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Innovations in Small Area Estimation Methodologies

小区域估算方法的创新

基本信息

批准号：
ES/N011619/1
负责人：
Nikolaos Tzavidis
金额：
$ 82.6万
依托单位：
University of Southampton
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2016
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2016 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FN011619%2F1
关键词：
Innovations Small Area Estimation Methodologies

项目摘要

Reliable statistics are crucial for policy relevant research. Small Area Estimation (SAE) methods generate robust reliable and consistent statistics at geographical scales for which survey data are either non-existent or too sparse to provide direct estimates of acceptable accuracy. The last decade has seen a rapid increase in the use of SAE. Statistical agencies and Governmental organisations are actively developing their own suites of estimates. In the UK the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has responded to user demands by producing estimates of average household income for wards and using SAE to answer queries from local authorities, policy advisers and government departments. The Welsh Assembly Government (WAG) is actively seeking to develop capacity for SAE. Public Health England produces SAEs of adolescent smoking and chronic kidney disease.Initial demands for small area statistics are now shifting to requirements for more complex statistics that extend beyond averages and proportions to encompass estimates of statistical distributions, multidimensional indicators (e.g. inequality and deprivation indicators) and methods for replacing the Census and adjusting Census results for undercount. These developing requirements pose significant methodological and applied real-world challenges. These challenges are deepened by different methodological approaches to SAE remaining largely unconnected, locked in disciplinary silos. The technical presentation of SAE also impedes more widespread uptake by social scientists and understanding by users.The proposed programme of work aims to (a) develop novel SAE methodologies to better serve the needs of users and producers of SAE (b) bridge different methodological approaches to SAE, (c) apply SAE for answering substantive questions in the social sciences and (d) 'Mainstream' SAE within the quantitative social sciences through the creation of methodologically comprehensive and accessible resources. The project comprises three work packages of methodological innovative research designed to deepen the understanding of SAE and achieve the aforementioned aims. The project will capitalise on a cross-disciplinary research team drawn together through an NCRM methodological network and reflecting a large part of the SAE expertise in the UK. Through long-standing collaborations with national and international agencies in the UK, Mexico and Brazil, which are placed at the centre of the project, we enjoy access to individual level secondary survey and Census data. Collaboration with key SAE users will ensure that the project remains relevant to user needs and that methodologies are used for expanding the set of small area statistics currently available. The involvement of international experts ensures the quality and relevance of the research.Substantive outputs will include SAEs of attributes of interest to users, including income, inequality, deprivation, health, ethnicity and a realistic pseudo-Census dataset for use by other researchers. The project will advance knowledge across disciplines in the social sciences including social statistics, applied economics, human geography and sociology. It will additionally impact on the production of official and Census statistics. The project is committed to adding value to NCRM's training and capacity building activities by developing new resources.

可靠的统计数据对政策相关研究至关重要。小区域估计（SAE）方法在地理尺度上产生可靠和一致的统计数据，因为调查数据要么不存在，要么过于稀疏，无法提供可接受精度的直接估计。在过去的十年中，SAE的使用迅速增加。统计机构和政府组织正在积极开发它们自己的估算套件。在英国，国家统计局（ONS）通过估算病房的平均家庭收入，并使用SAE来回答来自地方当局、政策顾问和政府部门的询问，以此回应用户的需求。威尔士议会政府（WAG）正在积极寻求发展SAE的能力。英国公共卫生部公布了青少年吸烟和慢性肾脏疾病的SAEs。最初对小地区统计的需求现在转变为对更复杂的统计的需求，这些统计超出了平均值和比例的范围，包括统计分布的估计、多维指标（例如不平等和剥夺指标）以及取代普查和调整普查结果的方法。这些不断发展的需求构成了方法论和应用现实世界的重大挑战。这些挑战因SAE的不同方法而加深，这些方法在很大程度上是不相关的，被锁在学科孤岛中。SAE的技术表述也阻碍了社会科学家更广泛的接受和用户的理解。拟议的工作计划旨在(a)开发新的SAE方法，以更好地满足SAE用户和生产者的需求(b)桥接SAE的不同方法方法，(c)应用SAE来回答社会科学中的实质性问题和(d)通过创建方法上全面和可访问的资源，在定量社会科学中“主流”SAE。该项目包括三个方法论创新研究工作包，旨在加深对SAE的理解并实现上述目标。该项目将利用一个跨学科的研究团队，通过NCRM方法网络聚集在一起，并反映了英国SAE的大部分专业知识。通过与英国、墨西哥和巴西等国家和国际机构的长期合作，我们可以获得个人二级调查和人口普查数据。与主要SAE用户的合作将确保项目与用户需求保持相关性，并使用方法来扩展现有的小区域统计数据集。国际专家的参与确保了研究的质量和相关性。实质性产出将包括用户感兴趣的属性的sa，包括收入、不平等、剥夺、健康、种族和供其他研究人员使用的真实的伪人口普查数据集。该计划将促进社会科学各学科的知识，包括社会统计学、应用经济学、人文地理学和社会学。它还将影响官方和人口普查统计数据的编制。该项目致力于通过开发新资源，为NCRM的培训和能力建设活动增加价值。