UNDERSTANDING PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS OF AND RESPONSES TO HEAT WAVES: A BEHAVIOURAL DECISION RESEARCH APPROACH

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We propose a UK-wide study of public responses to the recent heat wave over time. We will test the effect of different ways of asking people to remember the recent heat wave on their heat-related risk perceptions, climate-change concerns, and willingness to implement heat-protection over time. If there is an effect, then public preparedness for heat waves could be improved by invoking memories of heat waves, thus helping people to avoid serious heat-related problems. Our findings are important for organisations such as the National Health Service (NHS) and Public Health England (PHE), which design communications to improve public heat protection.This work is urgent and policy relevant, because (1) heat waves are rare in the UK but are projected to become more common under a changing climate; (2) heat waves cause excess deaths, illness and discomfort; (3) little is known about people's willingness to implement heat-protection, but a few studies have shown that even at-risk adults do not see themselves as vulnerable to heat; (4) it remains unclear how to best motivate people to protect themselves, with policies such as the NHS/PHE heat wave plan not yet formally evaluated; and (5) attempts to promote public heat protection could be more effective if memories of experienced heat are rekindled.Our interdisciplinary team combines the needed expertise in behavioural decision research and environmental science, in which this proposal is grounded. Behavioural decision research shows that people think of their risks as lower than they actually are, unless they remember events that posed them at risk. Environmental science shows that extreme weather is memorable, but UK residents may feel 'nostalgic' as experienced heat is further in the past. Thus, communications that invoke memories of heat may work initially but become ineffective over time, unless memories of unpleasant heat are explicitly invoked. We are the first to test whether explicit instructions to remember experiences with unpleasant heat can help to avoid reductions in people's perceptions of heat-related risks, climate-change concerns, and willingness to implement heat protection over time.Our survey will recruit 1500 participants nationally, oversampling individuals who are older and more vulnerable to heat. They will be surveyed immediately (within 1 month of award), 6 months later (spring), and 9 months later (summer). Each participant will get the same survey and instructions each time, but there will be four groups. The 'free-recall' control group will be asked to think about 2013 summer temperatures they experienced without receiving any further instructions, and can thus freely answer the survey questions based on memories that are naturally occurring. The 'highest maximum temperature' recall group will be asked to remember 'the highest maximum' temperature they experienced in the summer of 2013, and the 'most unpleasant temperature' recall group will be asked to remember 'the most unpleasant' temperature they experienced in the summer of 2013, before answering the rest of the survey. These three groups are expected to think more of pleasant hot or unpleasant cold summer weather as positive affect about heat increases over time - possibly reducing their risk perceptions and willingness to implement risk reduction. Only the fourth group, which is asked for 'the most unpleasant highest maximum' temperature they experienced in the summer of 2013, is expected to avoid reductions in risk perceptions, climate-change concerns, and willingness to implement risk reduction. If so, then those instructions should be included in heat-protection communications.Follow-up work will test insights relevant to public responses to other extreme weather events, such as floods, droughts and snow. Our findings will impact theory and practice about how to design effective risk communication, and help to promote public preparedness and resilience in the face of extreme weather.