IDEAS Factory - Game theory and adaptive networks for smart evacuations.

IDEAS Factory - 用于智能疏散的博弈论和自适应网络。

• 批准号: EP/I005765/1
• 负责人: John Preston
• 金额: $ 110.16万
• 依托单位: University of East London
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2010 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=EP%2FI005765%2F1
• 关键词: IDEAS; Factory; Game; theory; adaptive

In the United Kingdom the evacuation of cities has not been a recent concern although incidents such as floods or acts of terrorism have meant that cities have had to be partially evacuated. Whether the area to be evacuated is a city district, a whole city or even a city region the way in which people behave and how they choose to share and receive information is paramount. In the pre and warning stages of an evacuation people will behave in different ways. Some individuals might have access to rumours that a crisis is about to occur (we call these weak signals) and start evacuating before the official order to do so. Others might have no access to information, may decide to act only when others do, or even ignore official warnings and remain in their homes (as was the case with Hurricane Katrina). During the evacuation there will also be communication between the authorities and emergency services and even between evacuees who might communicate through mobile telephones or social networks (such as twitter). Even at the end of the evacuation individuals will be making decisions about what to do (to stay in the evacuation zone or return to the city) and will stay in touch with others. In this project we consider that the ways in which individuals might behave in evacuations can be described using mathematical models and theories. One way of describing how people act as a collective is through agent based models, where individuals influence others information and behaviour, and another is game theory, where individual's decisions are strategic. By combining these we can predict how individuals might behave in an evacuation and determine the ways in which the emergency services and local responders might influence social networks and communication to help individuals and businesses evacuate safely and effectively. Of course, we anticipate that individuals might have access to new technologies in terms of communication so part of the project will look at how this may change the dynamics of evacuation.The project is informed throughout by current practice and will inform policy. Three cities (London, Birmingham and Carlisle) are chosen as case studies of how real evacuations might be assisted by the project. We will look at the evacuation plans in each of these cities, conduct focus groups and expert interviews with relevant parties, and analyse the use of social networks in actual evacuation or crisis events. Stakeholder groups will comment on the models which we produce and feedback as to how they can be adapted to work in practice.The results of the project will feed into how real evacuations work and inform the strategies and technologies used. We will produce both an interim and final report from the project and our impact plan will make sure that relevant parties are informed about the project and its results. One example of how the project might be useful is in terms of informing emergency planners and services in cities. If these planners know how social networks and mobile communications are used in an evacuation then they can tailor their messages accordingly. If, for example, there are two roads out of a city and analysis of social networks and traffic flow shows that individuals are intending to use the first road which would cause congestion then they can decide what sort of message would best direct people towards the second road, how long it would take to propagate and what effect it might have. In another example, road signs do not often give real time information about what is happening, which might be crucial during an evacuation. By using electronic and ambient signage not only can a message be sent but the effect of the message can be judged.

在联合王国，城市的疏散并不是最近的问题，尽管洪水或恐怖主义行为等事件意味着城市不得不部分疏散。无论要疏散的区域是一个城区、整个城市还是一个城市地区，人们的行为方式以及他们选择如何分享和接收信息都是至关重要的。在疏散的预警阶段，人们会有不同的行为方式。有些人可能会听到危机即将发生的谣言（我们称之为微弱信号），并在官方命令之前开始撤离。其他人可能无法获得信息，可能决定只在其他人采取行动时才采取行动，甚至无视官方警告，留在家中（如卡特里娜飓风）。在疏散过程中，当局和紧急服务部门之间，甚至疏散人员之间也会通过移动的电话或社交网络（如twitter）进行沟通。即使在疏散结束时，人们也会决定做什么（留在疏散区或返回城市），并与他人保持联系。在这个项目中，我们认为，个人在疏散中的行为方式可以用数学模型和理论来描述。描述人们如何作为一个集体的一种方法是通过基于代理的模型，其中个人影响他人的信息和行为，另一种是博弈论，其中个人的决定是战略性的。通过结合这些，我们可以预测个人在疏散中的行为，并确定应急服务和当地响应者可能影响社交网络和通信的方式，以帮助个人和企业安全有效地疏散。当然，我们预计个人可能会在通信方面获得新技术，因此该项目的一部分将研究这可能如何改变疏散的动态。该项目贯穿当前实践，并将为政策提供信息。三个城市（伦敦，伯明翰和卡莱尔）被选为案例研究如何真实的疏散可能会由该项目提供帮助。我们将研究每个城市的疏散计划，与相关方进行焦点小组和专家访谈，并分析社交网络在实际疏散或危机事件中的使用情况。利益相关者团体将对我们制作的模型发表评论，并就如何将其应用于实践提供反馈。该项目的结果将用于真实的疏散工作，并为所使用的战略和技术提供信息。我们将制作项目的中期和最终报告，我们的影响计划将确保相关各方了解项目及其结果。该项目如何发挥作用的一个例子是向城市的应急规划人员和服务部门提供信息。如果这些计划者知道如何在疏散中使用社交网络和移动的通信，那么他们就可以相应地调整他们的信息。例如，如果有两条道路出城，对社交网络和交通流量的分析表明，人们打算使用第一条道路，这将导致拥堵，那么他们可以决定什么样的信息最好地引导人们走向第二条道路，传播需要多长时间，以及可能产生什么影响。在另一个例子中，道路标志通常不提供关于正在发生的事情的真实的时间信息，这在疏散期间可能是至关重要的。通过使用电子和环境标志，不仅可以发送信息，而且可以判断信息的效果。

项目成果

How modular structure can simplify tasks on networks: parameterizing graph optimization by fast local community detection.

• DOI: 10.1098/rspa.2014.0224
• 发表时间: 2014-10-08
• 期刊: Proceedings. Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences
• 作者: Bui-Xuan BM;Jones NS
• 通讯作者: Jones NS

Dynamical clustering of exchange rates

• DOI: 10.1080/14697688.2012.668288
• 发表时间: 2009-05
• 期刊: Quantitative Finance
• 影响因子: 1.3
• 作者: Daniel J. Fenn;M. Porter;P. Mucha;M. McDonald;Stacy Williams;N. Johnson;Nick S. Jones

The mechanics of stochastic slowdown in evolutionary games

进化博弈中随机减速的机制

• DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.1204.3863
• 发表时间: 2012
• 作者: Altrock P

Temporal Evolution of Financial Market Correlations

金融市场相关性的时间演变

• DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.1011.3225
• 发表时间: 2010
• 作者: Fenn D

Mixing times in evolutionary game dynamics

进化博弈动力学中的混合时间

• DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.1204.0608
• 发表时间: 2012
• 作者: Black A