Supporting transformative adaptation and building equitable resilience to drought for sustainable development

实现可持续农业转型是国际政策发展的优先事项。种植用于出口的高价值作物已被证明对生产区产生了实质性的积极的社会经济影响。该行业支持小农和外包农，并为初级生产、包装和分销部门的大量人员(特别是妇女)提供有保障的就业和收入，从而带来更高和更稳定的收入，对工人的健康标准产生积极影响，同时改善营养、获得适当食物和教育的机会，同时还提供更大的就业保障。小农农业生产的增加也被证明会产生积极的福利效应，并对当地生计产生直接和间接的影响。许多低收入和中等收入国家的有利气候和土壤为扩大出口园艺部门提供了机会，以满足全球对水果和蔬菜的需求，以支持健康饮食。小岛屿发展中国家的大多数出口园艺生产都是灌溉的，而且越来越多地转移到更干旱的地区，并使用从河流、大坝和含水层中抽取的水，这些水本来可以用于支持自然栖息地和环境流动，支持小农农业和城市发展，以及用于水电和工业。当集水区内或含水层对水的需求(来自所有部门，包括环境)超过现有供应量(水文干旱)时，由于电力不平等，对所有部门的影响并不均等。例如，赋予商业园艺部门的经济和政治权力可能确保优先于供水；出口产品的合同义务可能会降低当地市场的供应和质量并提高价格；当产量下降时，园艺部门的低技能工人可能会被解雇。因此，对贫困和边缘化社区的影响加剧。虽然干旱是一种自然现象，但由于气候变化和水需求的增加，特别是对家庭用水和卫生设施的需求增加，干旱的频率和程度正在增加，出口园艺将进一步加剧贫困和边缘化社区的脆弱性。许多中小中等收入国家面临的挑战是，如何支持扩大出口园艺部门，以实现发展目标，同时在气候变异性增加的背景下，提高贫困和边缘化社区抵御干旱和与水有关的风险的能力。根据案例研究流域的经验，该项目提出的问题是，如何以社会和环境公平的方式实现两个发展目标：a)提高贫困和边缘化社区对干旱和水相关风险的适应能力，b)扩大缺水流域的商业园艺生产？拟议的研究基于南非(SA)和肯尼亚(KE)的四个案例研究流域：布雷德古里兹河(西开普省)、格鲁特莱塔巴河(林波波河)、埃瓦索尼罗河上游(肯尼亚山，KE)和奈瓦沙湖(纳库鲁，KE)。这些都是有大量农村贫困人口的集水区，受到最近干旱事件的影响，拥有重要的出口园艺产业，包括战略水源地。

Achieving sustainable agricultural transformation is an international policy development priority. Growing high-value crops for export has been shown to generate substantive positive socio-economic impacts for the producing regions. The industry supports small-scale farmers and out-growers and provides secure employment and incomes for large numbers of people (especially women) in the primary production, packing and distribution sectors leading to higher and more stable revenues and positive impacts on the standard of workers' health, though better nutrition, access to appropriate food and education, whilst also providing greater job security. Increased smallholder agricultural production has also been shown to generate positive welfare effects and result in direct, as well as indirect, impacts on local livelihoods. The favourable climate and soils of many low and middle income countries (LMICs) opens opportunities to expand the export horticulture sector to meet the global demand for fruits and vegetables to support healthy diets. Most export horticultural production in LMICs is irrigated and is increasingly moving into more arid areas and using water drawn from rivers, dams and aquifers that would otherwise be available for supporting natural habitats and environmental flows, underpinning smallholder agriculture and urban development, and for hydropower and industry. When the demand for water (from all sectors, including the environment) within a catchment, or from an aquifer, exceeds the available supply (hydrological drought) the impacts do not fall equally on all sectors due to power inequalities. For example, the economic and political power vested in the commercial horticultural sector may secure priority over water supplies; contractual obligations for produce for export may reduce availability and quality and increase prices in local markets; and low skilled workers in the horticultural sector may be laid-off when production falls. Thus the impacts on the poor and marginalised communities are exacerbated. Whilst drought is a natural occurrence, its frequency and magnitude are increasing due to climate change and increased water demand, particularly for domestic water and sanitation, and export horticulture will further exacerbate the vulnerability of poor and marginalised communities. The challenge faced by many LMICs, has been how to support the expansion of the export horticultural sector to meet development objectives whilst increasing the resilience of poor and marginalised communities to drought and water-related risks, in the context of increasing climate variability. Based on experience in case-study catchments, this project asks, 'how can the twin development objectives of a) increasing the resilience of poor and marginalised communities to drought and water related risks, and b) expanding commercial horticultural production in water-stressed catchments, be met in a socially and environmentally equitable manner?' The proposed study is based on four case-study catchments in South Africa (SA) and Kenya (KE); The Breede Gouritz (Western Cape, SA), The Groot Letaba (Limpopo, SA), The upper Ewaso Ng'iro (Mount Kenya, KE), and Lake Naivasha (Nakuru, KE). These are all catchments with significant populations of rural poor that have been impacted by recent drought events; have important export horticulture industries; and include strategic water source areas.