21-EEID US-UK Collab: Long-Distance Dispersal and Disease Spread Under Increased Ecological Complexity

21-EEID 美英合作：生态复杂性增加下的长距离传播和疾病传播

• 批准号: BB/X005224/1
• 负责人: Michael Tildesley
• 金额: $ 68.7万
• 依托单位: University of Warwick
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2023 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=BB%2FX005224%2F1
• 关键词: 21; EEID; US; UK; Collab

This project will focus upon infectious pathogens that have the capacity to transmit infection over a long distance. We will explore how this long distance spread is affected by a range of different characteristics that include the initial source of the outbreak, the way that the virus spreads and the spatial dispersal in the early stages of the outbreak. We will investigate this for a range of diseases of plants, livestock and humans that will include foot-and-mouth disease, West Nile Virus, sudden oak death, cucurbit downy mildew, hop powdery mildew and wheat stripe rust.The proposed research will add to our knowledge of disease transmission and spread by incorporating epidemic complexities that are not always considered in epidemic models and theory. The work will improve our understanding of disease spread, and is crucial to predicting the spread of epidemic invasions and designing disease control strategies. The work is potentially transformative as it will provide a rare opportunity to test hypotheses in natural and manipulative field experiments, and because the applicability of a broad diversity of plant, animal, and human pathogens with fat-tailed dispersal kernels will be rigorously evaluated via the interdisciplinary modeling efforts. Conclusions should apply over a very wide range of spatial scales due to the nature of these pathogens that have the potential for long-distance dispersal, and because empirical data used in the project will have been derived over varying spatial scales.Several participants have long-term knowledge of their disease system that will enable them to investigation optimization of mitigations in terms of policies, societal impacts, and epidemic spread. For foot-and-mouth disease, indirect costs (those beyond direct loss of livestock) as a result of livestock movement restrictions, export bans and closure of the countryside that can affect tourism will be evaluated. The disparity between local costs (to individual farms) and nationwide costs (to the economy), whereby certain individuals may be disproportionately affected by a given intervention policy will also be evaluated. Through collaboration with the Oregon Department of Forestry, the sudden oak death group will sponsor workshops on how new research influences disease management, value of timber, loss of trade, cost of management, etc., as well as impacts on Native American and Hispanic communities. The West Nile Virus group will be involved with "Training the Trainers" activities relative to optimum management of that disease. The cucurbit downy mildew and hop powdery mildew groups will consider optimal control policies that are identifiable when spatial and temporal dynamics of epidemics are considered. They will do this by formulating a linked epidemiological and economic model of spread of hop powdery mildew and cucurbit downy mildew that considers management interventions that delay disease onset, therapeutics that reduce the rate of disease spread, and differential susceptibility of hosts in a landscape with multiple disease epicenters with and without collective actions of individuals. The wheat stripe rust group will continue their long-time associations with wheat growers of Oregon and applying ecological genetics to the sustainable management of wheat diseases.The outcomes of this grant will provide vital insights into the risks associated with these pathogens and will help to inform contingency planning should these viruses emerge in the future.

该项目将集中于具有长距离传播感染能力的感染性病原体。我们将探讨这种长距离传播如何受到一系列不同特征的影响，这些特征包括爆发的初始来源，病毒传播的方式和在爆发早期阶段的空间分散方式。我们将为包括植物，牲畜和人类的一系列疾病进行调查，这些疾病将包括脚和口疾病，西尼罗河病毒，突然的橡木死亡，葫芦状downdy霉菌，啤酒花霉菌和小麦条纹生锈。拟议的研究将增加我们对疾病传播的知识并通过在流行病模型中融合了流行病的知识，并扩散了疾病的传播。这项工作将提高我们对疾病传播的理解，并且对于预测流行病的传播和设计疾病控制策略至关重要。这项工作具有潜在的变革性，因为它将提供一个难得的机会来测试自然和操纵现场实验中的假设，并且由于植物，动物和人类病原体具有脂肪分散核的适用性将通过跨学科建模工作严格评估。由于这些病原体的性质，该结论应适用于非常广泛的空间量表，这些病原体具有长距离分散的可能性，并且由于该项目中使用的经验数据将在不同的空间量表上得出。各个空间参与者对他们的疾病系统具有长期的知识，使他们能够在政治上及其在政治上的良好范围进行调查，并在政治上进行了调查的优化。对于小口疾病，由于牲畜运动的限制，出口禁令和可能影响旅游业的乡村的关闭，间接成本（超出了牲畜直接流失的费用）将得到评估。当地成本（个人农场）与全国性成本（对经济）之间的差异，这些人可能会受到特定干预政策的不成比例影响。通过与俄勒冈州林业部的合作，突然的Oak死亡集团将赞助有关新研究如何影响疾病管理，木材价值，贸易损失，管理成本等以及对美洲原住民和西班牙裔社区的影响。西尼罗河病毒组将与“培训培训师”活动有关，相对于该疾病的最佳管理。杯子毛霉菌和啤酒花粉霉菌将考虑当考虑流行病的空间和时间动态时可识别的最佳控制策略。他们将通过制定啤酒花霉菌和葫芦的传播的连接的流行病学和经济模型，该模型考虑了延迟疾病发作的管理干预措施，降低疾病传播率的治疗剂以及宿主在具有多种疾病的景观中的宿主易感性的易感性以及具有集体行为的景观景观的敏感性。小麦条纹锈病将继续与俄勒冈州小麦种植者的长期关联，并将生态遗传学应用于小麦疾病的可持续管理。这笔赠款的结果将为与这些病原体相关的风险提供重要的见解，并将有助于将这些病毒计划在未来出现，以便为您提供帮助。