Research on China's Financial System towards Sustainable Growth: The Role of Innovation, Diversity and Financial Regulation

中国经受住了国际金融危机的考验。因此，乍一看——如果历史对中国未来的韧性有很好的指导作用的话——人们不应该过于担心金融稳定。当然，房价上涨可能是不稳定因素之一。然而，自2016年2月以来，贷款标准似乎很严格，首次购房者的最低首付为20%，第二套住房的最低首付为30%。中国人民银行最近公布的数据显示，截至2016年4月底，银行贷款同比增长14.07%，经济中信贷总额增长13.13%。有趣的是，贷款的增长速度似乎快于信贷——自2014年以来，这种特别奇怪的不规律一直困扰着中国经济。截至2016年4月，影子银行占信贷总额的15.19%（约占GDP的50%）。影子银行的扩张似乎是对很大一部分经济，特别是中小企业（SMEs）面临资金限制的融资渠道差异的回应。此外，最近的技术进步和基础设施的改善（例如高速互联网接入）有助于使越来越多的最终用户获得金融创新。众筹和p2p借贷平台等金融科技（fintech）在中国兴起，为获取金融服务提供了新的途径。尽管中国新兴的金融科技业务具有相当大的潜力，但最近的一些问题，例如p2p贷款机构e租宝的倒闭，突显了对该行业进行更好监管的必要性。我们的项目旨在回答一个首要的研究问题：中国的金融体系如何促进经济的可持续发展？这进一步分为两个子问题：(1)金融部门改革如何改善普惠金融，促进可持续增长和发展；(2)如何维护中国的金融稳定？我们的建议将侧重于可持续经济增长，考虑经济、社会和环境目标之间的权衡。只有在包容性增长和考虑环境风险的情况下，经济增长才是可持续的。该项目分为六个工作包。WP1将对中国普惠金融与风险的前期研究进行概述和荟萃分析。WP1将考虑中国的金融科技企业及其在促进普惠金融方面的作用，以及它们对金融风险的贡献。WP2将模拟金融发展、金融创新和可持续增长之间的联系。潜在地，我们项目最重要的贡献是构建了中国多样性和弹性的新指数，该指数评估了2000-2016年三个主要金融市场：存款、抵押贷款和商业贷款。WP4将使用这些指数来检验多样性对金融普惠性和稳定性的影响。WP5将探讨中国《企业破产法》及其对普惠金融的影响。除了这一具体的政策变化之外，WP5还将开发先进的定量方法来评估政策变化的影响，并考虑因果顺序。WP6将评估中国金融业在促进绿色金融方面的合规程度。环境风险被视为金融部门的重大风险，金融部门也是决定将资金分配到可持续或不可持续投资的地方。中国人民银行首席经济学家马军在央行内部成立了大型工作组，中国人民银行还成立了绿色金融委员会，以发展绿色金融实践，包括环境信息披露、银行业环境压力测试和绿色中国海外投资指导方针。我们将评估这些最近的政策变化是否引发了贷款实践的变化

China withstood the Global Financial Crisis. Hence, at a first glance - if history is a good guide for China's resilience in future - one should not be too concerned about financial stability. Of course, house price inflation might be a source of instability. However, lending criteria seem to be robust with minimum down payments of 20% for first time buyers and 30% for second homes since February 2016. Recent data published by the People's Bank of China (PBoC) show that bank loans grew by 14.07% year-on-year to the end of April 2016, and total credit in the economy expanded by 13.13%. Interestingly, loans seem to grow faster than credit - a particularly curious irregularity that has afflicted the Chinese economy since 2014. As of April 2016, shadow banking accounts for 15.19% of total credit (approximately 50% of GDP). The expansion of shadow banking seems to be a response to disparities in access to finance with large parts of the economy, notably small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs), facing financial constraints. Moreover, recent technological advances and improvements in infrastructure (e.g. high-speed internet access) have helped to make financial innovations available to an increasing number of end-users. Financial technology (fintech) such as crowd-funding and peer-to-peer lending platforms have emerged in China, offering new ways to access financial services. In spite of the considerable potential of newly emerging fintech businesses in China, recent issues, e.g. the collapse of the peer-to-peer lender Ezubao, highlight the need for better regulation of the industry. Our project aims to answer the overarching research question: how can the Chinese financial system contribute to sustainable economic development? This is further divided into two sub questions: (1) how can financial sector reforms improve financial inclusion, contributing to sustainable growth and development, and (2) how to safeguard financial stability in China? Our proposal will focus on sustainable economic growth, which considers trade-offs between economic, social and environmental targets. Economic growth is only sustainable if growth is inclusive and environmental risks are considered. The project is organised in six work packages (WPs). WP1 will provide an overview and a meta-analysis based on prior research on financial inclusion and risk in China. WP1 will consider fintech businesses in China and their role in promoting inclusive finance as well as their alleged contribution to financial risk. WP2 will model the link between financial development, financial innovations and sustainable growth. Potentially, the most significant contribution of our project is the construction of novel indexes for diversity and resilience in China, which assess three key financial markets: deposits, mortgages and business loans from 2000-2016. WP4 will use these indexes to examine the impact of diversity on financial inclusion and stability. WP5 will explore China's Enterprise Bankruptcy Law and its impact on inclusive finance. Apart from this specific policy change, WP5 will develop advanced quantitative methods to evaluate the impact of policy changes, taking into account causal order. WP6 will assess the extent of compliance in the Chinese financial industry regarding the promotion of green finance. Environmental risk is seen as a material risk to the financial sector, and the financial sector is also the place where the allocation of capital into sustainable or non-sustainable investments is decided. Ma Jun, the PBoC's Chief Economist, has set up large working groups within the central bank, and the Green Finance Committee was set up by the PBoC to develop green finance practices including environmental disclosure, environmental stress testing for the banking sector, and guidelines on greening China's overseas investment. We will assess whether these recent policy changes have triggered a change in lending practices