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Breaking into Government: Coalition Formation and Destruction in the New Europe in Comparative Perspective

闯入政府：比较视角下新欧洲联盟的形成与破坏

基本信息

批准号：
ES/J003425/1
负责人：
Lee Savage
金额：
$ 10.33万
依托单位：
University of Sussex
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Fellowship
财政年份：
2011
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2011 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FJ003425%2F1
关键词：
Breaking into Government Coalition Formation

项目摘要

Due to the preponderance of coalition governments across Eastern Europe, understanding of why certain coalitions form and others do not is vital as it has consequences for other areas of the political process such as voting behaviour, party system interaction, parliamentary behaviour and party discipline and government durability. Based primarily on research completed in my PhD thesis, I will conduct a cross-national quantitative analysis of government formation and dissolution events over the entire democratic period of Eastern Europe since the fall of Communism in 1990. The proposed research programme offers an almost unique opportunity to analyse government formation and dissolution in the context of democratizing parliamentary states to answer three primary questions:1) What can we learn from established models? Does party size trump all other considerations or is ideology an influential factor? I found that contrary to expectations based on analyses of coalition formation in other parliamentary democracies (Franklin and Mackie, 1984) and some of the classic theories of government formation as expressed by authors such as Dodd (1976) and De Swaan (1973), the ideological diversity of parliament did not have a significant influence on the majority status of governments in East Central Europe. The implications of this could be enormous. Can political parties in Eastern Europe survive long-term if they behave in such an office-seeking manner without establishing an ideological basis for support? I also analysed government formation using Laver and Shepsle's 'Portfolio Allocation'(PA) model which suggests that party positions on key policy dimensions, irrespective of overall ideological profile, together with relative party size determines the composition of the government. This model has rarely been tested empirically due to the extensive data requirements so in that respect, this is an important contribution to the literature on established models. 2) Why do some governments dissolve before their tenure is complete? I used a survival analysis technique called Cox regression to analyse the factors that defined governments that terminated early and found that the number of parties in opposition and the ideological diversity of the government play key roles in determining the lifespan of a government.3) Do institutions matter in government formation? One of the most original elements of my research is an analysis of an overlooked aspect of government formation: the party system. The party system structures the manner in which political parties interact with each other and its influence over the party-composition of coalition governments could therefore be considerable. Through this analysis, I uncovered significant evidence that the relatively high levels of party system instability that are evident in the region has not prevented the development of stable competition for government from different ideological 'blocs' - though the identity of the parties that represent those blocs had changed somewhat over the years.The postdoctoral fellowship will allow me to pursue some of the issues that grew from my PhD and require further exploration. In particular, I have the opportunity to add further cases to my dataset on coalition governments which will strengthen the statistical analysis in the thesis. I would also seek to update my dataset on party policy positions in Eastern Europe which is, to my knowledge, the only source of quantitative data on this subject that covers the entire period since the transition to democracy in 1990. As such, I consider it a valuable resource both for my own work and that of other academics.

由于联合政府在整个东欧占优势，了解为什么某些联盟的形式和其他人没有是至关重要的，因为它会影响到政治进程的其他领域，如投票行为，政党系统的互动，议会行为和党的纪律和政府的持久性。主要基于我博士论文中完成的研究，我将对自1990年共产主义垮台以来整个东欧民主时期的政府组建和解散事件进行跨国定量分析。拟议的研究计划提供了一个几乎独特的机会，分析政府的形成和解散的民主化议会制国家的背景下，回答三个主要问题：1）我们可以从既定的模型中学到什么？政党规模是否压倒了所有其他考虑，还是意识形态是一个有影响力的因素？我发现，与基于对其他议会民主国家联盟形成的分析（富兰克林和麦基，1984）以及多德（1976）和德·斯旺（1973）等作者所表达的一些政府形成的经典理论的预期相反，议会的意识形态多样性对中东欧国家政府的多数地位没有重大影响。这可能会产生巨大的影响。如果东欧的政党在没有建立支持的意识形态基础的情况下以这种谋求职位的方式行事，它们能长期生存吗？我还分析了政府的形成使用拉弗和Shepsle的“投资组合分配”（PA）模型，这表明，党的立场上的关键政策层面，无论整体意识形态的形象，连同相对党的大小决定了政府的组成。由于广泛的数据要求，该模型很少进行经验测试，因此在这方面，这是对现有模型文献的重要贡献。2)为什么有些政府在任期结束前就解散了？我使用了一种称为考克斯回归的生存分析技术来分析界定政府提前结束的因素，发现反对党的数量和政府的意识形态多样性在决定政府寿命方面发挥着关键作用。3）制度在政府组建中重要吗？我的研究中最具原创性的元素之一是对政府组建中一个被忽视的方面的分析：政党制度。政党制度决定了各政党之间的互动方式，因此，它对联合政府的政党组成可能产生相当大的影响。通过这一分析，我发现了重要的证据，表明该地区明显存在的相对较高的政党制度不稳定性并没有阻止不同意识形态“集团”对政府的稳定竞争的发展-尽管这些年来代表这些集团的政党的身份发生了一些变化。博士后奖学金将使我能够继续研究我博士学位所产生的一些问题，需要进一步探索。特别是，我有机会在我的联合政府数据集上添加更多的案例，这将加强论文中的统计分析。我还将设法更新我关于东欧政党政策立场的数据集，据我所知，这是自1990年向民主过渡以来整个时期关于这一主题的唯一定量数据来源。因此，我认为这是一个宝贵的资源，无论是对我自己的工作和其他学者。