will allow users to specify what outcomes they want and then see what planting, policy or investments they need to get those outcomes. This is an exciting, highly interdisciplinary approach to answering the surprisingly challenging question of finding "The Right Tree in the Right Place" and setting the UK on the path to delivering net zero emissions by 2050.

由于气候变化行动的需要，英国政府致力于到2050年实现温室气体净零排放的宏伟任务。然而，来自农业、航空和其他活动的一些排放很难消除。因此，为了达到净零排放，英国还必须直接从大气中清除相当于1亿吨二氧化碳的温室气体。温室气体清除（GGR）的选择，增加碳储存在英国的'树'（森林，树篱等）潜力最大，成本最低，可以立即启动。种植林地可以将碳储存在直立的树木、森林土壤和木材产品中。因此，英国致力于大幅增加森林覆盖率。然而，我们对所有这些过程以及它们如何在不同地点和不同时间发生变化的理解是不完整的。这一主要方案将收集证据，解决知识差距，并使决策者能够了解不同种植方案的GGR后果。林地还可以提供许多其他好处，创造栖息地以保护野生物种，提高水质，调节降雨量和减少洪水风险，并提供娱乐（因此获得“GGR+”称号）。GGR+将检查林业的所有不同方面，以确定“正确的树木在正确的地方”。然而，也有可能在错误的地方种下错误的树。这可能导致生物多样性的破坏，甚至导致一些土壤向大气中释放大量的碳。此外，如果某些类型的农业被取代，可能会从破坏雨林以增加农业产量的国家进口更多的粮食。除此之外，气候变化意味着许多风险（森林火灾、极端天气、疾病）的变化速度比以往任何时候都快。“在正确的地方正确的树”不是一个简单的命题-如果我们不小心，不正确考虑复杂性，英国的净零树种植战略将设计得很差，最坏的情况可能导致森林实际上增加气候变化。然而，即使了解在不同地点种植的后果也不足以规划英国森林的未来。土地通常为私人所有，政府不能规定其用途。相反，他们需要创造必要的条件和激励措施，让业主决定植树。因此，GGR+还将开展将科学建议转化为实践所需的经济研究。这一挑战不能仅靠科学家来解决，GGR+的合作伙伴包括英国土地使用政策制定者，包括所有林业当局，负责林业，气候和农业的Defra团队（他们将使用GGR+种植30，000公顷/年），以及国防部（拥有大量土地）。在私营和非政府组织领域，我们的合作伙伴包括大型土地所有者，如Network Rail和National Trust（他们将根据GGR+建议共同资助超过74，000公顷的种植），以及由1，400多名农民、木材和建筑部门以及许多其他利益相关者组成的网络。GGR+将与我们的合作伙伴一起设计创新的“决策支持工具”;定制软件，允许用户检查植树投资或政策在温室气体储存，粮食生产，相关人员的收入，对生物多样性，水质，洪水，娱乐等的影响方面的影响，也许最具革命性的是，这个工具将允许用户指定他们想要的结果，然后看到什么种植，他们需要的政策或投资来获得这些结果。这是一个令人兴奋的，高度跨学科的方法来回答令人惊讶的挑战性问题，找到“正确的树在正确的地方”，并设置英国的道路上提供净零排放到2050年。

项目成果

Perspectives on valuing water quality improvements using stated preference methods.

• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2217456120
• 发表时间: 2023-05-02
• 期刊: PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
• 影响因子: 11.1
• 作者: Bateman, Ian J.;Keeler, Bonnie;Olmstead, Sheila M.;Whitehead, John
• 通讯作者: Whitehead, John

Modelling woodland recreation demand using geographical information systems: a benefit transfer study

使用地理信息系统模拟林地休闲需求：利益转移研究

• 发表时间: 1995
• 期刊: Working Paper - Centre for Social & Economic Research on the Global Environment
• 作者: Bateman I.J.

Quantifying the land-based opportunity carbon costs of onshore wind farms

• DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.132480
• 发表时间: 2022-06
• 期刊: Journal of Cleaner Production
• 影响因子: 11.1
• 作者: F. Albanito;S. Roberts;A. Shepherd;A. Hastings

Emulation of high-resolution land surface models using sparse Gaussian processes with application to JULES

• DOI: 10.5194/gmd-2021-205
• 发表时间: 2021-08
• 期刊: Geoscientific Model Development
• 影响因子: 5.1
• 作者: Evan Baker;A. Harper;D. Williamson;P. Challenor