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The Distributional Effects of Prices

价格的分配效应

基本信息

批准号：
ES/S005862/1
负责人：
Xavier Jaravel
金额：
$ 30.95万
依托单位：
London School of Economics and Political Science
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2019
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2019 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FS005862%2F1
关键词：
Distributional Effects Prices

项目摘要

This project asks two questions: (1) What are the implications of prices changes for inequality and standards of living? (2) To what extent do the price effects induced by policies alter the cost-benefit analysis of these policies? Despite extensive research, we currently lack detailed data as well as various empirical and theoretical tools to appropriately answer these questions. These questions are fundamental because it is well-known that individuals across the income distribution purchase different baskets of goods and services. Therefore, changes in prices or product availability over time can potentially have an important impact on inequality. Likewise, differences in prices across countries can have a profound impact on standards of living across countries. The few studies that have investigated these questions have used "macro" data (at a high level of aggregation), but I have shown in previous work (Jaravel 2017) that it is crucial to use "micro" data (i.e. very disaggregated data, at the product level) to accurately answer these questions.We know that policies may have large price effects (see Jaravel 2018 on the price effects of food stamps). For instance, increasing import tariffs is likely to result in higher prices for domestic consumers (which I have started investigating in ongoing work: Borusyak and Jaravel 2017 and Jaravel and Sager 2018). But we do not have a good understanding of how large this effect might be. Likewise, other important policies like income redistribution schemes or monetary policy could have significant effects on prices, which are not well understood currently. There are two main challenges to answer the two fundamental questions asked in this project. First, it is not easy to properly measure how prices change over time and across countries, because the set of available goods and services is always changing and detailed micro data is required. Second, it is challenging to understand the impact of policies on prices because of feedback loops. For instance, if a given policy makes a particular group of individuals richer, they might change their consumption patterns and start buying a different set of goods or services, which may have an impact on the income of other agents, who in turn will change their consumption patterns, etc.In this project, I propose to proceed in two steps, tackling each of these two major challenges in turn to advance our understanding of the effects of price changes and of their implications for major policies. The first part of the project aims at addressing three fundamental limitations in the literature on the measurement of "quality-adjusted" price changes (building on Jaravel 2017): (i) limited availability of scanner data across countries; (ii) limited use of hedonic regressions; and (iii) limited understanding of the welfare impact of house prices changes. Using new models and new empirical tools, the second part of the project aims at shedding new light on the welfare impact of three important types of policies, given their price effects: (i) optimal income and commodity taxation; (ii) trade policy (building on Borusyak and Jaravel 2017 and Jaravel and Sager 2018); and (iii) monetary policy.The various parts of this project constitute a cohesive whole. Taking a multi-faceted approach is the only way of making significant progress on understanding the effects of prices and their policy implications.This project has a strong potential for impact. In particular, it could change the type of inflation statistics published by national government agencies, as well as the type of standards-of-living statistics across countries published by international organisations. To ensure that the new data and new findings from the project are easily accessible by other researchers, policymakers, think tanks, as well as by the general public, the results and data will be made available online on a dedicated, user-friendly website.

这个项目提出了两个问题：（1）价格变化对不平等和生活水平的影响是什么？(2)政策引起的价格效应在多大程度上改变了这些政策的成本效益分析？尽管进行了广泛的研究，但我们目前缺乏详细的数据以及各种经验和理论工具来适当回答这些问题。这些问题是根本性的，因为众所周知，收入分配中的个人购买不同的商品和服务。因此，随着时间的推移，价格或产品供应的变化可能对不平等产生重要影响。同样，各国之间的价格差异也会对各国的生活水平产生深远影响。对这些问题进行调查的少数研究使用了“宏观”数据（在高水平的聚合），但我已经在以前的工作（Jaravel 2017）中表明，使用“微观”数据（即产品层面的非常细分的数据）来准确回答这些问题至关重要。我们知道政策可能会产生很大的价格效应（参见Jaravel 2018关于食品券的价格效应）。例如，提高进口关税可能会导致国内消费者的价格上涨（我已经开始在正在进行的工作中进行研究：Borusyak和Jaravel 2017以及Jaravel和Sager 2018）。但我们并不清楚这种影响有多大。同样，收入再分配计划或货币政策等其他重要政策也可能对价格产生重大影响，但目前还不清楚。要回答本项目中提出的两个基本问题，有两个主要挑战。首先，要正确衡量价格随时间和国家的变化并不容易，因为现有的商品和服务总是在变化，需要详细的微观数据。其次，由于反馈循环，理解政策对价格的影响是一项挑战。例如，如果一个特定的政策使一个特定的群体的个人更富有，他们可能会改变他们的消费模式，并开始购买一套不同的商品或服务，这可能会对其他代理人的收入产生影响，反过来又会改变他们的消费模式，等等。在这个项目中，我建议分两步进行，逐一处理这两项主要挑战，可加深我们对价格变动的影响及其对重大政策的影响的认识。该项目的第一部分旨在解决文献中关于衡量“质量调整”价格变化的三个基本限制（以Jaravel 2017为基础）：（i）各国扫描数据的可用性有限;（ii）享乐回归的使用有限;（iii）对房价变化的福利影响的理解有限。本项目的第二部分使用新的模型和新的实证工具，旨在从价格效应的角度，对三种重要政策的福利影响进行新的阐释：（i）最优收入和商品税收;（ii）贸易政策（基于Borusyak和Jaravel 2017以及Jaravel和Sager 2018）;（iii）货币政策。本项目的各个部分构成了一个有凝聚力的整体。采取多方面的方法是在理解价格的影响及其政策含义方面取得重大进展的唯一途径。特别是，它可能会改变国家政府机构发布的通胀统计数据类型，以及国际组织发布的各国生活标准统计数据类型。为了确保其他研究人员、决策者、智囊团以及公众能够方便地获取该项目的新数据和新结论，将在一个方便用户的专门网站上提供结果和数据。