The Economic Impacts on Brexit on the UK, its Regions, its Cities and its Sectors

英国脱欧对英国、其部门、城市和地区的经济影响英国脱欧对英国部门、地区和城市的经济影响是什么？我们最近的研究结果表明，英国投票支持脱欧的城市和地区在经济上对欧盟市场的繁荣和生存能力的依赖程度也最高。这是由于它们的部门和贸易构成不同造成的。不同的部门可能产生不同的影响，部门之间也可能产生不同的影响，这些关系在国家各地区也不同。一些行业、一些地区和一些城市将比其他行业更敏感、更容易受到英国与欧盟贸易关系可能因英国退欧而发生的任何变化的影响，它们的长期竞争力地位将比其他行业更不强劲、更脆弱。这表明，在英国-欧盟国家谈判的背景下，需要非常仔细地考虑这些部门和地区差异，以便英国退欧后的协议在政治、社会和经济上在全国范围内可持续。该项目旨在通过使用目前世界上任何地方可获得的最详细的区域-国家-国际贸易和竞争数据集(以及建立这些数据的人)，详细审查英国退欧对英国行业、地区和城市的可能影响。这两个数据集是由格罗宁根大学和PBL荷兰环境评估机构分别开发的2016年WIOD世界投入产出数据库和2016年英国区域间贸易数据集。WIOD涵盖43个国家、56个部门和15年的贸易-GDP-需求关系，而欧盟区域间表格涵盖59个部门和240个欧盟地区。量化研究将让我们了解全球价值链在塑造英国地区贸易行为中所扮演的角色，即商品和服务多次跨越国界，最终被家庭和企业消费。英国通过这样的全球价值链与欧盟其他国家深度融合，重塑英国退欧后未来与欧盟的贸易安排也将涉及重新配置这些全球价值链。我们的数据使我们能够检查不同贸易情景的影响，并绘制出英国行业和地区对英国退欧后不同情景的敏感度。英国退欧还将重塑英国地区的国家和国际竞争力排名，我们的数据再次允许我们检查可能出现的长期变化。同时，这些变化也将对英国城市和区域发展政策逻辑和设置的设计和治理产生深远影响。然而，欧盟凝聚力基金的撤出，加上英欧贸易关系的变化，意味着当地地区面临的经济和公共政策环境都将发生重大变化。正在进行的英国三个国家行政当局以及英国城市地区层面的权力下放议程将受到不断变化的外部环境的严重影响，我们的项目将确定主要利益相关者认为为适应新现实提供最大可能性的治理、政策和制度选择。因此，我们的定量研究也将与基于关键利益攸关方参与会议的定性研究并行进行。将与城市、区域和国家利益攸关方组织参与性研讨会，以制定英国退欧后的替代情景，供城市、区域和国家机构进行实证分析。定量和定性方法的结合将使我们能够在关键的中观层面--个别部门、个别城市和个别地区--确定英国退欧的影响。

The Economic Impacts of Brexit on the UK, its Sectors, its Cities and its RegionsWhat are the economic impacts of Brexit on the UK's sectors, regions and cities? The findings from our recent research suggest that the UK's cities and regions which voted for Brexit are also the most economically dependent on EU markets for their prosperity and viability. This is a result of their differing sectoral and trade composition. Different impacts are likely for different sectors, and also different impacts are likely between sectors, and these relationships also differ across the country's regions. Some sectors, some regions and some cities will be more sensitive and susceptible to any changes in UK-EU trade relations which may arise from Brexit than others and their long-run competiveness positions will be less robust and more vulnerable than others. This suggests that these sectoral and regional differences need to be very carefully taken into account in the context of the national UK-EU negotiations in order for the post-Brexit agreements to be politically, socially as well as economically sustainable across the country.This project aims to examine in detail the likely impacts of Brexit on the UK's sectors, regions and cities by using the most detailed regional-national-international trade and competition datasets currently available anywhere in the world (and the people who built these data). These two datasets, are the 2016 WIOD World Input-Output Database and the 2016 UK Interregional Trade Datasets developed respectively by the University of Groningen and by the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. WIOD covers 43 countries, 56 sectors and 15 years of trade-GDP-demand relationships, while the EU Interregional Tables covers 59 sectors and 240 EU regions. The quantitative research will allow us to understand the role in shaping UK regional trade behaviour which is played by global value-chains, whereby goods and services crisscross borders multiple times before being finally consumed by household and firms. The UK is heavily integrated with the rest of the EU via such global value-chains and reshaping the future post-Brexit UK trade arrangements with the EU will also involve reconfiguring these global value-chains. Our data allows us to examine the impacts of different trade scenarios and to map out the sensitivity of UK sectors and regions to different post-Brexit scenarios. Brexit will also reshape the national and international competiveness rankings of the UK regions and again our data allows us to examine the likely long run changes which will arise.At the same time, these changes will also all have profound implications for the design and governance of UK city and regional development policy logic and settings. However, the withdrawal of EU Cohesion Funds, alongside changing UK-EU trade relationships means that both the economic and the public policy environment facing local regions will shift significantly. The ongoing UK devolution agenda at the level of both the three devolved national administrations as well as the English city-regions will be heavily affected by the changing external environment and our project will identify the governance, policy and institutional options which key stakeholders perceive to offer the greatest possibilities for adjusting to the new realities. Our quantitative research will therefore also be undertaken in parallel with qualitative research based on key stakeholder engagement sessions. Participatory workshops with city, regional and national stakeholders will be organised in order to develop alternative post-Brexit scenarios for empirical analysis as perceived by the city and regional as well as national institutions. The mix of quantitative and qualitative approaches will allow us to identity the impacts of Brexit at the crucial meso-levels of the individual sectors, the individual cities and the individual regions.