Changing Lanes? Brexit and UK Automotive: Impacts and implications for corporate strategies and industrial policy.

该奖学金旨在探讨英国脱欧对制造业和英国汽车行业（以下简称“英国汽车”）的影响，对汽车组装商和供应商应对英国脱欧的企业战略的影响，以及对英国国家和地方政策的影响。人们对英国汽车很感兴趣，因为直到最近，英国汽车一直被视为英国经济的“明星”。该行业的成功至关重要的是，英国是欧盟单一市场的一部分，跨国汽车组装商在英国进行了大量外国投资，以进入并服务于单一市场。此外，英国汽车被认为受益于英国的欧盟成员国身份，通过欧盟削减国际贸易协议，在英国影响影响英国汽车的欧盟法规，以及获得技术工人以及欧洲研究资金和网络。在英国脱欧之后，这些因素需要公司重新评估，并根据英国脱欧的形式，开辟研究领域，这是本奖学金的重点。由于汽车组装商和供应商推迟了投资决定，等待英国退欧的形式以及英国与欧盟未来贸易关系的澄清，英国汽车行业的投资最近明显下降。即使议会支持脱欧协议，过渡期也只能在短期内澄清贸易问题；从长远来看，需要达成一项新的交易安排，这再次给该行业带来了不确定性问题。考虑到该行业融入整个欧洲汽车供应链的性质，该行业也被视为严重受到英国退欧形式的影响。供应链不仅会多次跨越国界，因此在无协议脱欧的情况下可能会受到关税的影响，而且现代准时制（JIT）交付的性质意味着装配商保留有限的库存以降低成本。组件每天在需要时按照需要的顺序在英吉利海峡之间流动。即使是对海关安排的轻微干扰，也可能对供应产生重大影响，从而对在英国运营的汽车装配商的现有商业模式产生重大影响。考虑到关税和海关延误，英国汽车行业将无协议脱欧的情况视为一种“生存威胁”。其他形式的英国脱欧会产生不同的影响，这取决于引入的关税和非关税壁垒的程度、获得技能的渠道等等。为了更好地理解这些潜在影响，该奖学金将首先对英国脱欧对贸易、外国直接投资和与英国汽车相关的产出的影响的现有经济研究进行全面总结。这份现有研究的摘要还将包括由于改组而缩小工厂规模和关闭工厂可能产生的影响，以及应对经济冲击的政策选择。新的研究将在此总结的基础上，扩展我们对英国脱欧对英国汽车在以下关键领域的影响的理解：1英国脱欧对英国汽车在欧洲和全球供应链中的影响；2英国脱欧对英国汽车的企业和工厂层面的影响；识别和评估企业对英国脱欧的战略反应；随着该行业转向电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车，该行业的技术发生了更广泛的变化。这项新的研究将与现有的工作结合起来，在多个层面上对英国汽车在脱欧下的可能轨迹有更深入的了解。这将包括：主要汽车组装商的工厂级战略；对零部件供应商的影响（使用区域案例研究）；英国汽车在更广泛的欧洲和全球行业中的定位；以及英国脱欧作为该行业的挑战，需要在该行业向新技术的更广泛转变中得到重视。将在国家和地方两级考虑可能的政策问题和影响，包括对工业政策的影响以及短期和长期的地方对策。

The Fellowship aims to explore what Britain's departure for the EU means for manufacturing and the UK automotive sector (hereafter 'UK auto'), for the corporate strategies of auto assemblers and suppliers in dealing with Brexit, and in turn for policy nationally and locally in the UK. There is much interest in UK auto given that it had, until recently, been seen as something of a 'star performer' of the UK economy. Instrumental in the industry's success was, critically, the UK being part of the EU Single Market, with significant foreign investment by multinational auto assemblers in the UK to access and serve the Single Market. Furthermore, UK auto is seen as having benefitted from the UK's EU membership through the EU cutting international trade deals, in the UK influencing EU regulations affecting UK auto, and in accessing skilled workers as well as European research funding and networks. Such factors will need to be re-evaluated by firms in the wake of Brexit, and depending on the form of Brexit, opening up areas for research which are the focus of this fellowship. Investment in UK auto has declined markedly of late as auto assemblers and suppliers postpone investment decisions, awaiting clarification on the form of Brexit and the UK's future trading relationship with the EU. Even if Parliament does support a Brexit Deal, the transition period offers only short term clarification on trading; longer term, a new trading arrangement needs to be agreed, again raising issues of uncertainty for the sector. The industry is also seen as heavily exposed to the form of Brexit given the nature of its integration into automotive supply chains across Europe. Not only do supply chains cross borders many times, so may be affected by tariffs in the event of No-Deal, but the nature of modern Just-in-Time (JIT) delivery means that assemblers keep limited stocks to keep costs down. Components flow across the Channel on a daily basis as they are needed and in the order they are needed. Even minor disruptions to customs arrangements could have a major impact on supplies and hence existing business models for auto assemblers operating in the UK. A No-Deal scenario is seen as an 'existential threat' by the UK auto industry given exposure to tariffs and customs delays. Other forms of Brexit have different repercussions depending on the extent of tariff and non-tariff barriers introduced, access to skills, and so on. In better understanding these potential impacts, the Fellowship will firstly bring together an overall summary of existing economic research on the impact of Brexit on trade, FDI and output relating to UK auto. This summary of existing research will also cover possible impacts of plant downsizing and closures arising from restructuring, and policy options for dealing with economic shocks. New research will build on this summary by extending our understanding of the impacts of Brexit on UK auto in the following key areas: 1 The impact of Brexit on UK automotive within European and Global supply chains;2 Firm and plant level impacts of Brexit on UK auto;3 Identifying and evaluating corporate strategic responses to Brexit;4 Wider technology shifts in the sector as the sector shifts towards electric and autonomous cars.This new research will be brought together with existing work to provide a deeper understanding of the possible trajectories of UK auto under Brexit on a number of levels. This would comprise: plant level strategies for major auto assemblers; implications for component suppliers (using a regional case study); the positioning of UK auto in the wider European and global industry; and how Brexit, as a challenge for the sector, needs to be appreciated within a wider shift in the sector towards new technologies.Possible policy issues and implications will be considered at a national and local level, including implications for industrial policy, and short and longer term local responses.