Debating driverless futures: Anticipatory governance and responsible innovation for self-driving cars

讨论无人驾驶的未来：自动驾驶汽车的预期治理和负责任的创新

• 批准号: ES/S001832/1
• 负责人: Jack Stilgoe
• 金额: $ 63.72万
• 依托单位: University College London
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2019 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FS001832%2F1
• 关键词: Debating; driverless; futures; Anticipatory; governance

In the middle of the afternoon on May 7th, 2016, near Williston, Florida, Joshua Brown joined the long list of fatalities on the world's roads. However, his death was different. He was his car's only occupant but, as far as we know, he was not driving. His car was in 'Autopilot' mode. The technology in his Tesla Model S that was designed to keep him safe failed to see a white truck that was crossing his carriageway against the bright white sky behind it. Brown's Tesla hit the trailer at 74mph, after which it left the road and hit a post. Had the car veered left instead of right, crossing onto the opposite carriageway, the world's first fatal self-driving car crash could have caused a higher death toll and even greater controversy.Self-driving cars promise to be one of the most disruptive technologies of the early 21st Century. Enthusiasts for the technology think that it could solve problems such as access to transport for disabled people, traffic jams and hundreds of thousands of deaths on the road each year, most of which are cause by human error. Some companies say they will sell self-driving cars as early as 2018. Governments in the UK and elsewhere see huge potential in securing economic growth and new high-tech jobs for their populations. The UK's Industrial Strategy has prioritised self-driving cars and increased investment in the machine learning technologies that will allow computers to replace humans behind the wheel. Morgan Stanley, an investment bank, forecasts a multi-trillion dollar global market with billions of extra dollars in productivity gains in a 'New Auto Industry Paradigm'. The consultancy firm KPMG calls self-driving cars 'The Next Revolution'.The typical approach to a new technology is for society to understand its effects only in hindsight. For self-driving cars, this would be a bad idea. Policymakers, innovators and the public risk sleepwalking into a future in which technology worsens inequality and loses public trust. The history of the car in the 20th Century shows us that, while technologies can have enormous benefits, they can also cause harm and lock society into new ways of living that then prove hard to change. For self-driving cars, the question is whether we can develop a more alert approach to the technology as it is emerging, before it becomes part of our everyday lives. Rather than innovation being 'driverless', we should look for ways in which innovators and policymakers can take responsibility for the futures they help create.To maximise the public benefits of self-driving cars, we should scrutinise innovations and policies that are currently underway. The engineering of our future transport systems is too important to be left to engineers alone. There is a need for democratic discussion of the opportunities and uncertainties of self-driving cars. Rather than guessing at the hopes and fears of consumers and citizens, we should instead ask people what they really think. In 2017, the House of Lords science and technology committee concluded, "There is a clear need for further Government-commissioned social and economic research to weigh the potential human and financial implications of CAV (Connected and Autonomous Vehicles)." But, while investment in self-driving cars currently totals around $80 billion, there is almost no social science exploring public views about what self-driving cars could mean for the future of transport. This proposal is for the world's first major social science project to bring the public voice into the debate on the future of self-driving cars.

2016年5月7日下午，在佛罗里达威利斯顿附近，约书亚布朗加入了世界道路上的死亡名单。但他的死却不同。他是车上唯一的乘客，但据我们所知，他没有开车。他的汽车处于“自动驾驶”模式。他的特斯拉S型车的技术是为了保证他的安全而设计的，但他没有看到一辆白色卡车在明亮的白色天空下穿过他的车道。布朗的特斯拉以每小时74英里的速度撞上了拖车，之后它离开了道路，撞上了一根柱子。如果这辆车向左而不是向右转弯，驶入对面的车道，这起世界上第一起致命的自动驾驶汽车碰撞事故可能会造成更高的死亡人数，甚至引发更大的争议。自动驾驶汽车有望成为21世纪世纪初最具颠覆性的技术之一。这项技术的爱好者认为，它可以解决残疾人使用交通工具、交通堵塞和每年数十万人在道路上死亡等问题，其中大部分是人为错误造成的。一些公司表示，他们最早将在2018年销售自动驾驶汽车。英国和其他地方的政府看到了为本国人民确保经济增长和新的高科技工作岗位的巨大潜力。英国的工业战略优先考虑自动驾驶汽车，并增加了对机器学习技术的投资，这将使计算机能够取代驾驶员。投资银行摩根士丹利预测，在一个“新的汽车工业模式”中，全球市场将有数万亿美元的生产力提高。咨询公司毕马威（KPMG）将自动驾驶汽车称为“下一次革命”。社会对一项新技术的典型态度是事后才理解其影响。对于自动驾驶汽车来说，这将是一个坏主意。政策制定者、创新者和公众可能会梦游到一个未来，在这个未来，技术会加剧不平等，失去公众的信任。世纪的汽车历史告诉我们，虽然技术可以带来巨大的好处，但它们也可能造成伤害，并将社会锁定在新的生活方式上，然后证明很难改变。对于自动驾驶汽车来说，问题是我们是否可以在它成为我们日常生活的一部分之前，在技术出现时开发一种更警觉的方法。我们不应该让创新“无人驾驶”，而应该寻找创新者和政策制定者能够为他们帮助创造的未来承担责任的方法。为了最大限度地提高自动驾驶汽车的公共利益，我们应该仔细审查目前正在进行的创新和政策。我们未来交通系统的工程太重要了，不能只交给工程师。有必要对自动驾驶汽车的机遇和不确定性进行民主讨论。我们不应该猜测消费者和公民的希望和恐惧，而应该问问他们的真实想法。2017年，英国上议院科学和技术委员会得出结论：“显然需要进一步开展政府委托的社会和经济研究，以权衡CAV（联网和自动驾驶汽车）对人力和财政的潜在影响。“但是，尽管目前对自动驾驶汽车的投资总额约为800亿美元，但几乎没有社会科学探讨公众对自动驾驶汽车对未来交通的意义。这是世界上第一个将公众声音带入关于自动驾驶汽车未来辩论的重大社会科学项目。

项目成果

A constructive role for social science in the development of automated vehicles

• DOI: 10.1016/j.trip.2020.100133
• 发表时间: 2020-07-01
• 期刊: TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH INTERDISCIPLINARY PERSPECTIVES
• 作者: Cohen, Tom;Stilgoe, Jack;Wigley, Edward
• 通讯作者: Wigley, Edward

Technological advances relevant to transport - understanding what drives them

• DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2020.03.002
• 发表时间: 2020-05-01
• 期刊: TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART A-POLICY AND PRACTICE
• 影响因子: 6.4
• 作者: Cohen, Tom;Jones, Peter
• 通讯作者: Jones, Peter

Governing AI safety through independent audits

• DOI: 10.1038/s42256-021-00370-7
• 发表时间: 2021-07-01
• 期刊: NATURE MACHINE INTELLIGENCE
• 影响因子: 23.8
• 作者: Falco, Gregory;Shneiderman, Ben;Yeong, Zee Kin
• 通讯作者: Yeong, Zee Kin

The social perspective on policy towards local shared autonomous vehicle services (LSAVS)

• DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2020.05.013
• 发表时间: 2020-05
• 期刊: Transport Policy
• 影响因子: 6.8
• 作者: D. Paddeu;Ian Shergold;G. Parkhurst

Policy Implications of Autonomous Vehicles

自动驾驶汽车的政策影响

• DOI: 10.1016/bs.atpp.2020.01.001
• 发表时间: 2020
• 作者: Mladenovic M