Finance and Inclusive Growth in Low Income Countries: The Impact of Global Banking Regulation

在全球金融危机之后，工业化国家同意进行一系列监管改革，以修复和规范它们自己的金融体系。鼓励包括低收入国家在内的所有国家采用这些新的全球标准。二十国集团成员要求金融稳定理事会、国际货币基金组织和世界银行研究全球银行业举措将如何影响发展中国家和新兴经济体，将这一领域确定为促进包容性增长的关键政策关注点。迄今为止，关于这个问题的研究很少，几乎都是针对新兴市场经济体的。低收入国家政府和顾问表示，迫切需要对低收入国家进行具体分析。本项目将是首批研究政治制度和进程（国内和全球层面）如何影响全球银行业举措对低收入国家的影响及其利用资金流动促进包容性增长的能力的项目之一。核心研究问题是：(1)低收入国家在新的监管标准方面有多大的事实上的灵活性，他们需要多大的灵活性，以及在什么条件下（经济和政治；全球，区域和国家）他们应该采用新的监管标准？(2)影响全球标准制定过程和机构的哪些战略可能为低收入国家带来最佳结果？该项目结合了两种学科方法：政治学和经济学。它结合了定量和定性分析，并将产生新的数据集。产出将包括高质量的同行评审学术出版物和一系列量身定制的政策简报。该项目的目的是通过与面临研究解决的问题的政策制定者的持续直接接触，最大限度地发挥影响。研究问题的设计是在与低收入国家和发展中国家决策者的对话中进行的。我们将继续通过半结构化访谈与政策制定者接触；年度研讨会;并通过该项目的专家顾问委员会。董事会成员包括Vivienne Apopo（东非开发银行总干事）、Mthuli Ncube（非洲开发银行首席经济学家）、Amar Bhattacharya （G24秘书处主任）。主要受益者是监管机构、政府高级官员以及参与促进包容性、可持续增长的低收入国家的其他利益攸关方。这包括非洲银行监管机构共同体（CABS）；西非经济和货币联盟（西非货币联盟）银行委员会；安哥拉中央银行管理委员会；越南国家金融监督委员会；老挝银行商业银行监管部；坦桑尼亚和乌干达的中央银行。我们的影响力战略利用了我们的几位研究人员与低收入国家主要利益相关者之间现有的密切联系。该项目将提高低收入国家政府在金融监管方面做出选择的能力，并确保全球标准制定过程支持这些选择。它还将提高低收入国家学者和利益攸关方继续在国内进行研究的能力：为此目的，我们正在与国内研究人员合作进行案例研究，并让南方利益攸关方参与有针对性的传播。我们将直接与低收入国家的学术机构合作，如达累斯萨拉姆大学（坦桑尼亚）经济系；瓦加第二大学经济系和法律系（布基纳法索）；lomoise和Kara大学经济与管理学院（多哥）；阿戈斯蒂尼奥·内托大学经济系（安哥拉）；富布赖特学院（越南，哈佛大学肯尼迪学院和胡志明市经济大学合作）。该项目将利用全球经济治理计划（GEG）和牛津大学布拉瓦尼克政府学院的良好记录和广泛网络，享有现成的开发路线。

In the wake of the global financial crisis, industrialized countries have agreed a series of regulatory reforms to repair and regulate their own financial systems. All countries, including LICs are encouraged to adopt these new global standards. Members of the G20 have asked the Financial Stability Board, IMF and World Bank to study how global banking initiatives will impact developing and emerging economies, identifying this area as a key policy concern for promoting inclusive growth. To date the scant research on this question addresses almost exclusively emerging market economies. LIC governments and advisers have voiced an urgent need for LIC-specific analysis. This project will be amongst the very first to look at how political institutions and processes - at both the domestic and global levels - shape the impact of global banking initiatives on LICs and their ability to harness financial flows for inclusive growth. The core research questions are: (1) How much de facto flexibility do LICs have in respect of the new regulatory standards, how much do they need, and under what conditions (economic and political; global, regional and national) should they adopt new regulatory standards? (2) What strategies for influencing global standard-setting processes and institutions are likely to yield the best outcomes for LICs?The project combines two disciplinary approaches: political science and economics. It combines quantitative and qualitative analysis, and will generate new datasets. Outputs will include top-quality peer-reviewed academic publications and a series of tailored policy briefs. The project has been designed to maximize impact through continuous direct engagement with policy-makers confronting the problems the research addresses. The design of the research questions has been undertaken in dialogue with LIC and developing country policy-makers. We will continue to engage policy-makers through semi-structured interviews; annual workshops; and through the project's Expert Advisory Board. The Board includes Vivienne Apopo (Director General, East African Development Bank), Mthuli Ncube (Chief Economist, African Development Bank), Amar Bhattacharya (Director, G24 Secretariat).Key beneficiaries are regulators, senior government officials, and other stakeholders in LICs engaged with promoting inclusive, sustainable growth. This includes the Community of African Banking Supervisors (CABS); the Banking Commission of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU); the Regulatory Committee of the Central Bank of Angola; the National Financial Supervision Council (NFSC) of Vietnam; the Commercial Bank Supervision Department of the Bank of Laos; and the Central Banks of Tanzania and Uganda. Our impact strategy leverages existing close links between several of our researchers and key stakeholders in LICs. The project will enhance the capacity of LIC governments to make choices about financial regulation, and to ensure global standard-setting processes support these choices. It will also enhance the capacity of scholars and stakeholders in LICs to continue the research in-country: to this end we are working with in-country researchers on the case studies and engaging Southern stakeholders with targeted dissemination. We will engage directly with academic institutions in LICs, such as the Department of Economics, University of Dar es Salaam (Tanzania); the Departments of Economics and Law, University Ouaga II (Burkina Faso); the Economics and Management Faculty of Lomé and Kara Universities (Togo); the Economics Department, Agostinho Neto University (Angola); the Fulbright School (Vietnam, a partnership between Harvard Kennedy School and University of Economics, Ho Chi Minh City).The project will enjoy a ready exploitation route, building on the excellent track record and extensive network of the Global Economic Governance Programme (GEG) and the Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford.