The Financialisation of Urban Development and Associated Financial Risks in China

近几十年来，中国的金融体系通过所谓的“土地融资”（土地抵押）促进了住房、土地和基础设施建设的快速经济增长。中国住房、土地和基础设施的“金融化”--利用金融工具将建筑环境转化为投资机会--为中国经济带来了动力和活力，并导致了财富积累。最近发明了真实的房地产融资工具，如真实的房地产投资信托基金、抵押贷款证券化、反向抵押贷款和基础设施方面的公私伙伴关系。另一方面，传统的真实的房地产金融产品如住房抵押贷款和真实的房地产贷款受益于基于互联网的新型金融。中国真实的房地产金融目前已经进入“金融爆炸”阶段。然而，具体的渠道、复杂的安排和新的文书并不完全清楚。该研究项目旨在调查住房、土地和基础设施实际上是如何融资的，新的金融工具是什么，“金融化”的趋势在多大程度上，以及与这种转变相关的风险是什么。我们研究了金融化的形式和参与的形式和程度方面的最新趋势正式和非正式的（“影子银行”）部门在真实的房地产开发。我们将分析REITS和PPP的最新发展，以显示房地产、土地和基础设施项目中的金融资本流入。我们探讨了在缺乏更发达的金融体系的情况下，中国房地产繁荣是如何融资的，以及金融业在多大程度上促进了房地产和土地资产的整体升值。我们还将尝试了解金融化对家庭、企业和地方政府财政的潜在影响（即“地方债务”问题），以及影响金融稳定的主要因素是什么。该项目调查了三个层次的融资机制：项目和企业、地方政府和个人家庭。我们选择了六个案例城市：沿海地区：上海和深圳;中部地区：郑州和长沙;西部地区：重庆和成都。在项目层面，我们将深入采访开发商、真实的地产代理和当地政府官员，以了解这些项目复杂的财务安排。在地方政府（市）层面，我们将研究有关建筑环境金融的制度环境和政策，包括住房公积金的参与。在家庭层面，该项目将对这些城市的3,000名房主进行调查，以了解家庭获得金融部门的情况。该研究项目将评估中国住房、土地和基础设施领域金融化的近期趋势，并对不断变化的金融模式、其动态和新的制度环境提供细致入微的理解。该项目将审查这些部门的新兴金融产品和新渠道及其运作机制。该项目将侧重于家庭金融行为，以了解真实的房地产金融化的新趋势及其对住房消费，投资行为和就业偏好的影响。该项目将进一步评估宏观经济影响，如对中国金融体系、金融产品创新、财政政策和公司投资的影响。最后，这些调查结果将导致对与金融化相关的潜在风险进行评估，并提出风险管理建议。

The Chinese financial system has fostered rapid economic growth in recent decades through so-called 'land-based financing' (tudi chaizhen) in housing, land and infrastructure development. The 'financialisation' of Chinese housing, land and infrastructure - the use of financial instruments to convert the built environment into investment opportunities - generates momentum and vitality in the Chinese economy and has led to wealth accumulation. Real estate financing instruments such as the real estate investment trust (REITS), mortgage securitisation, reverse mortgages and public-private partnerships (PPP) in infrastructure have been recently invented. On the other hand, traditional real estate financial products such as household mortgages and real estate loans benefit from new internet-based finance. Chinese real estate finance has now entered a phase of 'financial explosion'. However, the concrete channels, complex arrangements and new instruments are not entirely known. This research project aims to investigate how housing, land and infrastructure are actually financed, what are the new financial instruments, to what extent there is a trend of 'financialisation', and what are the risks associated with this transformation. We examine the recent trend of financialisation in terms of the forms and extent of the involvement of both the formal and the unofficial ('shadow banking') sectors in real estate development. Recent developments in REITS and PPP will be examined to show the inflow of financial capital in housing, land, and infrastructure projects. We explore how the Chinese housing boom has been financed in the absence of a more developed financial system, and to what extent the financial sector has contributed to the overall appreciation of housing and land assets. We will also try to understand the potential impacts of financialisation on households, enterprises and local government finances (i.e. the issue of 'local debt') and what are the main factors affecting financial stability. The project investigates three levels of financing mechanisms: projects and enterprises, local governments, and individual households. We choose six case cities: in the coastal region, Shanghai and Shenzhen; the central region: Zhengzhou and Changsha; the western region: Chongqing and Chengdu. At the project level, we will conduct in-depth interviews with developers, real estate agents and local government officials so as to understand the complex financial arrangements of these projects. At the local government (city) level, we will examine the institutional environment and policies regarding built environment finance, including the involvement of housing provident funds. At the household level, the project will conduct a survey of 3,000 homeowners in these cities to understand household access to the financial sector. This research project will assess the recent trend of financialisation in Chinese housing, land and infrastructure sectors and provide a nuanced understanding of the changing financial mode, its dynamics and the new institutional environment. The project will examine emerging financial products and new channels in these sectors and their operational mechanisms. The project will focus on household financial behaviour to understand the new trend of financialisation of real estate and its impact on housing consumption, investment behaviour, and job preference. The project will further assess macroeconomic implications such as the impact on the Chinese financial system, financial product innovation, fiscal policies and company investment. Finally, these findings will lead to an assessment of the potential risks associated with financialisation and recommendations for risk management.