权益分类	功能权益	普通用户	{{item.name}}会员
{{category.name}}	{{benefitItem.name}}

Evaluation, Revision and Extension of Ethnic Population Projections - NewETHPOP

少数民族人口预测的评估、修订和扩展 - NewETHPOP

基本信息

批准号：
ES/L013878/1
负责人：
Philip Rees
金额：
$ 18.88万
依托单位：
University of Leeds
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2015
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2015 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FL013878%2F1
关键词：
Evaluation Revision Extension Ethnic Population

项目摘要

SummaryThis project aims to understand and to forecast the ethnic transition in the United Kingdom's population at national and subnational levels. The ethnic transition is the change in population composition from one dominated by the White British to much greater diversity. In the decade 2001-2011 the UK population grew strongly as a result of high immigration, increased fertility and reduced mortality. Both the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and Leeds University estimated the growth or decline in the sixteen ethnic groups making up the UK's population in 2001. The 2011 Census results revealed that both teams had over-estimated the growth of the White British population and under-estimated the growth of the ethnic minority populations. The wide variation between our local authority projected populations in 2011 and the Census suggested inaccurate forecasting of internal migration. We propose to develop, working closely with ONS as our first external partner, fresh estimates of mid-year ethnic populations and their components of change using new data on the later years of the decade and new methods to ensure the estimates agree in 2011 with the Census. This will involve using population accounting theory and an adjustment technique known as iterative proportional fitting to generate a fully consistent set of ethnic population estimates between 2001 and 2011.We will study, at national and local scales, the development of demographic rates for ethnic group populations (fertility, mortality, internal migration and international migration). The ten year time series of component summary indicators and age-specific rates will provide a basis for modelling future assumptions for projections. We will, in our main projection, align the assumptions to the ONS 2012-based principal projection. The national assumptions will need conversion to ethnic groups and to local scale. The ten years of revised ethnic-specific component rates will enable us to study the relationships between national and local demographic trends. In addition, we will analyse a consistent time series of local authority internal migration. We cannot be sure, at this stage, how the national-local relationships for each ethnic group will be modelled but we will be able to test our models using the time series. Of course, all future projections of the population are uncertain. We will therefore work to measure the uncertainty of component rates. The error distributions can be used to construct probability distributions of future populations via stochastic projections so that we can define confidence intervals around our projections. Users of projections are always interested in the impact of the component assumptions on future populations. We will run a set of reference projections to estimate the magnitude and direction of impact of international migrations assumptions (net effect of immigration less emigration), of internal migration assumptions (the net effect of in-migration less out-migration), of fertility assumptions compared with replacement level, of mortality assumptions compared with no change and finally the effect of the initial age distribution (i.e. demographic potential).The outputs from the project will be a set of technical reports on each aspect of the research, journal papers submitted for peer review and a database of projection inputs and outputs available to users via the web. The demographic inputs will be subject to quality assurance by Edge Analytics, our second external partner. They will also help in disseminating these inputs to local government users who want to use them in their own ethnic projections. In sum, the project will show how a wide range of secondary data sources can be used in theoretically refined demographic models to provide us with a more reliable picture of how the UK population is going to change in ethnic composition.

本项目旨在了解和预测联合王国国家和国家以下各级人口的种族过渡。种族转变是指人口构成从以白色英国人为主转变为更加多样化。在2001年至2011年的十年中，英国人口由于高移民，生育率增加和死亡率降低而强劲增长。英国国家统计局和利兹大学都对2001年组成英国人口的16个民族的增长或下降进行了估计。2011年人口普查结果显示，两个团队都高估了英国白色人口的增长，低估了少数民族人口的增长。我国地方当局预测的2011年人口与人口普查之间的巨大差异表明，对国内移徙的预测不准确。我们建议与国家统计局密切合作，作为我们的第一个外部合作伙伴，使用十年后期的新数据和新方法，对年中少数民族人口及其变化组成部分进行新的估计，以确保2011年的估计与人口普查一致。这将涉及到使用人口核算理论和调整技术，称为迭代比例拟合，以产生一个完全一致的一套种族人口估计2001年至2011年。我们将研究，在国家和地方规模，发展的人口率的种族群体的人口（生育率，死亡率，内部迁移和国际迁移）。组成部分汇总指标和年龄别比率的十年时间序列将为今后预测假设的建模提供基础。在我们的主要预测中，我们将使假设与基于ONS 2012的主要预测保持一致。国家的假设将需要转换为族裔群体和地方规模。10年来修订的具体种族组成比率将使我们能够研究国家和地方人口趋势之间的关系。此外，我们将分析地方当局内部移徙的一致时间序列。在现阶段，我们无法确定如何模拟每个民族的国家-地方关系，但我们将能够使用时间序列来测试我们的模型。当然，对人口的所有未来预测都是不确定的。因此，我们将努力衡量组件速率的不确定性。误差分布可以通过随机投影来构建未来人口的概率分布，以便我们可以定义投影周围的置信区间。预测的使用者总是对组成部分的假设对未来人口的影响感兴趣。我们将运行一组参考预测，以估计国际移民假设的影响程度和方向（移入减去移出的净影响），国内移徙假设（迁入人口减去迁出人口的净影响），生育率假设与更替水平的比较，最后是初始年龄分布的影响该项目的产出将是一套关于研究各个方面的技术报告、提交同行审查的期刊论文以及通过网络向用户提供的预测投入和产出数据库。人口统计输入将受到我们的第二个外部合作伙伴Edge Analytics的质量保证。它们还将帮助向地方政府用户传播这些投入，以便在其自己的族裔预测中使用这些投入。总而言之，该项目将展示如何在理论上完善的人口模型中使用广泛的二级数据源，为我们提供更可靠的英国人口种族构成变化的情况。