Generating the responsible assessment of afforestation as a greenhouse gas removal 'technology'

我的研究项目的目的是调查和改进植树造林作为一种温室气体消除技术的评估，使用英国和葡萄牙作为比较案例研究。大规模植树造林是政府间气候变化专门委员会为实现《巴黎协定》提出的远低于工业化前水平2摄氏度的目标而提出的几个选项之一。然而，与其他消除温室气体的方法相比，公众对植树造林的参与是深刻的、长期的和丰富的：作为一项古老的人类实践，植树很难被称为一项新兴技术。在接下来的50年里，平衡土地使用变化的相互竞争的要求的必要性将变得越来越突出。大规模植树造林将影响土地系统、生态系统、农业、生物多样性、生计、社会经济和文化。这些影响很难在目前的评估中反映出来。找出如何在这个高度协商的领域做出基于证据的、公平的、平衡的、社会可接受的决定，是社会科学的一项关键任务。最近的研究发现，对陆基气候缓解方案进行“负责任的评估”是一个需要进一步调查的关键差距。然而，到目前为止，关于植树造林作为减少温室气体排放的一种选择的社会科学研究很少。进一步的研究对于推动对减缓气候变化的植树造林进行负责任评估的原则和调查将公众和社会技术或政策论述结合起来的潜在挑战和机会至关重要。有关新兴技术的公共知识的传统方法往往认为有必要对其进行“教育”。这个项目从相反的方向出发，认为专家机构需要更好地听取已经存在的公共知识和价值观，并采取行动。包容性是负责任评估的一个关键方面，但这项工作也意在增进对“机构反身性”的理解：机构反思自己的规范和做法。英国是欧洲森林密度最小的国家之一，但通过目前由UKRI资助的温室气体减少研究计划，国家对不同的温室气体减少技术(包括大规模植树造林)给予了关注，这为研究这一领域提供了一个及时的机会。葡萄牙是一个有趣的参照物，是欧洲森林密度最大的国家之一，一些大规模的植树造林项目已经在进行中。然而，由于大量的非本土桉树种植园，自2017年以来每年都有大规模的森林火灾，以及对气候变化问题的高度认识，公共团体和政策制定者可能会有一套与英国不同的视角和优先事项。在实现其他陆基目标的同时，创造可实现的脱碳途径，将需要对各种选择进行新的、负责任的评估，评估既广泛又深入。该项目将绘制现有的科学、政策和公共界面与植树造林的图谱，并将利用这些见解来研究和推进对植树造林以消除温室气体的负责任评估。目标是以科学和技术研究为基础，借鉴建构主义对环境科学-决策界面的理解，为将公共团体纳入未来气候政策评估进程和提高相关机构的自反性提出务实、详细的建议。一项关键成果将是一套对植树造林作为温室气体消除技术进行负责任评估的指南。这项紧迫研究的结果可能对政策制定者、科学家和公众都有很大的实际贡献，因为各国正在努力协调自己的社会和经济轨迹--以及他们的多重视角--与远低于2摄氏度的全球变暖目标相协调。

The aim of my research project is to investigate and improve the assessment of afforestation as a greenhouse gas removal 'technology', using the UK and Portugal as comparative case studies. Large-scale afforestation is one of several options proposed by the IPCC to reach the Paris Agreement's target of 'well below' 2C above pre-industrial levels. However, in contrast to other greenhouse gas removal approaches, public involvement with afforestation is deep, longstanding and rich: as an ancient human practice, it is difficult to call tree planting an 'emerging technology'. The need to balance competing claims for land-use change will become increasingly prominent over the next 50 years. Implementing afforestation on a large scale will affect land systems, ecosystems, agriculture, biodiversity, livelihoods, socio-economy and culture. These effects are difficult to capture within current assessments. Figuring out how to make evidence-based, equitable, balanced, socially acceptable decisions in this highly negotiated space is a crucial task for the social sciences. Recent research has identified 'responsible assessment' of land-based climate mitigation options as a key gap needing further investigation. However, to date, there have been very few social science studies on afforestation as an option for greenhouse gas reduction. Further research is vital to advance principles for responsible assessments of afforestation for climate mitigation and to investigate the potential challenges and opportunities for integrating public and socio-technical or policy discourses. Conventional approaches to public knowledge around emerging technology tend to assume the need to 'educate'. This project approaches from the opposite direction, positing that expert institutions need to listen better to, and act on, public knowledges and values that already exist. Inclusion is a key dimension of responsible assessment, but this work also intends to advance understanding of 'institutional reflexivity': institutions reflecting on their own norms and practices. The UK is among the least densely forested countries in Europe, but national attention has been given to different greenhouse gas reduction technologies (including large-scale afforestation) via the current UKRI-funded Greenhouse Gas Reduction Research Programme, which provides a timely opportunity to investigate this research area. Portugal serves as an interesting comparator, as one of the most densely forested countries in Europe, and with some large-scale afforestation projects already happening. However, with large plantations of non-native eucalyptus, massive forest fires every year since 2017 and a high awareness of climate change issues, public groups and policymakers may have a different set of perspectives and priorities than in the UK. Creating realisable pathways to decarbonisation, while delivering other land-based targets will require new, responsible appraisals of the options, which are both wide-ranging and in-depth. This project will map the existing sciencepolicy and public interfaces with afforestation and will use these insights to study and advance responsible assessments of afforestation for greenhouse gas removal. With a basis in science and technology studies and drawing on constructivist understandings of the environmental science-policymaking interface, the objective is to generate pragmatic, detailed recommendations for including public groups in future climate policy assessment processes, and for increasing the reflexivity of relevant institutions. A key output will be a set of guidelines for responsible assessment of afforestation as a greenhouse gas removal technology. The results of this pressing research have potentially a large practical contribution for policymakers, scientists and publics alike, as countries struggle to reconcile their societal and economic trajectories - and their multiple perspectives - with global warming targets of 'well below' 2C.