A Panel Survey Study of the 2016 EU Referendum British Election Study Linked Project with UK in a Changing Europe Initiative

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Britain will hold a referendum on its membership of the European Union on June 23rd 2016. The poll will be a once in a generation event providing a unique opportunity to guage and understand public opinion as it pertains to the EU, to understand the factors that shape opinion towards the EU, and to grasp the ways, if any, in which the referendum might reflect, or contribute to, any ongoing realignment of British politics. The funds requested will provide added value out of two existing large scale ESRC investments - the British Election Survey and the UK in a changing Europe initiative. This new project will provide highly useful new data, original analysis, and reinforce the knowledge transfer, dissemination and public engagement activities the two major investments already undertake. Using a large scale national opinion surveys in the run-up to the referendum and following it, and building on previous British Election Surveys, the project will examine the following areas:(i) whether people believe the UK currently gets a fair deal from the EU, the extent to which voters perceive immigration control as dependent on leaving the EU, whether renegotiation is successful, and economic expectations conditional on leaving or staying in the EU. Given the likely salience of the immigration crisis, respondents will also be asked about their knowledge about where immigrants to the UK come from - original member states, accession states, non-EU economic migrants/political asylum seekers, and students. (ii) voters' understanding of the political context of the referendum, including knowledge about the EU position each of the parties holds as well as perceptions of elite division over EU, and the binding nature of the outcome.(iii) in order to embed responses to these questions in social and political context there will be batteries of partisanship questions, general political knowledge questions, and questions related to expressed interest in the referendum campaign. The potentially important role of debates played out in the full glare of the media spotlight would be examined through media consumption questions across the period leading up to the vote. Mobilization by competing sides in the referendum is another potentially significant area to be examined. (iv) The uncertainty of what would happen in the event of a vote to leave the EU is likely to be an important factor, as are the risks associated with leaving - as demonstrated by the BES study with respect to the Scottish Referendum. To address this we will include measures of risk aversion- this is likely to be an important influence on individual differences in voting - and uncertainty is likely to be a significant contextual factor. (v) With regard to the consequences of the Referendum, there is inevitably the question of whether the outcome will obtain the loser's consent. The perceived legitimacy of the referendum is likely to have pronounced political consequences. The post-referendum surveys in 2016 and 2017 would therefore include questions that enquire about these issues. This will facilitate further consequences of the referendum outcome to be examined, including whether the referendum will placate or exacerbate anti-EU politics in the case of a vote to remain in the EU; the extent to which anti-EU sentiment becomes synonymous with UKIP support, or otherwise; and the possibility of a strengthening political realignment around the EU issue after the referendum. This potential reshaping of the British electoral landscape has been in train since Labour's policy reversal on the EU in the late 1980s, and the implications it carries for the internal coherence of the major parties, particularly the Conservatives for whom the EU has been a long-standing and at times highly destructive dilemma, are potentially fundamental for Britain's party system.