Disaster management and resilience in electric power systems

电力基础设施是维持人类和经济福祉的关键，因为它为工业、商业和金融部门、关键服务(卫生、交通管制、供水)、通信网络以及现代社会的几乎所有活动提供能源。因此，长期停电的影响已显示出对经济活动和社会稳定与安全的影响。除了现行安全标准所设想的“平均”停电情况外，还需要一个灾害管理和电力部门复原力框架。这一框架应考虑在发生地震和海啸等可能导致重大停电的自然灾害的情况下进行网络管理，并评估管理相关灾害的适当措施。制定和执行这样一个框架对于增加智利和其他国家的机会至关重要，特别是对太平洋火环地区发展中国家和低收入国家来说，这些国家特别容易遭受地震和海啸的风险。在这方面，该项目将进行与电网自然灾害有关的全面风险分析，同时确定能够使我们能够管理正在发生的灾害的减灾和适应措施。这一灾害管理和复原力的整体观点将得到建立数学模型的支持，以便首先评估与地震和海啸等对电力系统产生重大影响的小概率事件有关的风险。然后，这些模型将有助于确定能够支持减轻影响的预防和纠正措施的最佳组合，并比较不同的适应战略。特别是，除了加强传统的基础设施外，我们还将评估灾害管理的操作措施，例如通过分布式能源系统(例如基于社区和微电网)如何提供系统复原力。在这最后一点的基础上，实际上还可以通过公民和社区以及他们如何准备和应对停电来建立复原力。例如，这种准备可以由电力公司牵头，通过在官方答复者、地方官员、社区团体、公民个人和电力公司之间分担应对责任，以个人和社区一级为目标。这样做的目的是让家庭有应对战略，并辅之以为社区(和由社区)准备的复原力措施。这种共同的责任正在成为英国的应对文化(最近人们认识到，自发的志愿者是未经培训的、未知的支持的来源，这些支持在事件发生时汇聚在一起)。在发展中国家，考虑到灾害的规模，官方答复者的能力可能不足，因此更加依赖社区备灾和自发出现的自愿帮助者，以减轻事件的影响并加快恢复正常。因此，除了更多的技术特征外，这里开发的框架将明确包括社区复原力，以此作为减少停电影响和管理灾害的一种方式。通过分析智利基于过去经验和模拟数据的几个案例研究，我们将提出一个可适用于其他发展中国家和低收入国家的灾害管理以及网络和社区复原力的一般框架。我们将利用研究成果制定灾难后的网络标准，以及社区对停电的恢复力标准。这些标准将包括社会经济和工程指标，以支持监测网络复原力和抵御自然灾害的准备情况，以及量化此类事件发生后的影响，提高事后分析的质量。

Electricity infrastructure is key to sustain human and economic well-being since it supplies energy to industrial, commercial and financial sectors, critical services (health, traffic control, water supply), communication networks, and hence almost all activities in modern societies. Consequently, the effects of long electricity blackouts have demonstrated impacts on economic activities and social stability and security. A framework for disaster management and resilience of the power sector is needed, beyond the occurrence of "average" outages contemplated in current security standards. This framework should consider network management under the occurrence of natural hazards such as earthquakes and tsunamis that may cause major blackouts, and assess proper measures to manage the associated disasters. Developing and implementing such a framework will be crucial to increase the opportunities for Chile and other countries, especially developing and low-income ones located around the Pacific Ring of Fire which are particularly exposed to the risk of earthquakes and tsunamis.In this context, this project will undertake holistic risk analyses associated with natural hazards on electricity networks along with identification of mitigation and adaptation measures that can allow us to manage the arising disasters. This holistic perspective of disaster management and resilience will be supported by development of mathematical models to firstly assess risks related to high impact low probability events, such as earthquakes and tsunamis, on the electric power systems. These models will then serve to identify an optimal portfolio of preventive and corrective measures that can support mitigation of impacts and compare different adaptation strategies. In particular, besides classical infrastructure reinforcement, we will assess how operational measures for disaster management, for instance though distributed energy systems, e.g., based on communities and microgrids, can provide system resilience.Building on this last point, resilience can in fact also be built through citizens and communities and by how they prepare for, and respond to, power outages. Such preparedness could for instance be led by the electricity companies and targeted at the individual and community levels by sharing accountability for response across the official respondents, local officials, community groups, individual citizens, and the electricity companies. The aim is for households to have response strategies that are complemented by resilience measures prepared for (and by) the community. Such shared responsibility is becoming the response culture in the UK (with the very recent recognition of spontaneous volunteers as a source of untrained, unknown support which converges at the time of an incident). In developing countries, where the capacity of official respondents may be insufficient given the scale of the disaster, the reliance on community preparedness and spontaneous emergence of willing helpers is more acute to lessen the effects of an incident and quicken the return to normality. Thus, in addition to more technical features, the framework developed here will explicitly include community resilience as a way to lessen the impact of outages and manage disasters.By analysing several case studies in Chile based on both data from past experiences and simulations, we will propose a general framework for disaster management and network and community resilience which can be applicable to other developing and low-income countries. We will use the research findings to develop networks standards following disasters along with a standard on community resilience to power outages. These standards will include socio-economic and engineering indicators that can support monitoring of network resilience and readiness to withstand natural, catastrophic events as well as quantifying impacts of such events after they occur, enhancing quality of post-morterm analysis.