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Unified flood model with optimal zooming and linking at multiple scales

统一洪水模型，在多个尺度上具有最佳缩放和链接

基本信息

批准号：
EP/K031023/1
负责人：
Georges Kesserwani
金额：
$ 12.84万
依托单位：
University of Sheffield
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2014
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2014 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=EP%2FK031023%2F1
关键词：
Unified flood model optimal zooming

项目摘要

Flood hazards are increasing in frequency and magnitude and yet recent events have shown that our current knowledge and forecast of flooding is limited. Today 5.2 million properties in Britain are at risk of flooding where populations could lose their livelihood, homes and lives, and the UK government estimates the annual flood damage cost to be around £1 billion. Therefore, there are inevitable trends for improving the flood management technology to reduce the risk reaching and affecting people. It is certain that improved modelling and forecasting of floods is a core solution for transforming the flood management technology, as prioritized within the 2011-2030 UK Flood and Costal Erosion Risk Management (FCERM) research strategy.This first grant proposal will seek to build upon the outputs of the Flood Risk Management Research Consortium (FRMRC). It will elaborate and assess a new flood modelling framework featured by a comprehensive numerical solution hierarchy that enables zooming to optimum scale (spatial and temporal), automatic adaption to necessary accuracy and efficiency, and communication of flow information and restoration of terrain data across different scales. The research will be the first step to develop, assess and deliver a joined-up modelling approach for simulation of large-scale flood scenarios with genuine incorporation of inter-regional interactions across multiple scales. This will mean that efficient, credible and very accurate flood simulations will be affordable at wide ranging scales, and including domains with dense and coarse flow or landscape features.The model will be designed by further developing an advanced flood model based on the Discontinuous Galerkin (DG) finite element method, with the multi-scale decomposition facilitated by the fitness of Multi-Wavelets (MW). The model will take advantage of the MW scalability to allow: (i) adaptivity across spatial scales in an entirely solution-driven manner, and (ii) large time steps and condensed operational costs to boost efficiency. Meanwhile, the MW-DG model will be supported with relevant advances in computational hydraulics to enable practical usability. These will include solving the full 2D shallow water equations for accuracy and the incorporation of natural terrain data, and modelling wetting and drying processes for practical applications.This capability is beyond even most advanced current flood models which are limited to a particular formulation or scale of the mesh and may grow unsystematic uncertainty when applied to simulate compound flood problems. This will be the first time in the world that such a holistic approach will be taken to flood risk modelling. The project involves a partnership with Prof Müller's team at RWTH Aachen as a world leader in wavelet based modelling techniques. The novel flood model will be validated for real-scale flood scenarios (e.g. the Thamesmead district) and by comparing with current computer models for flood risk simulation recommended by the Environment Agency (EA).The project will exploit a new concept that is of strategic relevance to the software industry and will provide a novel tool that can be used by end-users to improve the basis of flood risk assessment. Therefore, the delivered science and model can make a real difference in the world and will directly benefit government agencies and consulting engineers responsible for flood risk planning and management, i.e. the EA and Defra, and industrial software developers, i.e. Innovyze Ltd.The outputs of the research can ultimately benefit the wider public with improved sustainable living with risk of flooding, and reduced socio-economic and insurance costs. Finally, industrial liaison and dissemination activities, including a project conference, are planned to ensure the take-up of the new technology and benefit international researchers and UK organizations.

洪水灾害的频率和规模都在增加，但最近的事件表明，我们目前对洪水的了解和预测是有限的。今天，英国有520万处房产面临洪水风险，人们可能会失去生计，家园和生命，英国政府估计每年的洪水损失约为10亿英镑。因此，提高洪水管理技术以减少影响和影响人类的风险是必然趋势。可以肯定的是，改进洪水建模和预测是洪水管理技术转型的核心解决方案，作为2011-2030年英国洪水和海岸侵蚀风险管理（FCERM）研究战略的优先事项。它将阐述和评估一个新的洪水建模框架，该框架具有全面的数值解层次结构，可以缩放到最佳尺度（空间和时间），自动适应必要的精度和效率，以及流量信息的通信和不同尺度的地形数据的恢复。该研究将是开发、评估和提供一种联合建模方法的第一步，用于模拟大规模洪水情景，真正纳入多个尺度的区域间相互作用。这将意味着高效、可靠和非常精确的洪水模拟将在大范围的尺度上进行，包括具有密集和粗糙水流或景观特征的区域。该模型将通过进一步开发基于不连续Galerkin（DG）有限元法的高级洪水模型来设计，并通过多小波（MW）的适应度促进多尺度分解。该模型将利用MW的可扩展性来实现：（i）以完全解决方案驱动的方式跨空间尺度的自适应性，以及（ii）大的时间步长和压缩的运营成本来提高效率。同时，MW-DG模型将得到计算水力学相关进展的支持，以实现实际可用性。这将包括解决全二维浅水方程的准确性和自然地形数据的结合，并模拟实际应用中的湿润和干燥过程，这种能力甚至超出了最先进的当前洪水模型，这些模型仅限于特定的配方或网格规模，并且在应用于模拟复合洪水问题时可能会增加非系统的不确定性。这将是世界上第一次采用这种整体方法进行洪水风险建模。该项目涉及与亚琛工业大学Müller教授团队的合作，该团队是基于小波的建模技术的世界领导者。新的洪水模型将被验证为真实规模的洪水情景（如Thamesmead区），并通过与环境局（EA）推荐的洪水风险模拟的当前计算机模型进行比较。该项目将开发一个新的概念，这是具有战略意义的软件行业，并将提供一个新的工具，可用于最终用户，以改善洪水风险评估的基础。因此，交付的科学和模型可以在世界上产生真实的影响，并将直接使负责洪水风险规划和管理的政府机构和咨询工程师（即EA和Defra）以及工业软件开发商（即Innovyze Ltd）受益。研究成果最终可以使更广泛的公众受益，改善可持续生活，减少洪水风险，降低社会经济和保险成本。最后，计划开展工业联络和传播活动，包括一次项目会议，以确保采用新技术，并使国际研究人员和联合王国组织受益。