1. Modelling the economic impacts of "Brexit". 2. Free movement: economic and social impacts, past and future

1. 模拟“英国脱欧”的经济影响。

基本信息

批准号：
ES/N003667/1
负责人：
Jonathan Portes
金额：
$ 54.93万
依托单位：
National Institute of Economic and Social Research
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Fellowship
财政年份：
2015
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2015 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FN003667%2F1
关键词：
1.Modelling economic impacts Brexit

项目摘要

The research will focus on two key areas:- Free movement of people within the European Union; currently the single most controversial aspect of the UK's membership . This will cover the economic, social and political impact of intra-EU migration on the UK; potential future impacts, if the UK remains within the EU, and if it does not, including new modelling of the long-term economic and fiscal impacts: migration policy options for the UK if it leaves the UK as EU; comparative analysis of the impact of free movement on other EU countries. - Addressing the key question of the economic impact of a possible UK exit, through the specification, elaboration and quantification of possible future economic scenarios for the UK, inside or outside the EU. This will make use where possible of NIESR's global macroeconometric model, NiGEM, and cover as far as possible the different economic aspects of EU membership (trade, regulation, capital mobility, free movement, budgetary spending, etc). In addition we will identify evidence gaps where further research could advance our understanding of these impactsI, and NIESR, are particularly well placed to undertake this work. - I have been active in immigration research for 15 years, and was responsible for the first major UK government study of the impacts of immigration (Portes, 2001), as well as the first analysis of the labour market impacts of EU migration (Portes and French, 2006); as a senior civil servant, I was closely involved in policy decisions relating to free movement in government; and I am now the most prominent academic commenting publicly on immigration issues, appearing frequently in both broadcast and print media. - NIESR is the only UK academic institution which possesses a fully specified structural econometric model of the global economy, incorporating country models of the UK and all significant EU economies; NiGEM has previously been used to estimate the transition costs and economic dynamics of UK exit (Pan and Young, 2004); it is used by the Bank of England, ECB, IMF, OECD and several other European central banks for simulation purposes. NiGEM is particularly well suited for the type of simulation analysis required for credible modelling of the potential impacts of EU exit across a number of dimensions. - NIESR has an excellent network of contacts among policymakers (HMT, OBR, BIS, BoE) and the business community (CBI, FSB, etc) who will both help inform the research and will be key audiences for the output. We also have links with comparable research institutions elsewhere in the EU and with policymakers in Brussels. - NIESR's record on the Future of Scotland fellowship shows our capacity to produce timely, objective, academically high quality research and to disseminate it widely to policymakers, media and the general public. Monique Ebell, Angus Armstrong's co-author for much of the Scotland work, will also work on this project. The outputs will be a combination of synthesis of existing work across a number of disciplines and new research, quantitative and qualitative. Building on NIESR's existing networks and strong track record, as well as my own personal media profile, we envisage a very active programme of dissemination through both traditional and innovative channels. NIESR is extremely well placed to undertake an active programme of dissemination of the outputs not just of this research but of the wider work of the ESRC programme. Given both our geographic location and our close contact with economic policymakers (we have excellent links with the Treasury, BIS, Bank of England, DWP, and OBR) we could serve as a hub for engaging policymakers with the programme. If funded, we would also look to undertake further work in cooperation with research partners elsewhere in the EU, and possibly in the US.

该研究将重点放在两个关键领域： - 欧盟内部人民的自由运动；目前，英国会员资格中最有争议的方面。这将涵盖欧盟内部移民对英国的经济，社会和政治影响；如果英国留在欧盟内，并且不在欧盟内，则可能会产生潜在的未来影响，包括对长期经济和财政影响的新建模：如果英国离开英国为欧盟，则对英国的移民政策选择；自由流动对其他欧盟国家的影响的比较分析。 - 通过规范，阐述和量化欧盟内部或外部的可能未来经济方案的规范，阐述和量化英国退出的经济影响的关键问题。这将使NIESR的全球宏观经济学模型（Nigem）尽可能使用，并尽可能覆盖欧盟成员资格的不同经济方面（贸易，法规，资本流动性，自由流动，预算支出等）。此外，我们将确定证据差距，进一步的研究可以提高我们对这些影响的理解，而NIESR则在从事这项工作方面尤为好。 - 我从事移民研究工作了15年，并负责英国对移民影响的首次重大政府研究（Portes，2001年），以及对欧盟移民劳动力市场影响的首次分析（Portes and French，2006）；作为一名高级公务员，我密切参与了与政府自由运动有关的政策决定；我现在是关于移民问题的最杰出的学术评论，经常出现在广播和印刷媒体中。 -NIESR是唯一拥有全球经济的完全指定结构计量经济学模型的英国学术机构，融合了英国和所有重要的欧盟经济体的国家模式； Nigem先前已被用来估计英国出口的过渡成本和经济动态（Pan and Young，2004年）；英格兰银行，欧洲央行，IMF，OECD和其他几家欧洲中央银行用于模拟目的。 Nigem特别适合于可靠地建模欧盟退出在许多维度上的潜在影响所需的模拟分析类型。 -NIESR在政策制定者（HMT，OBR，BIS，BOE）和商业社区（CBI，FSB等）之间建立了良好的联系网络，他们都将帮助您提供研究，并将成为产出的关键受众。我们还与欧盟其他地方的可比研究机构以及布鲁塞尔的决策者有联系。 -NIESR在苏格兰奖学金的未来记录中，我们有能力生产及时，客观，学术上高质量的研究，并将其广泛传播给政策制定者，媒体和公众。安格斯·阿姆斯特朗（Angus Armstrong）的合着者莫妮克·埃贝尔（Monique Ebell）也将在这个项目上工作。这些输出将是在许多学科和新的研究中的现有工作综合的结合，以及定量和定性。在NIESR的现有网络和强劲的往绩以及我自己的个人媒体个人资料的基础上，我们设想通过传统和创新渠道进行非常活跃的传播计划。 NIESR非常适合实施积极的计划，不仅是本研究的输出，而且对ESRC计划的更广泛工作。鉴于我们的地理位置以及我们与经济政策制定者的密切联系（我们与财政部，BIS，英格兰银行，DWP和OBR有着良好的联系），我们可以作为使决策者参与该计划的枢纽。如果资助，我们还希望与欧盟其他地方以及美国其他地方的研究伙伴合作进行进一步的工作。