Food Fraud: A Supply Network Integrated Systems Analysis

这项研究的目的是开发一种预测计算方法来对食品供应网络进行建模，以便识别可能发生食品掺假的点。通过识别供应链中这些易受掺假影响的点，将允许监管机构和零售商采取适当行动，避免食品掺假。该项目汇集了来自分析科学、预测建模、法律、犯罪学和商业研究的跨学科研究团队。这一建议具有很高的创新性，因为它利用了不同学科之间的动态，使供应网络集成系统分析的发展成为解决食品掺假问题的令人兴奋和开创性的发展。食品欺诈不仅是当代现象，故意在食品中掺假由来已久，最近在整个欧洲发生的事件似乎是一个需要解决的持续问题。虽然犯罪组织和食品掺假之间的联系并不是食品掺假研究的具体重点，但最近发生的牛肉供应链掺入马肉的事件引发了一些与不受监管的食品供应链的潜在后果有关的食品保护问题。该项目的成果将是一个风险计算模型，用于预测食品供应链中的欺诈性掺假机会和脆弱性。这将使人们能够通过犯罪和其他行动预测潜在的食品掺假事件，例如加强对已查明的脆弱性临界点的监测。这种分析有助于了解监管框架和现行市场条件如何影响和造成食品供应链的脆弱性。这些脆弱性将与犯罪机会和市场结构有关。将探讨这些不同要素之间的相互作用，以确定它们如何提供犯罪机会，以及供应链中的合法行为者如何利用这些机会。综合系统分析模型将是动态的，并对供应链中可能的位置和掺假机会进行预测。这种动态模型在许多其他领域都有应用，并将对食品监管机构、零售商以及最终的消费者有利。预测食品供应链中的风险点和脆弱性将为广泛的利益攸关方和利害关系方带来重大好处。食品加工商和零售商将能够通过采取行动，确保他们的食品不被掺假，从而维护自己的声誉。这将有助于消费者对英国食品供应链的信心和信任。最后，监管机构将能够制定有针对性的检测和预防战略，以解决不道德行为和减少犯罪机会。

The aim of this research is to develop a predictive computational approach to modeling the food supply network so that the points where food adulteration can occur are identified. By identifying these points of vulnerability to adulteration within the supply chain will allow regulators and retailers to take appropriate action to avoid food adulteration.This project brings together an interdisciplinary team of researchers from analytical sciences, predictive modeling, law, criminology and business studies. This proposal is highly innovative in that it exploits the dynamics between the diverse disciplines that makes the development of a Supply network integrated systems analysis an exciting and groundbreaking development in tackling issues of food adulteration. Food fraud is not just a contemporary phenomenon and the deliberate adulteration of food products has a long history and with recent events throughout Europe appears to be an ongoing problem that needs to be addressed. Whilst the link between criminal organisations and food adulteration has not been a specific focus of food adulteration research, the recent incidences of adulteration of the bovine meat supply chain with horsemeat have raised a number of food protection issues related to the potential consequences of unregulated food supply chains. The outcome of this project will be a computational model of risk for predicting fraudulent opportunities for adulteration and points of vulnerability within food supply chains. This will allow for the prediction of potential food adulteration incidences through criminal and other action such as increased monitoring of the identified critical points of vulnerability. Such an analysis allows for an understanding of how the regulatory framework and the prevailing market conditions impact on and create vulnerabilities in food supply chains. These vulnerabilities will be examined in relation to criminal opportunities and market structures. Interactions between these different elements will be explored to identify how they provide criminal opportunities and how legitimate actors within the supply chain are placed to take advantage of such opportunities. The integrative systems analysis model will be dynamic and predictive of possible locations and opportunities for adulteration within the length of the supply chain. Such a dynamic model has application within a number of other arenas and would be of benefit to food regulators, retailers, and ultimately consumers. The prediction of risk points and vulnerabilities within the food supply chain will provide significant benefit to a wide range of stakeholders and interested parties. Food processors and retailers will be able to maintain their reputations by taking action to ensure that they have protected their food products from adulteration. This will contribute to consumer confidence and trust in UK food supply chains. Finally, regulators will be able to develop well targeted detection and prevention strategies to address unethical behaviour and reduce criminal opportunities.