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The Economic Impacts on Brexit on the UK, its Regions, its Cities and its Sectors

英国脱欧对英国及其地区、城市和行业的经济影响

基本信息

批准号：
ES/R00126X/1
负责人：
Raquel ORTEGA ARGILES
金额：
$ 39.17万
依托单位：
University of Birmingham
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2017
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2017 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FR00126X%2F1
关键词：
Economic Impacts Brexit UK its

项目摘要

The Economic Impacts of Brexit on the UK, its Sectors, its Cities and its RegionsWhat are the economic impacts of Brexit on the UK's sectors, regions and cities? The findings from our recent research suggest that the UK's cities and regions which voted for Brexit are also the most economically dependent on EU markets for their prosperity and viability. This is a result of their differing sectoral and trade composition. Different impacts are likely for different sectors, and also different impacts are likely between sectors, and these relationships also differ across the country's regions. Some sectors, some regions and some cities will be more sensitive and susceptible to any changes in UK-EU trade relations which may arise from Brexit than others and their long-run competiveness positions will be less robust and more vulnerable than others. This suggests that these sectoral and regional differences need to be very carefully taken into account in the context of the national UK-EU negotiations in order for the post-Brexit agreements to be politically, socially as well as economically sustainable across the country.This project aims to examine in detail the likely impacts of Brexit on the UK's sectors, regions and cities by using the most detailed regional-national-international trade and competition datasets currently available anywhere in the world (and the people who built these data). These two datasets, are the 2016 WIOD World Input-Output Database and the 2016 UK Interregional Trade Datasets developed respectively by the University of Groningen and by the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. WIOD covers 43 countries, 56 sectors and 15 years of trade-GDP-demand relationships, while the EU Interregional Tables covers 59 sectors and 240 EU regions. The quantitative research will allow us to understand the role in shaping UK regional trade behaviour which is played by global value-chains, whereby goods and services crisscross borders multiple times before being finally consumed by household and firms. The UK is heavily integrated with the rest of the EU via such global value-chains and reshaping the future post-Brexit UK trade arrangements with the EU will also involve reconfiguring these global value-chains. Our data allows us to examine the impacts of different trade scenarios and to map out the sensitivity of UK sectors and regions to different post-Brexit scenarios. Brexit will also reshape the national and international competiveness rankings of the UK regions and again our data allows us to examine the likely long run changes which will arise.At the same time, these changes will also all have profound implications for the design and governance of UK city and regional development policy logic and settings. However, the withdrawal of EU Cohesion Funds, alongside changing UK-EU trade relationships means that both the economic and the public policy environment facing local regions will shift significantly. The ongoing UK devolution agenda at the level of both the three devolved national administrations as well as the English city-regions will be heavily affected by the changing external environment and our project will identify the governance, policy and institutional options which key stakeholders perceive to offer the greatest possibilities for adjusting to the new realities. Our quantitative research will therefore also be undertaken in parallel with qualitative research based on key stakeholder engagement sessions. Participatory workshops with city, regional and national stakeholders will be organised in order to develop alternative post-Brexit scenarios for empirical analysis as perceived by the city and regional as well as national institutions. The mix of quantitative and qualitative approaches will allow us to identity the impacts of Brexit at the crucial meso-levels of the individual sectors, the individual cities and the individual regions.

英国脱欧对英国及其部门、城市和地区的经济影响英国脱欧对英国的部门、地区和城市的经济影响是什么？我们最近的研究结果表明，投票支持英国脱欧的城市和地区也是经济上最依赖欧盟市场的繁荣和可行性。这是由于它们的部门和贸易构成不同造成的。不同部门可能受到不同的影响，不同部门之间也可能受到不同的影响，这些关系在全国各地区也各不相同。某些行业、某些地区和某些城市将比其他行业更敏感，更容易受到英国脱欧可能导致的英国-欧盟贸易关系变化的影响，其长期竞争力将不如其他行业那么强劲，更容易受到影响。这表明，在英国-欧盟国家谈判的背景下，需要非常仔细地考虑这些部门和地区差异，以便英国脱欧后的协议在全国范围内具有政治，社会和经济可持续性。本项目旨在详细研究英国脱欧对英国各部门可能产生的影响，通过使用目前世界上任何地方可获得的最详细的区域-国家-国际贸易和竞争数据集（以及建立这些数据的人），对区域和城市进行评估。这两个数据集分别是2016年WIOD世界投入产出数据库和2016年英国区域间贸易数据集，分别由格罗宁根大学和PBL荷兰环境评估局开发。WIOD涵盖43个国家、56个部门和15年的贸易-国内生产总值-需求关系，而欧盟区域间表涵盖59个部门和240个欧盟区域。定量研究将使我们能够了解全球价值链在塑造英国区域贸易行为方面的作用，即商品和服务在最终被家庭和公司消费之前多次跨境。英国通过这些全球价值链与欧盟其他国家高度融合，重塑未来英国脱欧后与欧盟的贸易安排也将涉及重新配置这些全球价值链。我们的数据使我们能够研究不同贸易情景的影响，并绘制出英国行业和地区对不同脱欧后情景的敏感度。英国脱欧也将重塑英国地区的国家和国际竞争力排名，我们的数据再次让我们能够研究可能出现的长期变化。同时，这些变化也将对英国城市和区域发展政策逻辑和设置的设计和治理产生深远的影响。然而，欧盟凝聚力基金的退出以及英国与欧盟贸易关系的变化意味着当地地区面临的经济和公共政策环境将发生重大变化。英国在三个权力下放的国家行政部门以及英国城市地区层面正在进行的权力下放议程将受到不断变化的外部环境的严重影响，我们的项目将确定主要利益相关者认为提供最大可能性的治理，政策和体制选择，以适应新的现实。因此，我们的定量研究也将与基于关键利益相关者参与会议的定性研究同时进行。将组织与城市，区域和国家利益相关者的研讨会，以制定城市，区域和国家机构所认为的经验分析的替代后Brexit情景。定量和定性方法的结合将使我们能够识别英国脱欧对各个行业、各个城市和各个地区的关键中观层面的影响。