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Development of a high-end computational technology to predict meteotsunami impact

开发预测气象海啸影响的高端计算技术

基本信息

批准号：
EP/R015899/1
负责人：
Emiliano Renzi
金额：
$ 12.78万
依托单位：
Loughborough University
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2018
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2018 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=EP%2FR015899%2F1
关键词：
Development end computational technology predict

项目摘要

This project will develop a novel computational technology to predict meteotsunami impact in British coastal waters. It aligns with the EPSRC Theme "Living with Environmental Change", whose ambition is to develop "innovative solutions and technologies to protect against high impact extreme events such as flooding".Meteotsunamis (meteorological tsunamis) are sudden and massive waves which are triggered by fast-moving storms far at sea. At first, a pressure burst whips up waves in the deep ocean. Then, resonant mechanisms between the weather front and the ocean amplify the wave height. As the wave move towards the coast, nearshore shelf resonances further feed it with energy. As a result, when a meteotsunami hits the coast, it can be as tall as 6 metres and can produce significant damage to harbours, boats and beaches, occasionally claiming human lives. It is obvious that protecting the coastline from meteotsunami impact is of economic and social interest.In the UK, weather-induced monster waves are rare, but they do occur. For example, in 1892 a meteotsunami killed up to 60 people in Chesil Beach (Dorset). Recent observations have revealed that meteotsunamis are more common than originally thought. For example, in July 2015 a strong convective system generated a 1.25 m meteotsunami at Stonehaven harbour, which caused damage to boats and a serious injury to a crewman. In the future, meteotsunami frequency in the UK is likely to grow, because of increasing intensity of mid-latitude North Atlantic cyclones and rising sea levels, driven by global climate change.Despite meteotsunamis posing a risk in the UK, their impact has never been quantified. As a matter of fact, it is practically impossible to forecast a meteotsunami in the UK with the current technology. This uses tsunami-like simulations in which the earthquake source is replaced with an atmospheric pressure source. This methodology has consistently failed in reproducing recorded meteotsunamis. The reason is that an earthquake only feeds energy into the tsunami for a short time, while the atmospheric source continuously modifies the meteotsunami waves. This results in meteotsunamis having peculiar propagation mechanisms that cannot be captured by existing tsunami-like models.The core objective of this proposal is exactly to develop a novel and reliable technology to make meteotsunami prediction possible in the UK. The fact that no meteotsunami computational model has been ever validated in the UK scenario confirms the ambitious and timely nature of this project. The recent development by the applicant of a novel mathematical theory capable to capture the complex energy exchange between the atmosphere, the waves and the coast is a game-changing innovation that has the potential to enable us to achieve reliable meteotsunami predictions.The goal of our project is to use the new technology to identify vulnerable regions in the UK, leading to safer coastal communities, harbours and beaches. We will also synthesise the computational results in practical engineering formulae, which will enable us to predict key meteotsunami parameters from atmospheric pressure data. Our new formulae will help coastal engineers to design more resilient coastal structures and infrastructures.We are aware that warning systems are truly effective only if they involve the communities at risk. Therefore, we have designed a range of impact activities (e.g. online platform, social media feeds, information boards) to actively involve the public from the beginning. Our work has the potential to have an impact in shaping policies and public behaviour that will lead to safer coastal communities and beaches in the UK.

该项目将开发一种新的计算技术来预测英国沿海水域的流星海啸影响。它与EPSRC的“与环境变化共存”的主题相一致，该主题的雄心是开发“创新的解决方案和技术，以防止洪水等高影响的极端事件”。气象海啸是由远处快速移动的风暴引发的突然而巨大的海浪。起初，一次压力爆发会在深海激起巨浪。然后，天气锋面和海洋之间的共振机制放大了波高。随着海浪向海岸移动，近岸陆架共振进一步为其提供能量。因此，当一场流星海啸袭击海岸时，它可能高达6米，并可能对港口、船只和海滩造成重大破坏，偶尔还会夺走生命。显然，保护海岸线不受流星海啸的影响具有经济和社会利益。在英国，天气引发的巨浪很少，但它们确实会发生。例如，1892年，一场流星海啸在切西尔海滩(多塞特郡)夺去了多达60人的生命。最近的观察显示，流星比最初认为的更常见。例如，2015年7月，一个强对流系统在斯通海文港产生了1.25米的流星海啸，造成船只损坏，一名船员受重伤。未来，由于中纬度北大西洋气旋强度的增加和全球气候变化的推动，海平面上升，英国的流星雨频率可能会增加。尽管流星雨在英国构成了风险，但其影响从未被量化。事实上，用目前的技术预测英国的流星海啸几乎是不可能的。这使用了类似海啸的模拟，其中用大气压力源取代了地震源。这种方法在复制记录的流星雨方面一直失败。原因是地震只在短时间内向海啸提供能量，而大气源不断修改流星海啸波。这导致流星雨具有现有类似海啸的模型无法捕捉到的特殊传播机制。这项提议的核心目标正是开发一种新的和可靠的技术，使英国的流星雨预报成为可能。没有任何流星海啸计算模型在英国的情景中得到验证，这一事实证实了该项目雄心勃勃和及时的性质。申请者最近开发了一种新的数学理论，能够捕捉大气、海浪和海岸之间复杂的能量交换，这是一项改变游戏规则的创新，有可能使我们能够实现可靠的流星海啸预测。我们项目的目标是使用新技术来识别英国的脆弱地区，导致更安全的沿海社区、港口和海滩。我们还将把计算结果综合到实际的工程公式中，这将使我们能够从大气压力数据中预测关键的流星海啸参数。我们的新公式将帮助沿海工程师设计更具弹性的沿海结构和基础设施。我们意识到，只有当预警系统涉及到处于危险中的社区时，它们才真正有效。因此，我们设计了一系列影响活动(如在线平台、社交媒体订阅、信息板)，从一开始就积极让公众参与。我们的工作有可能对制定政策和公共行为产生影响，这些政策和公共行为将导致英国沿海社区和海滩更加安全。