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Maximising the Carbon Impact of Wind Power

最大限度地提高风电的碳影响

基本信息

批准号：
EP/N005996/1
负责人：
Richard Green
金额：
$ 30.04万
依托单位：
Imperial College London
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2015
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2015 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=EP%2FN005996%2F1
关键词：
Maximising Carbon Impact Wind Power

项目摘要

The UK has invested heavily in wind power in recent years, and is widely expected to build much more capacity in future. One of the driving reasons is to reduce carbon emissions, but there has been no in-depth study of how effective wind power has been, or will be, at achieving this. The simple question of 'how much carbon dioxide does a wind farm save?' has a surprisingly complex answer as it depends not just on how much power the farm produces, but on how the rest of the electricity system responds to its production.Past work by academics and government bodies has concentrated on calculating the average emissions (in grams of carbon dioxide per unit of electricity) from the entire UK power sector in various future scenarios. This project will be the first to understand the marginal emissions from wind power: the change in national emissions from adding one more or one less wind farm to the power system, the driving factors behind this, and how those factors can be used to maximise the savings. The more carbon dioxide that each turbine saves, the fewer turbines will have to be built, and the lower the cost to consumers and the UK economy. This detailed study is necessary because not all power stations respond equally to the output from wind farms. We must identify which specific power stations reduce their output when wind generation increases: high-carbon coal or lower-carbon gas? Secondly, more power stations will have to run part-loaded to cope with the weather-driven variability in wind output. We must understand how large this effect is, how great an impact it has on station efficiency and thus on national emissions. Third, large-scale investment in wind power will change the mix of other power stations that the rest of the industry chooses to build, and those stations will have different emissions at times when the wind is not blowing. Finally, to provide a holistic view of emissions we must consider the carbon emitted when power stations are built or fossil fuels are extracted from the ground using Life Cycle Assessment methodology. We will investigate these issues using a range of techniques intelligently integrated across several academic disciplines to give a complete whole-systems picture of the emissions displaced by wind, and: 1) Address fundamental problems in the emerging field of using reanalysis weather data to simulate historic wind farm outputs, allowing the output from the UK's future mix of wind farms to be quantified.2) Produce the most detailed estimation of British power sector emissions, combining the output from every power station with their likely efficiency, derived from hourly emissions data from similar stations in the US (as these are not reported in Britain).3) Develop statistical regression techniques to discover how these emissions vary with the level of wind output, with fuel and carbon prices, and the accuracy of the wind forecast.4) Employ both engineering and economic models of the future electricity system to investigate how investment and operating decisions change with more wind power, and what this will mean for emissions. 5) Develop a reduced-order model of the global electricity system to replicate this analysis for other countries to ask whether the UK is well- or badly-placed to reduce emissions with wind power.Our aim is to understand the factors that affect the emissions savings from investing in wind power, so that these savings can be maximised. Energy storage, international interconnections, accurate output forecasts and a high carbon price will all help to increase the emissions savings from wind power, and we will quantify the effects of each.

近年来，英国在风力发电方面进行了大量投资，人们普遍预计，英国未来将建设更多的产能。驱动原因之一是减少碳排放，但目前还没有深入研究风力发电在实现这一目标方面已经或将发挥多大作用。一个简单的问题是“一个风力发电场能减少多少二氧化碳？”答案复杂得令人惊讶，因为它不仅取决于农场生产的电力，还取决于电力系统的其他部分对其生产的反应。学者和政府机构过去的工作集中在计算未来各种情况下整个英国电力部门的平均排放量(以每单位电力的二氧化碳含量为单位)。该项目将是第一个了解风力发电边际排放的项目：在电力系统中增加或减少一个风力发电场对国家排放量的变化，背后的驱动因素，以及如何利用这些因素来最大限度地节省能源。每台涡轮机节省的二氧化碳越多，需要建造的涡轮机就越少，消费者和英国经济的成本就越低。这项详细的研究是必要的，因为并不是所有的发电站都对风电场的输出做出同样的反应。我们必须确定，当风力发电增加时，哪些发电站会减少发电量：高碳煤炭还是低碳天然气？其次，更多的发电站将不得不部分负荷运行，以应对风能输出的天气驱动变化。我们必须了解这种影响有多大，它对空间站效率的影响有多大，从而对国家排放有多大影响。第三，对风力发电的大规模投资将改变其他行业选择建设的发电站的组合，这些发电站在不刮风的时候会产生不同的排放。最后，为了提供排放的整体观点，我们必须考虑在使用生命周期评估方法建造发电站或从地面提取化石燃料时排放的碳。我们将使用一系列跨几个学术学科的智能集成技术来研究这些问题，以给出由风能取代的排放的完整全系统图景，并：1)解决新兴领域的基本问题，即使用再分析天气数据来模拟历史风电场产出，从而使英国未来风电场组合的产出得以量化。2)对英国电力部门的排放做出最详细的估计，将每个发电站的产出与其可能的效率结合起来。3)开发统计回归技术，以发现这些排放量如何随风力发电量水平、燃料和碳价格以及风力预测的准确性而变化。4)利用未来电力系统的工程和经济模型来调查投资和运营决策如何随着更多的风力发电而变化，以及这对排放意味着什么。5)开发一个全球电力系统的降阶模型，以复制这一分析，供其他国家询问英国在利用风力发电减少排放方面处于有利还是不利的地位。我们的目标是了解影响投资风力发电节省排放的因素，以便最大限度地实现这些节省。能源储存、国际互联、准确的产量预测和较高的碳价格都将有助于增加风力发电的减排，我们将量化每一项的影响。