Disaster management and resilience in electric power systems

电力基础设施是维持人类和经济福祉的关键，因为它为工业、商业和金融部门、关键服务（保健、交通管制、供水）、通信网络以及现代社会中的几乎所有活动提供能源。因此，长期停电对经济活动和社会稳定与安全的影响已经显现出来。除了目前安全标准所设想的“平均”停电之外，还需要一个电力部门灾害管理和恢复能力框架。该框架应考虑在发生地震和海啸等可能导致大停电的自然灾害时的网络管理，并评估管理相关灾害的适当措施。制定和实施这样一个框架对于增加智利和其他国家的机会至关重要，特别是位于太平洋火环周围的发展中国家和低收入国家，这些国家特别容易受到地震和海啸的危险。在此背景下，该项目将对电网的自然灾害进行全面的风险分析，同时确定缓解和适应措施，使我们能够管理正在发生的灾害。这种灾害管理和复原力的整体观点将得到数学模型发展的支持，该模型首先评估与高影响低概率事件（如地震和海啸）有关的电力系统风险。然后，这些模型将用于确定预防和纠正措施的最佳组合，以支持减轻影响，并比较不同的适应战略。特别是，除了传统的基础设施加固，我们将评估灾害管理的操作措施，例如，通过分布式能源系统，例如，基于社区和微电网，如何提供系统弹性。在这最后一点的基础上，恢复力实际上也可以通过公民和社区以及他们如何准备和应对停电来建立。例如，这种准备工作可由电力公司牵头，通过在官方答复者、地方官员、社区团体、公民个人和电力公司之间分担应对责任，以个人和社区为目标。其目的是让家庭制定应对战略，并辅之以为社区（和社区）准备的复原力措施。这种共同承担的责任正在成为英国的一种应对文化（最近人们认识到，自发的志愿者是一种未经训练的、未知的支持来源，在事件发生时聚集在一起）。在发展中国家，鉴于灾难的规模，官方答复者的能力可能不足，因此更迫切地依赖社区准备和自愿帮助者的自发出现，以减轻事件的影响并加快恢复正常。因此，除了更多的技术特性之外，这里开发的框架将明确地包括社区弹性，作为减少中断影响和管理灾难的一种方式。通过基于过去经验和模拟的数据分析智利的几个案例研究，我们将提出一个适用于其他发展中国家和低收入国家的灾害管理、网络和社区复原力的总体框架。我们将利用研究成果制定灾后网络标准，以及社区停电恢复能力标准。这些标准将包括社会经济和工程指标，这些指标可以支持监测网络的恢复能力和抵御自然、灾难性事件的准备情况，并在此类事件发生后量化其影响，提高事后分析的质量。

Electricity infrastructure is key to sustain human and economic well-being since it supplies energy to industrial, commercial and financial sectors, critical services (health, traffic control, water supply), communication networks, and hence almost all activities in modern societies. Consequently, the effects of long electricity blackouts have demonstrated impacts on economic activities and social stability and security. A framework for disaster management and resilience of the power sector is needed, beyond the occurrence of "average" outages contemplated in current security standards. This framework should consider network management under the occurrence of natural hazards such as earthquakes and tsunamis that may cause major blackouts, and assess proper measures to manage the associated disasters. Developing and implementing such a framework will be crucial to increase the opportunities for Chile and other countries, especially developing and low-income ones located around the Pacific Ring of Fire which are particularly exposed to the risk of earthquakes and tsunamis.In this context, this project will undertake holistic risk analyses associated with natural hazards on electricity networks along with identification of mitigation and adaptation measures that can allow us to manage the arising disasters. This holistic perspective of disaster management and resilience will be supported by development of mathematical models to firstly assess risks related to high impact low probability events, such as earthquakes and tsunamis, on the electric power systems. These models will then serve to identify an optimal portfolio of preventive and corrective measures that can support mitigation of impacts and compare different adaptation strategies. In particular, besides classical infrastructure reinforcement, we will assess how operational measures for disaster management, for instance though distributed energy systems, e.g., based on communities and microgrids, can provide system resilience.Building on this last point, resilience can in fact also be built through citizens and communities and by how they prepare for, and respond to, power outages. Such preparedness could for instance be led by the electricity companies and targeted at the individual and community levels by sharing accountability for response across the official respondents, local officials, community groups, individual citizens, and the electricity companies. The aim is for households to have response strategies that are complemented by resilience measures prepared for (and by) the community. Such shared responsibility is becoming the response culture in the UK (with the very recent recognition of spontaneous volunteers as a source of untrained, unknown support which converges at the time of an incident). In developing countries, where the capacity of official respondents may be insufficient given the scale of the disaster, the reliance on community preparedness and spontaneous emergence of willing helpers is more acute to lessen the effects of an incident and quicken the return to normality. Thus, in addition to more technical features, the framework developed here will explicitly include community resilience as a way to lessen the impact of outages and manage disasters.By analysing several case studies in Chile based on both data from past experiences and simulations, we will propose a general framework for disaster management and network and community resilience which can be applicable to other developing and low-income countries. We will use the research findings to develop networks standards following disasters along with a standard on community resilience to power outages. These standards will include socio-economic and engineering indicators that can support monitoring of network resilience and readiness to withstand natural, catastrophic events as well as quantifying impacts of such events after they occur, enhancing quality of post-morterm analysis.