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Business, Economics, Planning and Policy for Energy Storage in Low-Carbon Futures

低碳未来储能的商业、经济、规划和政策

基本信息

批准号：
EP/L014386/1
负责人：
Richard Green
金额：
$ 129.65万
依托单位：
Imperial College London
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2014
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2014 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=EP%2FL014386%2F1
关键词：
Business Economics Planning Policy Energy

项目摘要

Decarbonising the energy system in many countries (including both China and the UK) is likely to involve the large-scale deployment of renewable electricity generators with intermittent output and the electrification of energy services such as heat and transport that have very low load factors. These changes in electricity supply and demand will lead to a great need for energy storage. Our work for the Carbon Trust has estimated that the effective deployment of energy storage in the UK could reduce the cost of a low-carbon electricity system by £15 billion in 2030. The deployment and operation of storage is a complex task, since it can provide many different services, including energy arbitrage (buying off-peak and selling at higher peak prices), energy reserves, resolving transmission and distribution constraints and improving system reliability. The weight placed on each of these could affect the pattern of investment, and sophisticated planning tools are required to ensure that optimal decisions can be taken. We will improve these tools so that we can accurately represent a variety of storage systems. Much of the existing work on storage assumes that it might be used simply to postpone the "like for like" replacement of network assets that would otherwise be overloaded, but we will consider more radical options, using storage to actively manage the distribution network as part of the broader smart grid.We can use our models to calculate the economic value of energy storage when it provides a range of services to network companies and system users. We will measure the option value of having a storage system that can be deployed in much less time than it takes to get consent to build a transmission line, adding flexibility in how we respond to uncertainty over the future evolution of the energy system. It is important that such decisions are made on the basis of appropriate models, capable of quantifying the wide range of services that storage can provide, taking account of the way that electricity generation and demand varies over the course of the day and the year, and measuring the impact of transmission and distribution network effects. It is important to recognise that many countries (including the UK) have liberalised their electricity industries, and storage will only be pursued if companies believe that a viable business case exists. Work has started (via the Low Carbon Networks Fund) to test particular business models for demonstration projects, but this needs to be generalised. We will provide a quantified assessment of whether there is a business case for energy storage at present, and of what needs to be done to create one. This will involve a detailed study of the contracts that would be written around electricity storage, drawing lessons from existing arrangements for other kinds of storage, such as for gas or agricultural commodities. We will study how the rules of the electricity market could affect the choices of storage and generation technology.We will ask what policies are needed to ensure that storage can be economically viable when sensibly deployed and operated. We will identify technology policies that can help move energy storage from prototypes to large scale deployment. International transmission may complement energy storage within a country, and we will assess the potentially conflicting incentives if neighbouring countries adopt different strategies for dealing with intermittency. Too many debates around energy policy today are based on assertions without sufficient evidence. The models that we will develop, and the analysis that we will perform, will provide numerical estimates of the effectiveness of a range of policies, allowing regulators and other policy-makers to choose options that will lead to decarbonisation in the most effective way.

许多国家（包括中国和英国）的能源系统脱碳可能涉及大规模部署间歇性输出的可再生发电机，以及负载系数极低的供热和交通等能源服务的电气化。电力供需的这些变化将导致对储能的巨大需求。我们为碳信托基金所做的工作估计，到2030年，在英国有效部署储能可以使低碳电力系统的成本降低150亿英镑。储能的部署和运营是一项复杂的任务，因为它可以提供许多不同的服务，包括能源套利（错峰购买和以更高的高峰价格出售）、能源储备、解决输配电约束以及提高系统可靠性。每一项的权重都可能影响投资模式，需要复杂的规划工具来确保做出最佳决策。我们将改进这些工具，以便我们能够准确地表示各种存储系统。现有的大部分存储工作都假设它可能只是用来推迟网络资产的“同类”更换，否则就会过载，但我们将考虑更激进的选择，使用存储来主动管理配电网络，作为更广泛的智能电网的一部分。当能源存储为网络公司和系统用户提供一系列服务时，我们可以使用我们的模型来计算能源存储的经济价值。我们将衡量拥有一个存储系统的选择价值，该系统的部署时间比获得建设输电线路许可的时间短得多，从而增加了我们应对能源系统未来演变的不确定性的灵活性。重要的是，此类决策必须基于适当的模型，能够量化存储可以提供的广泛服务，考虑发电和需求在一天和一年中的变化方式，并衡量输电和配电网络效应的影响。重要的是要认识到，许多国家（包括英国）已经开放了电力行业，只有当公司认为存在可行的商业案例时才会寻求存储。已经开始（通过低碳网络基金）测试示范项目特定商业模式的工作，但这需要推广。我们将对目前是否存在储能商业案例以及需要采取哪些措施来提供量化评估。这将涉及对围绕电力存储编写的合同进行详细研究，并从其他类型存储（例如天然气或农产品）的现有安排中吸取经验教训。我们将研究电力市场的规则如何影响存储和发电技术的选择。我们将询问需要哪些政策来确保存储在合理部署和运营时在经济上可行。我们将确定有助于将能源存储从原型转向大规模部署的技术政策。国际输电可以补充一个国家内的能源储存，如果邻国采取不同的策略来处理间歇性问题，我们将评估潜在的冲突激励措施。当今有关能源政策的太多争论都是基于没有足够证据的断言。我们将开发的模型以及将进行的分析将对一系列政策的有效性进行数值估计，使监管机构和其他政策制定者能够选择以最有效的方式实现脱碳的方案。