GCRF_NF359: Modelling the exposure risk tradeoff between public transit and private paratransit for transport decision making in the era of Covid19

GCRF_NF359：为 Covid19 时代的交通决策建立公共交通和私人辅助交通之间的暴露风险权衡模型

• 批准号: EP/V043226/1
• 负责人: Zia Wadud
• 金额: $ 24.65万
• 依托单位: University of Leeds
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2020 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=EP%2FV043226%2F1
• 关键词: GCRF_NF359; Modelling; exposure; risk; tradeoff

A safe and functioning transport system is vital to maintain economic activities in countries, developing or not. In most developing countries, the transport system is characterised by a crowded bus transit and micro-transit systems, supplemented by paratransits such as motorcycle taxis and autorickshaws. The paratransit sector is also a large source of employment (e.g. 3 Million motorcycle taxis in Nigeria, 300,000 in Kampala, Uganda, 104,000 in Dhaka, Bangladesh). The COVID19 pandemic has massively disrupted the transport sector and economic activities. In the project countries, motorcycle-based paratransits are banned from operating in order to maintain safe distances. In addition to disrupting travel and affecting the primarily poor users (prices in other modes have gone up), this has also resulted in massive unemployment and poverty among the drivers. However, there are also serious concerns about the safety of passengers in crowded buses or micro-transit vehicles, where maintaining appropriate distances are nearly impossible, and paratransits can be a viable alternative. The risks of virus exposure is also high in high occupancy vehicles due to the closed nature of the vehicles compared to the open nature of motorcycles and semi-open nature of autorickshaws. It may also be possible to mitigate risks in paratransits through barriers or shields. However, there are no studies investigating the relative risks of these modes, with or without the mitigation measures. The project aims to model the exposure risk in different types of transport modes in order to allow policymakers to make an evidence-based optimum decision. The physics-based computer modelling will be accompanied by user surveys to understand their travel pattern, preferences and acceptance of various mitigation measures (such as shields designed using the models). Given the prevalence of micro-and paratransits in many other DAC countries, the results will be useful for other similar DAC countries too.

安全和正常运作的运输系统对于维持发展中国家或非发展中国家的经济活动至关重要。在大多数发展中国家，交通系统的特点是拥挤的公共汽车交通和微型交通系统，辅之以摩托车出租车和自动三轮车等辅助交通。辅助客运部门也是一个巨大的就业来源（例如，尼日利亚有300万辆摩托车出租车，乌干达坎帕拉有30万辆，孟加拉国达卡有104，000辆）。COVID-19大流行严重扰乱了运输部门和经济活动。在项目国家，禁止以摩托车为基础的辅助运输公司运营，以保持安全距离。除了扰乱旅行和影响主要是穷人的用户（其他方式的价格上涨）外，这还导致司机大量失业和贫困。然而，人们也严重关切拥挤的公共汽车或微型交通工具上的乘客安全，因为在这些地方几乎不可能保持适当的距离，而辅助运输可以是一种可行的替代办法。由于与摩托车的开放性和摩托车的半开放性相比，车辆的封闭性，高载客车辆的病毒暴露风险也很高。还可以通过屏障或防护来减轻辅助运输中的风险。然而，没有研究调查这些模式的相对风险，有或没有缓解措施。该项目旨在建立不同类型运输方式的接触风险模型，以便决策者做出基于证据的最佳决策。在进行基于物理的计算机建模的同时，还将进行用户调查，以了解他们的出行模式、偏好和对各种缓解措施（例如使用模型设计的防护罩）的接受程度。鉴于许多其他发援会国家普遍存在小额和准小额贷款，研究结果也将对其他类似的发援会国家有用。

项目成果

The effects of COVID19 on public and paratransit drivers in developing countries: A case study of Bangladesh and Nigeria

• DOI: 10.1016/j.jth.2023.101749
• 发表时间: 2023-12-23
• 期刊: JOURNAL OF TRANSPORT & HEALTH
• 影响因子: 3.6
• 作者: Batool，Zahara;Uzondu，Chinebuli;Wadud，Zia
• 通讯作者: Wadud，Zia

Exposure risk analysis of COVID-19 for a ride-sharing motorbike taxi.

• DOI: 10.1063/5.0069454
• 发表时间: 2021-11
• 期刊: Physics of fluids (Woodbury, N.Y. : 1994)
• 作者: Hetherington R;Toufique Hasan ABM;Khan A;Roy D;Salehin M;Wadud Z
• 通讯作者: Wadud Z

Willingness to pay for COVID-19 mitigation measures in public transport and paratransit in low-income countries.

• DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2022.103561
• 发表时间: 2023-01
• 期刊: Transportation research. Part A, Policy and practice
• 作者: Bwambale A;Uzondu C;Islam M;Rahman F;Batool Z;Isolo Mukwaya P;Wadud Z
• 通讯作者: Wadud Z