21-EEID US-UK Collab: Long-Distance Dispersal and Disease Spread Under Increased Ecological Complexity

该项目将侧重于具有远距离传播感染能力的传染性病原体。我们将探讨这种长距离传播如何受到一系列不同特征的影响，这些特征包括疫情的最初来源、病毒传播的方式以及疫情早期阶段的空间传播。我们将调查一系列植物，牲畜和人类的疾病，包括口蹄疫，西尼罗河病毒，橡树猝死，葫芦科植物霜霉病，啤酒花白粉病和小麦条锈病。拟议的研究将增加我们对疾病传播和传播的知识，通过纳入流行病的复杂性，并不总是考虑在流行病模型和理论。这项工作将提高我们对疾病传播的理解，对预测流行病入侵的传播和设计疾病控制策略至关重要。这项工作具有潜在的变革性，因为它将提供一个难得的机会来测试自然和操纵现场实验中的假设，并且因为具有肥尾扩散内核的植物，动物和人类病原体的广泛多样性的适用性将通过跨学科建模工作进行严格评估。由于这些病原体具有远距离传播的潜力，并且项目中使用的经验数据将在不同的空间尺度上得出，因此结论应适用于非常广泛的空间尺度。一些参与者对他们的疾病系统有长期的了解，这将使他们能够调查政策，社会影响和流行病传播方面的缓解措施的优化。对于口蹄疫，将评估因限制牲畜流动、禁止出口和关闭农村而可能影响旅游业的间接费用（牲畜直接损失以外的费用）。还将评估地方成本（对单个农场）和全国成本（对经济）之间的差异，其中某些人可能会受到特定干预政策的不成比例的影响。通过与俄勒冈州林业部的合作，橡树猝死组织将赞助关于新研究如何影响疾病管理、木材价值、贸易损失、管理成本等的研讨会，以及对美洲土著和西班牙裔社区的影响。西尼罗河病毒小组将参与与该疾病的最佳管理有关的“培训教员”活动。葫芦科植物霜霉病和啤酒花白粉病小组将考虑最佳控制政策，这些政策在考虑流行病的空间和时间动态时是可识别的。他们将通过制定一个相关的流行病学和经济模型来传播啤酒花白粉病和葫芦科植物霜霉病，该模型考虑延迟疾病发作的管理干预措施，降低疾病传播速度的治疗方法，以及在具有多个疾病震中的景观中宿主的不同易感性，有和没有个人的集体行动。小麦条锈病小组将继续与俄勒冈州的小麦种植者保持长期联系，并将生态遗传学应用于小麦病害的可持续管理。这笔赠款的成果将为了解与这些病原体相关的风险提供重要见解，并将有助于为未来出现这些病毒时的应急计划提供信息。

This project will focus upon infectious pathogens that have the capacity to transmit infection over a long distance. We will explore how this long distance spread is affected by a range of different characteristics that include the initial source of the outbreak, the way that the virus spreads and the spatial dispersal in the early stages of the outbreak. We will investigate this for a range of diseases of plants, livestock and humans that will include foot-and-mouth disease, West Nile Virus, sudden oak death, cucurbit downy mildew, hop powdery mildew and wheat stripe rust.The proposed research will add to our knowledge of disease transmission and spread by incorporating epidemic complexities that are not always considered in epidemic models and theory. The work will improve our understanding of disease spread, and is crucial to predicting the spread of epidemic invasions and designing disease control strategies. The work is potentially transformative as it will provide a rare opportunity to test hypotheses in natural and manipulative field experiments, and because the applicability of a broad diversity of plant, animal, and human pathogens with fat-tailed dispersal kernels will be rigorously evaluated via the interdisciplinary modeling efforts. Conclusions should apply over a very wide range of spatial scales due to the nature of these pathogens that have the potential for long-distance dispersal, and because empirical data used in the project will have been derived over varying spatial scales.Several participants have long-term knowledge of their disease system that will enable them to investigation optimization of mitigations in terms of policies, societal impacts, and epidemic spread. For foot-and-mouth disease, indirect costs (those beyond direct loss of livestock) as a result of livestock movement restrictions, export bans and closure of the countryside that can affect tourism will be evaluated. The disparity between local costs (to individual farms) and nationwide costs (to the economy), whereby certain individuals may be disproportionately affected by a given intervention policy will also be evaluated. Through collaboration with the Oregon Department of Forestry, the sudden oak death group will sponsor workshops on how new research influences disease management, value of timber, loss of trade, cost of management, etc., as well as impacts on Native American and Hispanic communities. The West Nile Virus group will be involved with "Training the Trainers" activities relative to optimum management of that disease. The cucurbit downy mildew and hop powdery mildew groups will consider optimal control policies that are identifiable when spatial and temporal dynamics of epidemics are considered. They will do this by formulating a linked epidemiological and economic model of spread of hop powdery mildew and cucurbit downy mildew that considers management interventions that delay disease onset, therapeutics that reduce the rate of disease spread, and differential susceptibility of hosts in a landscape with multiple disease epicenters with and without collective actions of individuals. The wheat stripe rust group will continue their long-time associations with wheat growers of Oregon and applying ecological genetics to the sustainable management of wheat diseases.The outcomes of this grant will provide vital insights into the risks associated with these pathogens and will help to inform contingency planning should these viruses emerge in the future.