21-EEID US-UK Collab: Long-Distance Dispersal and Disease Spread Under Increased Ecological Complexity

该项目将把重点放在能够远距离传播感染的传染性病原体上。我们将探讨这种远距离传播如何受到一系列不同特征的影响，这些特征包括疫情的初始源头、病毒传播的方式以及疫情早期阶段的空间传播。我们将研究一系列植物、牲畜和人类的疾病，包括口蹄疫、西尼罗河病毒、橡树猝死、葫芦霜霉病、啤酒花白粉病和小麦条锈病。拟议的研究将通过纳入流行病模型和理论中不总是考虑的流行病复杂性来增加我们对疾病传播和传播的知识。这项工作将提高我们对疾病传播的理解，对于预测疫情入侵的传播和设计疾病控制策略至关重要。这项工作具有潜在的变革性，因为它将提供一个难得的机会，在自然和人工现场实验中测试假说，因为通过跨学科的建模工作，将严格评估广泛多样性的植物、动物和人类病原体与肥尾传播内核的适用性。由于这些病原体的性质具有远距离传播的潜力，而且项目中使用的经验数据将在不同的空间尺度上获得，因此结论应该适用于非常广泛的空间范围。一些参与者对他们的疾病系统有长期的了解，这将使他们能够从政策、社会影响和流行病传播方面调查缓解措施的优化。对于口蹄疫，将评估可能影响旅游业的牲畜流动限制、出口禁令和农村关闭造成的间接成本(超过直接牲畜损失的成本)。还将评估地方成本(对单个农场的成本)和全国成本(对经济的成本)之间的差异，即某些个人可能受到特定干预政策的不成比例的影响。通过与俄勒冈州林业部的合作，橡树猝死组织将主办研讨会，讨论新研究如何影响疾病管理、木材价值、贸易损失、管理成本等，以及对美洲原住民和西班牙裔社区的影响。西尼罗河病毒小组将参与有关该疾病最佳管理的“培训员培训”活动。葫芦科霜霉病和啤酒花白粉病群体将考虑在考虑流行病的空间和时间动态时可确定的最佳控制策略。他们将通过制定啤酒花白粉病和葫芦霜霉病传播的流行病学和经济学关联模型来实现这一点，该模型考虑了延迟疾病发病的管理干预措施、降低疾病传播率的疗法，以及在有和没有个人集体行动的多个疾病中心的情况下宿主的不同易感性。小麦条锈病小组将继续与俄勒冈州的小麦种植者保持长期的联系，并将生态遗传学应用于小麦疾病的可持续管理。这项赠款的结果将为与这些病原体相关的风险提供重要的见解，并将有助于在未来出现这些病毒时制定应急计划。

This project will focus upon infectious pathogens that have the capacity to transmit infection over a long distance. We will explore how this long distance spread is affected by a range of different characteristics that include the initial source of the outbreak, the way that the virus spreads and the spatial dispersal in the early stages of the outbreak. We will investigate this for a range of diseases of plants, livestock and humans that will include foot-and-mouth disease, West Nile Virus, sudden oak death, cucurbit downy mildew, hop powdery mildew and wheat stripe rust.The proposed research will add to our knowledge of disease transmission and spread by incorporating epidemic complexities that are not always considered in epidemic models and theory. The work will improve our understanding of disease spread, and is crucial to predicting the spread of epidemic invasions and designing disease control strategies. The work is potentially transformative as it will provide a rare opportunity to test hypotheses in natural and manipulative field experiments, and because the applicability of a broad diversity of plant, animal, and human pathogens with fat-tailed dispersal kernels will be rigorously evaluated via the interdisciplinary modeling efforts. Conclusions should apply over a very wide range of spatial scales due to the nature of these pathogens that have the potential for long-distance dispersal, and because empirical data used in the project will have been derived over varying spatial scales.Several participants have long-term knowledge of their disease system that will enable them to investigation optimization of mitigations in terms of policies, societal impacts, and epidemic spread. For foot-and-mouth disease, indirect costs (those beyond direct loss of livestock) as a result of livestock movement restrictions, export bans and closure of the countryside that can affect tourism will be evaluated. The disparity between local costs (to individual farms) and nationwide costs (to the economy), whereby certain individuals may be disproportionately affected by a given intervention policy will also be evaluated. Through collaboration with the Oregon Department of Forestry, the sudden oak death group will sponsor workshops on how new research influences disease management, value of timber, loss of trade, cost of management, etc., as well as impacts on Native American and Hispanic communities. The West Nile Virus group will be involved with "Training the Trainers" activities relative to optimum management of that disease. The cucurbit downy mildew and hop powdery mildew groups will consider optimal control policies that are identifiable when spatial and temporal dynamics of epidemics are considered. They will do this by formulating a linked epidemiological and economic model of spread of hop powdery mildew and cucurbit downy mildew that considers management interventions that delay disease onset, therapeutics that reduce the rate of disease spread, and differential susceptibility of hosts in a landscape with multiple disease epicenters with and without collective actions of individuals. The wheat stripe rust group will continue their long-time associations with wheat growers of Oregon and applying ecological genetics to the sustainable management of wheat diseases.The outcomes of this grant will provide vital insights into the risks associated with these pathogens and will help to inform contingency planning should these viruses emerge in the future.