Power-Sharing and Voting: Conflict, Accountability and Electoral Behaviour at the 2015 Northern Ireland Assembly Election

当北方爱尔兰的公民在2015年北方爱尔兰议会选举中投票时，自1998年耶稣受难日/贝尔法斯特协议确立权力下放和权力分享以来，已经过去了近20年。因此，对2015年议会选举的严格分析将使我们能够认真考虑“和平进程”的影响以及与此相关的权力分享治理结构的实施。我们调查权力分享是否实际上导致了高质量的选举民主的北方爱尔兰的人民，而不是仅仅巩固和加强种族分裂。在我们的调查中，我们解决了一些具体的问题：1/权力分享机构是否保持或减少了民族（新教英国人对天主教爱尔兰人）在选举时竞选和投票的重要性？在我们的研究中，我们通过将我们提出的2015年研究与1998年和2003年ESRC资助的早期研究联系起来，比较了1998-2015年期间民族投票的强度。我们评估随着时间的推移，“跨集团”投票是否有所增加（新教徒给予民族主义政党较低的偏好投票，或天主教徒给予工会主义政党较低的偏好投票）。此外，我们评估是否民族意识形态的重要性（民族主义与统一主义信仰的基础上投票）已经变得越来越重要或不那么重要随着时间的推移。此外，我们还将民族意识形态与非冲突意识形态（如经济上的左右翼观点或道德上的自由保守观点）进行了比较。2.选举问责制是否可能？如果政府中只有一个政党，选民很容易确定谁对政府绩效负责。在联合政府中，选民很难清楚地看到，如果事情进展得不好，应该责怪哪个政党（或者如果事情进展得好，应该奖励哪个政党）。当所有政党都执政而没有一个政党是反对党时，这种困难就特别严重，北方爱尔兰就是这种情况。我们评估在这种情况下，选民是否真的有可能让决策者承担责任。3.投票有情感基础吗？根据问题1和2，我们评估了选民依赖民族投票或基于表现的投票的条件。我们调查情绪的作用，并评估愤怒是否与民族冲突的基础上投票，而恐惧与基于性能的投票。4/权力分享是否阻碍参与？缺乏明确的反对党是否会导致不愿参与政治？此外，权力分享使一个社区比另一个社区受益的感觉是否会导致与政治疏远，或导致非选举形式的政治抗议？5/北方爱尔兰公民对政治改革的态度如何（如发展一个强有力的反对党，使政府承担责任，或对诸如悬挂国旗和游行等敏感的文化事务进行管理）？公民是如何形成这种态度的？为什么对拟议中的改革的不同意会演变成暴力的街头抗议？探讨这些问题对于理解民主如何在北方爱尔兰的敏感环境中运作非常重要。这些答案对于我们更广泛地理解如何应对世界各地的暴力种族冲突也很重要。“北方爱尔兰模式”常常被奉为权力分享与和平建设的成功典范。我们的分析将对北方爱尔兰的选举民主的质量提供详细的批评，这对世界各地的和平建设者（包括联合国等组织）都很重要。我们还将最大限度地提高我们的工作对普通公民的相关性在北方爱尔兰，二级学校教师和学生，北方爱尔兰报纸，纪录片制作者，和北方爱尔兰议会。

When citizens in Northern Ireland cast their vote in the 2015 Northern Ireland Assembly election, almost two decades will have passed since the Good Friday/ Belfast Agreement of 1998 established devolution and power-sharing. Thus, a rigorous analysis of the 2015 Assembly election will allow us to carefully consider the impact of the 'peace process' and the associated implementation of power-sharing governing structures. We investigate whether power-sharing has actually led to good quality electoral democracy for the people of Northern Ireland or has instead merely cemented and strengthened ethnic divisions. In our investigation, we address a number of specific questions: 1/ Have the power-sharing institutions maintained or reduced the importance of ethno-national (Protestant British versus Catholic Irish) campaigning and voting at election time? In our study we compare the strength of ethno-national voting over the 1998-2015 period by linking our proposed 2015 study to earlier ESRC funded studies in 1998 and 2003. We assess whether there has been an increase over time in 'cross bloc' voting (Protestants giving lower preference votes to nationalist parties, or Catholics giving lower preference votes to unionist parties). Also, we assess whether the importance of ethno-national ideology (voting on the basis of nationalist versus unionist beliefs) has become more or less important over time. We, furthermore, compare ethno-national ideology to non-conflict ideologies (such as economic left-right views or moral liberal-conservative views). 2/ Is electoral accountability possible? If there is only one party in government, it is easy for voters to identify who to hold responsible for government performance. In coalition governments it is harder for voters to clearly see which party to blame if things are going badly (or reward if things are going well). This difficulty is particularly acute when all of the parties are in Government and none are in Opposition, as is the case in Northern Ireland. We assess whether it is actually possible for voters to hold decision-makers to account in such a context. 3/ Is there an emotional basis to voting? Following on from questions 1 and 2 we assess the conditions under which voters rely on either ethno-national voting or peformance-based voting. We investigate the role of emotions and assess whether anger is associated with voting on the basis of the ethno-national conflict while fear is associated with performance-based voting. 4/ Does power-sharing discourage participation? Does the absence of a clear Opposition lead to reluctance to engage in politics? Also, does the sense that powersharing benefits one community over the other lead to alienation from politics, or non-electoral forms of political protest?5/ What are Northern Ireland citizens' attitudes to political reform (such as developing a strong Opposition that would hold the Government to account, or the regulation of sensitive cultural matters such as flag flying and parades)? How do citizens form such attitudes? Why is it that disagreement with suggested reform can spiral into violent street protest?Answering these questions is important for understanding how democracy operates in the sensitive setting of Northern Ireland. The answers are also important for our broader understanding of how to respond to violent ethnic conflict around the world. The 'Northern Ireland Model' is often held up as an impressive example of successful power-sharing and peace building. Our analysis will provide a detailed critique of the quality of electoral democracy in the Northern Ireland example that will be important for peace builders around the world (including organisations such as the United Nations). We will also maximise the relevance of our work for ordinary citizens in Northern Ireland, second level school teachers and students, Northern Ireland newspapers, documentary makers, and the Northern Ireland Assembly.