Greenhouse Gas Removal in the Land Sector - Addressing the Gaps (GGRiLS - Gaps)

土地部门的温室气体去除 - 解决差距（GGRiLS - 差距）

• 批准号: NE/P019765/1
• 负责人: Joanna House
• 金额: $ 30.9万
• 依托单位: University of Bristol
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2018 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FP019765%2F1
• 关键词: Greenhouse; Gas; Removal; Land; Sector

Greenhouse Gas Removal in the Land Sector - Addressing the Gaps (GGRiLS - Gaps) is a Topic-specific proposal under the GGR programme. The Paris agreement commits countries to limit climate warming to "well below 2 degrees C". Modelling studies show that it is unlikely that we will be able to meet the target without removing a significant quantity of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. Options for achieving this include large-scale afforestation, forest management, agricultural management to increase the uptake of carbon in soils, and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage of emissions (BECCS). 196 countries have submitted emission reduction pledges (Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, INDCs) with the land sector, accounting for about a quarter of planned mitigation, mainly from reduced deforestation and forest management. A large gap exists between pledged mitigation and what is necessary to achieve a 2 degrees target. Specific information is necessary on land sector Greenhouse Gas Removal (GGR) options in order to analyse their potential contribution to closing the emissions gap, and raise the ambition of countries' future pledges. For GGR options to be realised it is necessary for them to be incentivised, and for this it is necessary for them to be assessed on a country basis. This should include both positive and negative consequences for the environment, food, and sustainable development. Country-level assessment is necessary to enable national policy makers to identify the level of ambition that would be needed to achieve given temperature targets, and what is feasible and desirable, at the scale at which decisions are made. This will inform the targeting of international finance and capacity building. This project will quantify the emissions reduction gap in the land sector at a country level (for major countries). This will be done through an analysis of existing model scenarios and outputs, supplemented with outputs across the GGR programme as they become available. Country case studies will be identified for a deeper analysis of GGR potential using satellite data on land cover and biomass, and using a forest carbon accounting model. This information will be used in dialogues between scientists and policy makers to identify options and incentivise activity, laying out pathways for raising ambition in GGR deployment. Methods for Monitoring Reporting and Verification (MRV) of greenhouse gas emissions and sinks vary across countries and across scientific approaches. Transparency in MRV, as required under the Paris Agreement, is essential to ensure mitigation effectiveness and further incentivise sustainable activity. This project will clarify the methodological approaches that are appropriate to adopt for accurately assessing GGR potentials and options within the land sector and across sectors (e.g. energy), working with both the science and policy communities. It will achieve breakthroughs in the joining up of approaches from several disciplines to support action towards the Paris agreement in the Land Sector.

《土地部门温室气体减排-解决差距》（GGRiLS -差距）是《土地部门温室气体减排》计划下的一项专题提案。《巴黎协定》要求各国将气候变暖控制在“远低于2摄氏度”。模拟研究表明，如果不从大气中清除大量温室气体，我们不太可能实现这一目标。实现这一目标的选择包括大规模造林、森林管理、增加土壤碳吸收的农业管理，以及具有碳捕获和排放储存的生物能源（BECCS）。196个国家已与土地部门提交了减排承诺（国家自主贡献预案），约占计划缓解的四分之一，主要来自减少毁林和森林管理。在承诺的缓解量与实现2度目标所需的量之间存在很大差距。为了分析陆地部门温室气体减排（GGR）方案对缩小排放差距的潜在贡献，并提高各国未来承诺的雄心，有必要提供具体的信息。为了实现GGR方案，有必要对它们进行激励，为此，有必要在国家基础上对它们进行评估。这应包括对环境、粮食和可持续发展的积极和消极影响。国家层面的评估是必要的，以使国家决策者能够确定实现给定温度目标所需的雄心水平，以及在决策的规模下，什么是可行和可取的。这将为国际金融和能力建设的目标提供参考。该项目将在国家一级（主要国家）量化土地部门的减排差距。这将通过对现有模型情景和产出的分析来完成，并辅以整个GGR方案的产出。将确定国家案例研究，以便利用关于土地覆盖和生物量的卫星数据以及使用森林碳核算模型对GGR潜力进行更深入的分析。这些信息将用于科学家和决策者之间的对话，以确定备选方案和激励活动，为提高GGR部署的雄心制定途径。温室气体排放和汇的监测、报告和核查（MRV）方法因国家和不同的科学方法而异。按照《巴黎协定》的要求，MRV的透明度对于确保减缓效果和进一步激励可持续活动至关重要。该项目将与科学界和政策界合作，阐明适合于准确评估土地部门和跨部门（如能源）的GGR潜力和选择的方法方法。它将在结合多个学科的方法方面取得突破，以支持在土地部门采取行动实现《巴黎协定》。

项目成果

Critical adjustment of land mitigation pathways for assessing countries' climate progress

• DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01033-6
• 发表时间: 2021-04-26
• 期刊: NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
• 影响因子: 30.7
• 作者: Grassi, Giacomo;Stehfest, Elke;Popp, Alexander
• 通讯作者: Popp, Alexander

Reconciling global-model estimates and country reporting of anthropogenic forest CO2 sinks

• DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0283-x
• 发表时间: 2018-10-01
• 期刊: NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
• 影响因子: 30.7
• 作者: Grassi, Giacomo;House, Jo;Zaehle, Soenke
• 通讯作者: Zaehle, Soenke

Wrong premises mislead the conclusions by Kallio et al. on forest reference levels in the EU

• DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2018.07.002
• 发表时间: 2018-10-01
• 期刊: FOREST POLICY AND ECONOMICS
• 影响因子: 4
• 作者: Grassi, G.;Camia, A.;Vizzarri, M.
• 通讯作者: Vizzarri, M.

Regional variation in the effectiveness of methane-based and land-based climate mitigation options

• DOI: 10.5194/esd-2020-24
• 发表时间: 2020-06
• 期刊: Earth System Dynamics
• 影响因子: 7.3
• 作者: G. Hayman;E. Comyn‐Platt;C. Huntingford;A. Harper;Tom Powell;P. Cox;William J. Collins;C. Webber;J. Lowe;S. Sitch;J. House;J. Doelman;D. V. van Vuuren;S. Chadburn;E. Burke;N. Gedney

Large carbon sink potential of secondary forests in the Brazilian Amazon to mitigate climate change.

• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-22050-1
• 发表时间: 2021-03-19
• 期刊: Nature communications
• 影响因子: 16.6
• 作者: Heinrich VHA;Dalagnol R;Cassol HLG;Rosan TM;de Almeida CT;Silva Junior CHL;Campanharo WA;House JI;Sitch S;Hales TC;Adami M;Anderson LO;Aragão LEOC
• 通讯作者: Aragão LEOC