Greenhouse Gas Removal in the Land Sector - Addressing the Gaps (GGRiLS - Gaps)

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Greenhouse Gas Removal in the Land Sector - Addressing the Gaps (GGRiLS - Gaps) is a Topic-specific proposal under the GGR programme. The Paris agreement commits countries to limit climate warming to "well below 2 degrees C". Modelling studies show that it is unlikely that we will be able to meet the target without removing a significant quantity of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. Options for achieving this include large-scale afforestation, forest management, agricultural management to increase the uptake of carbon in soils, and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage of emissions (BECCS). 196 countries have submitted emission reduction pledges (Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, INDCs) with the land sector, accounting for about a quarter of planned mitigation, mainly from reduced deforestation and forest management. A large gap exists between pledged mitigation and what is necessary to achieve a 2 degrees target. Specific information is necessary on land sector Greenhouse Gas Removal (GGR) options in order to analyse their potential contribution to closing the emissions gap, and raise the ambition of countries' future pledges. For GGR options to be realised it is necessary for them to be incentivised, and for this it is necessary for them to be assessed on a country basis. This should include both positive and negative consequences for the environment, food, and sustainable development. Country-level assessment is necessary to enable national policy makers to identify the level of ambition that would be needed to achieve given temperature targets, and what is feasible and desirable, at the scale at which decisions are made. This will inform the targeting of international finance and capacity building. This project will quantify the emissions reduction gap in the land sector at a country level (for major countries). This will be done through an analysis of existing model scenarios and outputs, supplemented with outputs across the GGR programme as they become available. Country case studies will be identified for a deeper analysis of GGR potential using satellite data on land cover and biomass, and using a forest carbon accounting model. This information will be used in dialogues between scientists and policy makers to identify options and incentivise activity, laying out pathways for raising ambition in GGR deployment. Methods for Monitoring Reporting and Verification (MRV) of greenhouse gas emissions and sinks vary across countries and across scientific approaches. Transparency in MRV, as required under the Paris Agreement, is essential to ensure mitigation effectiveness and further incentivise sustainable activity. This project will clarify the methodological approaches that are appropriate to adopt for accurately assessing GGR potentials and options within the land sector and across sectors (e.g. energy), working with both the science and policy communities. It will achieve breakthroughs in the joining up of approaches from several disciplines to support action towards the Paris agreement in the Land Sector.