Modelling to inform interventions during Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza outbreaks in Great Britain

禽流感是一种高度传染性的疾病，对野生鸟类和家禽都有影响。无论是在英国还是在世界各地，家禽养殖业都因这种疾病而遭受重大经济损失。英国2021-22年的疫情是该国历史上规模最大的一次，预计季节性疫情将继续发生。在一系列疾病爆发期间，数学模型越来越多地被用于告知未来情景和指导控制措施。该项目涉及与英国政府动植物卫生局(APHA)合作，在英国周围开发一个全国范围的禽流感传播数学模型。它建立在我们之前在2021-22年疫情期间与APHA合作的基础上，当时我们花了六周时间开发了一个初步传播模型，以预测病毒未来的传播并指导控制干预。在目前的项目中，我们将在以前快速反应研究的基础上，利用该项目较长的时间尺度来开发一个高度严谨的灵活建模框架。这包括将传播模型的参数与一系列数据源进行匹配，并考虑GB内家禽饲养场之间的传播和从其他地方输入的感染。通过与APHA的密切合作，我们将确保该模型可以在APHA的计算机系统上运行，使政策顾问能够使用它来指导未来疫情的干预。一旦我们开发了传播模型，我们将使用它来探索在未来GB疫情期间可以应用的一系列不同控制干预措施的有效性。我们与APHA合作的一个好处是，我们能够使用该模型来测试可以有效部署的实用战略。我们还将根据模型开发一个用户友好的软件工具和图形用户界面，允许用户自己更改模型参数并测试不同的控制干预措施，而不需要有关计算代码的专业知识。为了鼓励其他人使用该软件，我们将运行疫情模拟演习，向政策顾问提供模拟疫情数据，然后政策顾问将使用该工具来确定最佳干预措施。以前也曾针对一系列其他牲畜疾病进行过类似的演习。这项工作将在该项目第三年开始时进行，以便将任何反馈纳入模型和软件工具。我们还将为其他研究人员举办一个为期两天的工作坊，介绍模型框架和软件工具，并演示它们的使用。总而言之，这项计划将涉及开发一个国家流行病学模型资源，可用于在英国未来爆发禽流感时规划控制措施。它补充了现有的禽流感研究，提供了一种工具，供政策顾问在可预见的未来使用，以确定暴发期间的最佳干预措施。

Avian influenza is a highly contagious disease, affecting both wild birds and domestic poultry. The poultry industry suffers substantial economic losses due to this disease, both in Great Britain (GB) and around the world. The 2021-22 outbreak in GB has been the largest in the country's history, and seasonal outbreaks are expected to continue to occur.Mathematical models are increasingly used during outbreaks of a range of diseases to inform future scenarios and to guide control measures. This project involves developing a national-scale mathematical model of avian influenza transmission around GB, in collaboration with the UK Government's Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA). It builds on our previous work with APHA during the 2021-22 outbreak, in which we spent six weeks developing a preliminary transmission model to project future spread of the virus and to guide control interventions. In the current project, we will build on our previous rapid-response research, taking advantage of the longer timescale of this project to develop a flexible modelling framework with a high level of rigour. This includes fitting the parameters of the transmission model to a range of data sources, and accounting for both transmission between poultry premises within GB and importations of infection from elsewhere. By working closely with APHA, we will ensure that the model can be run on APHA computer systems, permitting its use by policy advisors to guide interventions in future outbreaks.Once we have developed the transmission model, we will use it to explore the effectiveness of a range of different control interventions that could be applied during future outbreaks in GB. A benefit of our collaboration with APHA is that we are in a position to use the model to test practical strategies that could be deployed effectively. We will also develop a user-friendly software tool and Graphical User Interface based on the model, allowing the user to change model parameters themselves and test different control interventions without requiring specialist knowledge about the computing code. To encourage others to use the software, we will run an outbreak simulation exercise in which we will provide simulated outbreak data to policy advisors, who will then use the tool to determine optimal interventions. Similar exercises have been conducted before for a range of other livestock diseases. This exercise will be conducted at the start of the third year of this project, enabling any feedback to be incorporated into the model and software tool. We will also run a two-day workshop for other researchers in which we describe the modelling framework and software tool, and demonstrate their use.In summary, this project will involve the development of a national epidemiological modelling resource that can be used to plan control measures during future avian influenza outbreaks in GB. It complements existing research on avian influenza by providing a tool that will be used by policy advisors for the foreseeable future to determine optimal interventions during outbreaks.