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Probabilistic Transient Propagation (PTP)

概率瞬态传播 (PTP)

基本信息

批准号：
EP/N027507/1
负责人：
Richard Collins
金额：
$ 12.52万
依托单位：
University of Sheffield
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2016
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2016 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=EP%2FN027507%2F1
关键词：
Probabilistic Transient Propagation PTP

项目摘要

The supply of sufficient quantities of safe, clean water is a corner stone of modern civilised society. Despite this water is something that most people take for granted, being unaware of the huge scale of the water distribution infrastructure and the engineering challenges faced in ensuring day-to-day operation and the future of our supply. Water Distribution Systems (WDS) are in a state of constant flux. The pressure of the water supplied and the velocity it travels at are continually changing, and these changes can occur extremely rapidly. These phenomena are known as hydraulic transients and are variations of pressure that spread out around the network in waves of alternating highs and lows. These changes can cause damage to the pipes and features of the network. The vision of this project is to change how hydraulic transients in WDS are modelled by taking into account, from the start, the inherent uncertainties we have in these systems. This probabilistic approach will provide water utilities and their engineers on the ground with the required knowledge to assess the risks that transients may pose to assets, allowing them to make decisions to minimise damage to their systems from extreme or cyclic transients, to be able to target investment in maintenance, repair or replacement and therefore ensure the long-term sustainable operation of these indispensable yet ageing networks. Traditionally hydraulic transients have only been given real consideration in simple systems, as they were thought to occur for very short periods and to die away very quickly. This has been compounded by the lack of tools available to model, and the technology to measure, transients in real systems. Recent research has highlighted that transients occur far more often and are far more widespread than previously realised. Being able to make predictions of the size and shape of hydraulic transients would be an exceptionally useful tool for network operators to help them manage the risks they pose. Our current modelling tools give good results in well controlled lab environments but fail when applied to real, complex systems. The aim of this research project is to predict the travel of these transient waves in WDS and to propagate the uncertainties based on system parameters and boundary conditions. The uncertainty being considered in this project is primarily due to the system properties, for instance the roughness of pipes (a critical factor affecting how much energy is needed to transmit water) or the speed that the transient waves travel (a factor that is influenced by the type of material and the level of deterioration of the pipes). As the model will take into account our uncertainty of the system it will not give us a single value for the prediction of a transient's properties at a given time and location; rather it will give us a range of possible results and the probability that each will occur. The project will first develop a robust but computationally expensive sampling approach, then explore new techniques to improve the efficiency of the modelling process to allow it to be applied to full scale systems and to ensure the wide uptake of the techniques by industry.Hydraulic transients capture a huge amount of system information as they are modified by every feature of the system through which they pass. This information, if suitably decoded, can give access to vital knowledge of the condition and operation of the networks. The research undertaken in this first grant proposal will provide the foundation for future work to demonstrate the potential of combining simulation results with measured data; to reduce the uncertainty in actual system parameters and give WDS network operators the first viable widely implementable condition assessment tool.

供应充足的安全、清洁的水是现代文明社会的基石。尽管水是大多数人认为理所当然的东西，但他们没有意识到供水基础设施的庞大规模以及在确保日常运营和未来供应方面面临的工程挑战。配水系统 (WDS) 处于不断变化的状态。供水的压力和流速不断变化，并且这些变化可能发生得非常快。这些现象被称为水力瞬变，是在网络周围以交替的高低波形式传播的压力变化。这些变化可能会对管道和网络功能造成损坏。该项目的愿景是改变 WDS 中水力瞬变的建模方式，从一开始就考虑到这些系统中固有的不确定性。这种概率方法将为水务公司及其现场工程师提供所需的知识，以评估瞬变可能对资产造成的风险，使他们能够做出决策，最大限度地减少极端或周期性瞬变对其系统的损害，从而能够有针对性地进行维护、修理或更换投资，从而确保这些不可或缺但老化的网络的长期可持续运行。传统上，水力瞬变仅在简单系统中得到真正考虑，因为它们被认为发生的时间非常短，并且很快就会消失。由于缺乏可用于对实际系统中的瞬态进行建模的工具以及测量瞬态的技术，这一问题变得更加复杂。最近的研究强调，瞬态发生的频率和范围比以前意识到的要广泛得多。对于网络运营商来说，能够预测水力瞬变的大小和形状将是一个非常有用的工具，可以帮助他们管理所带来的风险。我们当前的建模工具在控制良好的实验室环境中给出了良好的结果，但在应用于真实的复杂系统时却失败了。该研究项目的目的是预测这些瞬态波在 WDS 中的传播，并根据系统参数和边界条件传播不确定性。该项目中考虑的不确定性主要归因于系统特性，例如管道的粗糙度（影响传输水所需能量的关键因素）或瞬态波传播的速度（受材料类型和管道劣化程度影响的因素）。由于该模型将考虑系统的不确定性，因此它不会为我们提供单个值来预测给定时间和位置的瞬态特性；相反，它会给我们一系列可能的结果以及每种结果发生的概率。该项目将首先开发一种稳健但计算成本高昂的采样方法，然后探索新技术以提高建模过程的效率，使其能够应用于全尺寸系统，并确保行业广泛采用该技术。水力瞬变捕获大量系统信息，因为它们会被它们所经过的系统的每个特征所修改。如果对这些信息进行适当解码，就可以获取有关网络状况和运行的重要知识。第一项拨款提案中进行的研究将为未来的工作奠定基础，以展示将模拟结果与测量数据相结合的潜力；减少实际系统参数的不确定性，并为 WDS 网络运营商提供第一个可行的、可广泛实施的条件评估工具。