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Unlocking the potential for future India-UK trade and development

释放未来印英贸易和发展的潜力

基本信息

批准号：
ES/T016248/1
负责人：
Ingo Borchert
金额：
$ 42.03万
依托单位：
University of Sussex
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2021
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2021 至无数据
项目状态：
未结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FT016248%2F1
关键词：
Unlocking potential future India UK

项目摘要

This project aims at understanding which factors stimulate or hamper economic relations between the UK and India. Both countries are important markets for each other's exporters and investors, and it is imperative to unlock the full potential of the UK-India partnership. This will not only allow UK firms to perform better in India but, importantly, there can be crucial repercussions on development outcomes in India.First, we will assess in detail the strengths and weaknesses of the system currently governing trade between India and the UK, i.e. the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) of the EU. The GSP allows Indian exporters to trade with the EU (and the UK) on more favourable terms (i.e. lower import tariffs) than what established under the agreements with the World Trade Organisation. The GSP, however, is an imperfect system, because it grants this more favourable treatment in selected sectors and on a temporary basis. Further, the treatment is revoked from countries and sectors that become internationally competitive. Our contribution is to provide the first detailed analysis of how firms respond to the challenges created by the GSP, in particular to episodes of removal of the preferential treatment, which, in the India-UK case, increase the tariffs applied to Indian imports in the UK. We will study how firms adjust their trade activity (entry and exit from exporting, for Indian firms; adjustment of which products are imported from India, for UK firms), how firms' productivity responds to changes in the GSP (Indian firms are expected to become more productive to keep selling to the UK; UK firms are expected to become less productive as they face less competition from India), whether the labour force that Indian firms employ becomes more or less skilled (increased in productivity might require more skilled labour). This analysis will inform policy makers about how to address the challenges brought by the GSP system in the short term.Next, we will evaluate long term options for future UK-India relations, and for this we will assess the effects of the UK and India entering in a Free Trade Agreement (FTA). An FTA will allow the two economies to be more deeply integrated than in the GSP system, it will guarantee the certainty of a long and stable relation to investors and traders, and will reduce the costs to trade with each other (both Indian and UK import tariffs will be reduced). We will simulate the impact of the UK-India FTA for both manufacturing and services sectors: the analysis on services, in particular, will provide important insights for both UK and Indian policy makers, given the relevance of services for both economies. We will make use of a state-of-the-art model created by us and we will assess the impact of the FTA on output, trade and prices. We will take into account several liberalization scenarios, characterized by larger or smaller elimination of both tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade between India and the UK, and we will assess the impact of the UK-India FTA under various Brexit scenarios.The third part of the analysis we will undertake is dedicated at examining the development outcomes of the policy changes examined in the first two part of the project (GSP trade preferences removal and switch from the GSP to an FTA). We will evaluate how the changes in trade brought by these policy changes are reflected in changes in employment and how the latter, in turn, can affect Indian household's income and expenditure (hence poverty rates). We will use detailed Indian household level data for this analysis. Finally, we will investigate the likely reactions and sentiment of Indian policy makers and businesses to the policy changes examined and proposed in this project We will collect information on their views by submitting a list of questions and we will evaluate the likelihood of implementation of the policy changes that would be required to strengthen the UK-India relation

该项目旨在了解哪些因素刺激或阻碍英国和印度之间的经济关系。两国都是对方出口商和投资者的重要市场，必须充分释放英印伙伴关系的潜力。这不仅能让英国企业在印度取得更好的业绩，更重要的是，这将对印度的发展成果产生至关重要的影响。首先，我们将详细评估目前管理印度和英国之间贸易的制度，即欧盟的普遍优惠制（普惠制）的优势和劣势。普惠制允许印度出口商以比与世界贸易组织（WTO）达成的协议更优惠的条件（即更低的进口关税）与欧盟（和英国）进行贸易。然而，普惠制是一个不完善的制度，因为它在选定的部门暂时赠款这种较优惠的待遇。此外，对具有国际竞争力的国家和部门取消这种待遇。我们的贡献是提供了第一个详细的分析，企业如何应对普惠制带来的挑战，特别是取消优惠待遇的事件，在印度-英国的情况下，增加了适用于印度进口的关税。我们将研究企业如何调整其贸易活动（印度公司进入和退出出口;英国公司调整从印度进口的产品），公司的生产率如何对普惠制的变化作出反应（预计印度公司将提高生产率，以继续向英国销售产品;预计英国公司的生产率将下降，因为它们面临来自印度的竞争减少），印度公司雇用的劳动力技能是提高还是降低（生产力的提高可能需要更熟练的劳动力）。这一分析将告知政策制定者如何在短期内应对普惠制带来的挑战。接下来，我们将评估未来英国与印度关系的长期选择，为此，我们将评估英国和印度加入自由贸易协定（FTA）的影响。自由贸易协定将使两个经济体比普惠制体系更深入地融合，它将保证与投资者和贸易商建立长期稳定关系的确定性，并将降低相互贸易的成本（印度和英国的进口关税将降低）。我们将模拟英国-印度自由贸易协定对制造业和服务业的影响：特别是对服务业的分析，将为英国和印度的政策制定者提供重要的见解，因为服务业对两国经济的相关性。我们将利用我们创建的最先进的模型，评估自贸协定对产出、贸易和价格的影响。我们将考虑几种自由化方案，其特点是或多或少地消除印度和英国之间的关税和非关税贸易壁垒，我们将评估英国-印度自由贸易协定在各种英国退欧情景下的影响。我们将进行的分析的第三部分致力于研究项目前两部分所研究的政策变化的发展结果（普惠制贸易优惠的取消和从普惠制向自由贸易协定的转变）。我们将评估这些政策变化带来的贸易变化如何反映在就业变化中，以及后者如何反过来影响印度家庭的收入和支出（因此贫困率）。我们将使用详细的印度家庭层面数据进行此分析。最后，我们将调查印度政策制定者和企业对本项目所研究和提出的政策变化的可能反应和情绪。我们将通过提交问题清单收集有关他们意见的信息，我们将评估实施加强英印关系所需的政策变化的可能性。