Effects of Spirits Privatization on Alcohol Prices and Alcohol-related Harms

描述（由申请人提供）：华盛顿州选民通过了第1183号提案，该提案自2012年6月1日起结束了该州对烈酒销售的垄断，并取消了一些与分销和定价相关的规定。烈酒生产商将被允许直接向零售商销售，而无需经过批发环节。新的州烈酒税将是美国各州中最高的，旨在弥补烈酒垄断带来的巨额收入损失。由于这些税将加在分销商和零售商的利润之上，我们预计烈酒价格将远高于目前的水平。重要的是，该倡议要求将零售税与基本价格分开列出，以便消费者可以清楚地看到税额。商业支持者的意图很可能是为了激发后来减少烈酒税的努力，使未来的收入变得不确定。尽管最低规模要求将被许可人限制在大型酒精超市、超市和其他大型商店类型，但随着销售时间的延长和购物便利程度的提高，烈性酒的出口密度预计将大幅增加。尽管价格会上涨，但这种供应的增加可能会导致烈性酒销量的增加，因为这发生在加拿大各省的两次零售私有化之后，这也导致了私人商店的零售价格上涨。拟议的研究旨在评估随着时间的推移，这些税收和可用性的增加以及税收减少等潜在的未来变化的影响。我们建议跟踪法规、收入和价格的实施情况，并对华盛顿饮酒者和居民进行具有州代表性的横断面和纵向调查，以评估私有化后以及后来的变化在饮酒、购买、问题、态度和经验方面的变化。这项纵向调查将跟踪烈酒饮用者，以评估个体饮酒者在详细购买和消费行为方面的变化。横断面调查将每六个月进行一次，以便对3年内发生的初始和任何税收和市场结构变化进行回顾性的前后分析。回顾性问题将评估私有化前的饮酒和购买行为，便于分析变化。疾控中心在私有化前后进行的代表性横断面调查也将用于评价青年和成人饮酒模式的变化。从控制系统和超市私有化后的品牌级价格和销售系列将使用档案数据源获得。其他类型的商店将通过互联网和商店访问进行监测。分析将确定私有化和后来对价格、销售、国家收入、饮酒和购买模式、与酒精有关的危害的经历（包括他人饮酒的感知危害）以及对酒精政策、烈酒供应和价格的意见的影响。结果将为关于政府控制酒精销售的辩论提供信息，这涉及到剩下的18个管制州，以及关于三层制度和酒精税的辩论涉及到美国所有州。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Voters in the state of Washington have approved Initiative 1183, which ends the state monopoly on spirits sales as of June 1, 2012 and removes a number of regulations related to distribution and pricing. Spirits producers will be allowed to sell directly to retailers, bypassing the wholesale tier. New state spirits taxes, designed to make up the significant lost revenues from the spirits monopoly, will be the highest in the US states. Because these taxes will now go on top of profits to distributors and retailers, we expect spirits prices to rise to well above current levels. Importantly, the initiative requires retail taxes to b listed separately from the base price so that consumers can clearly see the tax amount. Commercial proponents likely intended this to spark later efforts to reduce spirits taxes, making future revenues uncertain. Despite a minimum size requirement that will limit licensees to large alcohol super-stores, supermarkets and other large store types, outlet density for spirits is expected to increase substantially along with later hours of sale and greater shopping convenience. This availability increase may lead to greater spirits sales even though prices will increase, as this occurred after two retail privatizations in Canadian provinces that also resulted in higher retail prices in private stores. The proposed study was designed to evaluate impacts over time of these tax and availability increases and potential future changes such as a tax reduction. We propose to track implementation of regulations, revenues and prices and use state-representative cross- sectional and longitudinal surveys of Washington drinkers and residents to evaluate changes in drinking, purchasing, problems, attitudes and experiences following privatization and across later changes. The longitudinal survey will follow spirits drinkers to assess individual drinkers' changes in detailed purchasing and consumption behaviors. Cross-sectional survey waves will be conducted every six months to allow retrospective pre-and multiple-post analyses capturing both initial and any tax and market structural shifts occurring within 3 years. Retrospective questions will assess drinking and purchasing behavior before the privatization, facilitating analysis of change. Representative surveys from the CDC with cross-sectional waves both before and after privatization will also be utilized to evaluate changes in youth and adult drinking patterns. Brand-level price and sales series from the control system and from supermarkets after privatization will be obtained using archival data sources. Other store types will be monitored through the internet and store visits. Analyses will determine the effects of the privatization and later changes on prices, sales, state revenues, drinking and purchasing patterns, experiences of alcohol-related harms (including perceived harms from other people's drinking) and opinions regarding alcohol policies, spirits availability and prices. Results will inform debates regarding government control of alcohol sales, relevant to 18 remaining control states and on the three-tier system and alcohol taxation relevant to all US states.