UNDERSTANDING PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS OF AND RESPONSES TO HEAT WAVES: A BEHAVIOURAL DECISION RESEARCH APPROACH

我们建议在英国范围内研究公众对最近热浪的反应。我们将测试不同的方式要求人们记住最近的热浪对他们与热有关的风险感知，气候变化的关注，以及随着时间的推移实施热保护的意愿的影响。如果有影响，那么公众对热浪的准备可以通过唤起热浪的记忆来改善，从而帮助人们避免严重的与热浪有关的问题。我们的研究结果对英国国家卫生服务体系（NHS）和英国公共卫生署（PHE）等组织很重要，这些组织设计通信以改善公共热保护。这项工作是紧迫的，与政策相关，因为（1）热浪在英国很少见，但预计在气候变化下会变得更常见;（2）热浪会导致过多的死亡，疾病和不适;（3）热浪会导致更多的死亡，疾病和不适。（3）人们是否愿意实施防热措施尚不清楚，但一些研究表明，即使是处于危险中的成年人也不认为自己容易受到热量的影响;（4）目前仍不清楚如何最好地激励人们保护自己，NHS/PHE热浪计划等政策尚未正式评估;以及（5）如果能重新唤起人们对高温的记忆，那么推广公共场所的防热措施可能会更有效。我们的跨学科团队结合了行为决策研究和环境科学方面所需的专业知识，这一建议正是基于此。行为决策研究表明，人们认为他们的风险比实际低，除非他们记得使他们处于风险中的事件。环境科学表明，极端天气是令人难忘的，但英国居民可能会感到“怀旧”，因为经历过的高温已经成为过去。因此，唤起关于热的记忆的通信可能在最初起作用，但随着时间的推移变得无效，除非明确地唤起关于不愉快的热的记忆。我们是第一个测试是否明确的指示，以记住不愉快的热的经验，可以帮助避免减少人们的看法与热有关的风险，气候变化的关注，并愿意实施热防护随着时间的推移。我们的调查将招募1500名参与者在全国范围内，谁是老年人和更容易受到热的过度抽样个人。他们将立即（获奖后1个月内），6个月后（春季）和9个月后（夏季）进行调查。每个参与者每次都会得到相同的调查和指导，但会有四组。“自由回忆”对照组将被要求思考他们在没有收到任何进一步指示的情况下经历的2013年夏季温度，因此可以根据自然发生的记忆自由回答调查问题。“最高最高温度”回忆组将被要求回忆他们在2013年夏天经历的“最高最高”温度，“最不愉快的温度”回忆组将被要求回忆他们在2013年夏天经历的“最不愉快的”温度，然后回答调查的其余部分。这三个群体预计会更多地考虑令人愉快的炎热或令人不快的寒冷夏季天气，因为随着时间的推移，热量会增加，这可能会降低他们的风险认知和实施风险降低的意愿。只有第四组被问及他们在2013年夏天经历的“最令人不快的最高温度”，预计不会降低风险认知，气候变化担忧和实施风险降低的意愿。如果是这样的话，那么这些指示应该包括在防热通信中。后续工作将测试与公众对洪水、干旱和降雪等其他极端天气事件的反应有关的见解。我们的研究结果将影响如何设计有效的风险沟通的理论和实践，并有助于促进公众在面对极端天气时的准备和应变能力。

We propose a UK-wide study of public responses to the recent heat wave over time. We will test the effect of different ways of asking people to remember the recent heat wave on their heat-related risk perceptions, climate-change concerns, and willingness to implement heat-protection over time. If there is an effect, then public preparedness for heat waves could be improved by invoking memories of heat waves, thus helping people to avoid serious heat-related problems. Our findings are important for organisations such as the National Health Service (NHS) and Public Health England (PHE), which design communications to improve public heat protection.This work is urgent and policy relevant, because (1) heat waves are rare in the UK but are projected to become more common under a changing climate; (2) heat waves cause excess deaths, illness and discomfort; (3) little is known about people's willingness to implement heat-protection, but a few studies have shown that even at-risk adults do not see themselves as vulnerable to heat; (4) it remains unclear how to best motivate people to protect themselves, with policies such as the NHS/PHE heat wave plan not yet formally evaluated; and (5) attempts to promote public heat protection could be more effective if memories of experienced heat are rekindled.Our interdisciplinary team combines the needed expertise in behavioural decision research and environmental science, in which this proposal is grounded. Behavioural decision research shows that people think of their risks as lower than they actually are, unless they remember events that posed them at risk. Environmental science shows that extreme weather is memorable, but UK residents may feel 'nostalgic' as experienced heat is further in the past. Thus, communications that invoke memories of heat may work initially but become ineffective over time, unless memories of unpleasant heat are explicitly invoked. We are the first to test whether explicit instructions to remember experiences with unpleasant heat can help to avoid reductions in people's perceptions of heat-related risks, climate-change concerns, and willingness to implement heat protection over time.Our survey will recruit 1500 participants nationally, oversampling individuals who are older and more vulnerable to heat. They will be surveyed immediately (within 1 month of award), 6 months later (spring), and 9 months later (summer). Each participant will get the same survey and instructions each time, but there will be four groups. The 'free-recall' control group will be asked to think about 2013 summer temperatures they experienced without receiving any further instructions, and can thus freely answer the survey questions based on memories that are naturally occurring. The 'highest maximum temperature' recall group will be asked to remember 'the highest maximum' temperature they experienced in the summer of 2013, and the 'most unpleasant temperature' recall group will be asked to remember 'the most unpleasant' temperature they experienced in the summer of 2013, before answering the rest of the survey. These three groups are expected to think more of pleasant hot or unpleasant cold summer weather as positive affect about heat increases over time - possibly reducing their risk perceptions and willingness to implement risk reduction. Only the fourth group, which is asked for 'the most unpleasant highest maximum' temperature they experienced in the summer of 2013, is expected to avoid reductions in risk perceptions, climate-change concerns, and willingness to implement risk reduction. If so, then those instructions should be included in heat-protection communications.Follow-up work will test insights relevant to public responses to other extreme weather events, such as floods, droughts and snow. Our findings will impact theory and practice about how to design effective risk communication, and help to promote public preparedness and resilience in the face of extreme weather.