Theoretical Sampling Design Options for a New Birth Cohort

2017年纵向研究战略回顾（Davis-Kean, Chambers, Davidson, Kleinert， Ren和Tang， 2018年）提出了一系列关于创新方法的建议，以加强和投资英国纵向研究的机会。对ESRC的主要建议之一是委托一个新的出生队列加速纵向设计。加速纵向设计同时涉及多个队列，每个队列从不同的年龄开始，然后随着时间的推移遵循“套件”对齐队列分组。在本提案中，我们研究了英国一组从出生后不久开始的个体和从童年开始的第二个或多个队列的高层次设计方案和加速纵向设计的可行性，每个队列随着时间的推移，至少到18岁。《2017年纵向研究战略回顾》提到了“关键年龄段（待定）”。鉴于从实际上并不存在的“行政脊梁”中抽样的目的，我们可以假设一个年龄点为0，例如从出生登记中。儿童的另一个主要行政来源是学校人口普查，将5岁（义务教育的开始）作为额外的年龄点是很自然的。第三个年龄点可能是16岁（义务教育结束）。我们注意到，由于缺乏采样框架，在怀孕期间跟踪队列可能会有问题。更具体地说，我们研究了加速纵向设计与传统单一队列的理论方面：统计能力和估计精度，以便能够检查关键研究问题；在联合王国国家和区域一级以及脆弱亚群体中考虑地理方面和足够的样本量（包括加强抽样）；多队列统计分析；跨队列和跨扫描测量的可比性；缺少数据和人员流失。

The 2017 Longitudinal Studies Strategic Review (Davis-Kean, Chambers, Davidson, Kleinert, Ren and Tang, 2018) made a series of recommendations on innovative ways to enhance and to invest in opportunities for longitudinal research in the UK. One of the key recommendations to the ESRC was to commission a new birth cohort with an accelerated longitudinal design. The accelerated longitudinal design engages multiple cohorts simultaneously, each one starting at a different age and then following a 'suite' of aligned cohort groupings over time. In this proposal we investigate high-level design options and feasibility for an accelerated longitudinal design in the UK for a cohort of individuals starting soon after birth and a second or multiple cohorts starting in childhood and following each one over time, at least to age 18. The 2017 Longitudinal Studies Strategic Review mentions 'pivotal age periods (to be determined)'. Given the aim of sampling from an 'administrative spine' which in practice does not exist, we can assume that one age point would be 0, e.g. from the registry of births. Another key administrative source for children is the School Census and it is natural to take the age of 5 (the start of compulsory schooling) as an additional age point. A third age point could be the age of 16 (the end of compulsory schooling). We note that the issue of following a cohort during pregnancy may be problematic due to a lack of a sampling frame. More specifically, we investigate theoretical aspects of an accelerated longitudinal design versus a traditional single cohort with respect to: statistical power and precision of estimates to be able to examine key research questions; consideration of geographical aspects and adequate sample sizes at the UK national and regional level and in vulnerable subgroups (including booster sampling); statistical analysis under multiple cohorts; comparability of measures across cohorts and across sweeps; missing data and attrition.