Manufacturing beyond Brexit, Covid-19 and the War in Ukraine

汽车和航空航天等行业受到了新冠肺炎影响的一系列打击（供应链中断、订单取消、芯片短缺、劳动力短缺等）。除此之外，英国脱欧还会对制造业供应链产生影响，比如在遵守海关和原产地规则、储存货物、转移供应商等方面产生额外成本。乌克兰的战争增加了能源价格，并进一步扰乱了一些零部件的供应（例如汽车线束或用于调节激光蚀刻芯片的氖气），从而增加了行业压力。这种对制造业的影响已经产生了深远的区域性影响(在撰写本文时，伦敦的GDP比新冠疫情前高出1%。西米德兰兹郡的GDP要低10%)。这让“升级”变得更加困难。为了更好地了解这些潜在影响，研究金将研究若干相关问题及其政策含义英国脱欧、新冠肺炎和乌克兰战争对制造业的持续影响是什么？例如，我们在早期研究中发现的一个关键点是，小公司在英国脱欧后的海关和原产地规则文书工作中真的很挣扎，在某些情况下，它们要么停止了出口，要么在荷兰等地的中心储存，这增加了成本；在英国脱欧、新冠肺炎和乌克兰战争的背景下，围绕“回流”制造业存在哪些机会？有哪些障碍可能阻止回流？这是否有助于将一些制造业工作岗位带回英国地区？鉴于欧盟可能会征收“碳边界调整税”，这对英国和欧盟的制造业有何影响？企业可能会如何应对？制造业正在经历“双重转型”，既要实现净零排放，又要拥抱人工智能和自动化等“工业4.0”技术。鉴于汽车行业正在向电动汽车（ev）转型，“公平转型”具体会是什么样子？考虑到《贸易与合作协议》（Trade & Cooperation Agreement）要求，2026年后，在英国或欧盟之间出口的电动汽车的电池必须在英国或欧盟制造，以避免关税，英国退欧的维度尤其重要。英国在打造电动汽车供应链方面做得够不够？这对政府在这四个领域和相关领域（如技能需求，地区层面的产业政策）的政策意味着什么，特别是对政府来说，鉴于政府已经在很大程度上放弃了它的产业战略，（如何）英国“更好地增长”？

Sectors like automotive and aerospace have taken a series of hits from the impacts of Covid-19 (supply chain disruption, cancelled orders, chip shortages, labour shortages etc). These have come on top of the impacts of Brexit on manufacturing supply chains for example through extra costs in terms of complying with customs and rules of origin, in stockpiling goods, in shifting suppliers and so on. And the war in Ukraine has added to industry stress by increasing energy prices and disrupting the supply of some components yet further (such as for the wiring harnesses used in cars or the neon gas used to regulate the lasers etching chips).Such impacts on manufacturing have had a profound regional impact (at the time of writing London's GDP is 1% higher than it was pre-Covid. The West Midlands' GDP is 10% lower). That makes 'levelling up' even tougher.In better understanding these potential impacts, the Fellowship will look at a number of linked issues and their policy implications.1 What are the ongoing impacts of Brexit, Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine on manufacturing? For example, a key point we found in earlier research is that small firms simply really struggle with post-Brexit customs and Rules of Origin paperwork and in some cases have either stopped bothering exporting or stockpile at hubs in say the Netherlands, adding to costs;2 What opportunities exist around 'reshoring' manufacturing and what barriers could prevent this, in the context of Brexit, Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine? Could this help bring back some manufacturing jobs to UK regions?;3 Given that the EU is likely to bring in a 'carbon border adjustment tax' how could this impact on UK and EU manufacturing and how firms might respond?;4 Manufacturing is undergoing a 'twin transition' in terms of the need to reach Net Zero and embrace a mix of 'Industry 4.0' technologies like AI and automation. What could a 'just transition' look like specifically in the auto industry given the ongoing shift to electric vehicles (EVs)? Here the Brexit dimension is especially relevant given the Trade & Cooperation Agreement's requirements for batteries in EVs to be made in the UK or EU after 2026 for electric cars exported between the two to avoid tariffs. Is the UK doing enough to build an electric vehicle supply chain?5 What does this mean for government policy across these four areas and related areas (eg skills needs, regional level industrial policy) especially as the government, And given that the government has largely scrapped its industrial strategy, (how) can the UK 'grow back better'?.