Explaining non-state armed groups perpetration of mass atrocity crimes

解释非国家武装团体犯下的大规模暴行罪行

• 批准号: ES/V000292/1
• 负责人: Kaisa Hinkkainen
• 金额: $ 50.95万
• 依托单位: University of York
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2021 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FV000292%2F1
• 关键词: Explaining; non; state; armed; groups

Since 2010, there has been a 'dramatic resurgence' of violent conflict around the world (United Nations, 2018, p. v). As part of this trend, mass atrocity crimes, defined as genocide, war crimes, crimes against humanity, and ethnic cleansing (GWCE), have become 'the new normal' (Human Rights Watch 2018). At this time of writing, the Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect (GCR2P) identifies seven countries that are 'currently' experiencing GWCE, three at 'imminent risk', seven of 'serious concern', and thirteen being 'monitored' because they have experienced GWCE in the recent past (Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect 2019). These crises have seen millions of people killed, tens of thousands raped, and underpin an unprecedented refugee crisis. Although mass violence is not a new phenomenon, non-state armed groups such as Al Qaeda, Islamic State, Boko Haram, Lord's Resistance Army, and Al-Shabaab are increasingly playing a critical role in the perpetration of atrocity crimes leading to key policymakers calling for urgent research on this specific threat (see case for support). Responding to this new reality, the project answers the following primary research question: under what conditions do non-state armed groups perpetrate GWCE? The funding will enable us to develop the first dataset in the world that collects systematic evidence on non-state armed groups perpetrating GWCE, which we call 'correlates of non-state mass atrocities' (CONMA). To do this, we will analyse six countries and three themes. The former refers to the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Iraq, Nigeria, Syria and Somalia. The latter focuses on i) interactions, for example, between the non-state armed group[s] themselves, other actors such as the government, and external actors such as UN peacekeepers, ii) local factors, for instance, geography, economics, population density, as well as natural resources, and iii) group characteristics, such as age, ideology, and external support. The scientific impact develops in three stages. First, the unique dataset 'CONMA' will provide the necessary information to run statistical analysis to explain why, when, and where mass atrocities happen in our six chosen countries. Second, we will develop hypothesis based on our three themes that can be tested through future academic inquiry. Third, the project seeks to drive forward quantitative research into the causes of non-state armed groups perpetrating mass violence. This advance in knowledge will allow us to provide policy recommendations in order to improve international, regional, and national strategies toward mass atrocity prevention with a specific focus on policymakers in the United Nations (UN), the European Union (EU), the United Kingdom (UK), and Africa (the four case study governments and organisations such as the African Union). We will work with three project partners, GCR2P (New York and Geneva), Aegis Trust (Kigali), and Protection Approaches (London), as well as an advisory board consisting of Alex Bellamy, Gyorgy Tatar, Ivan Simonovic, Karen E. Smith, and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch. As part of our impact strategy, we will hold end of project workshops in London, New York, and Kigali. Outputs will include i) publicly available dataset and codebook, ii) six articles in high ranking journals, iii) an Analysis Framework for the United Nations Office on Genocide Prevention and the RtoP, iv) co-created policy reports with each project partner focusing on the UN, the UK, the EU, and African mass atrocity prevention strategies, v) blogposts, vi) infographics, and vii) presentations at conferences and policy-orientated meetings.

自2010年以来，世界各地的暴力冲突“戏剧性地死灰复燃”(联合国，2018年，P.v)。作为这一趋势的一部分，被定义为种族灭绝、战争罪、危害人类罪和种族清洗的大规模暴行罪行已成为“新常态”(人权观察2018年)。在编写本报告时，全球保护责任中心(GCR2P)确定了7个“目前”正在经历全球保护责任的国家，3个处于“迫在眉睫的危险”中，7个处于“严重关切”之中，13个因为最近经历过全球保护责任而被“监测”(2019年全球保护责任中心)。这些危机见证了数百万人被杀，数万人被强奸，并为一场前所未有的难民危机奠定了基础。虽然大规模暴力并不是一个新现象，但非国家武装团体，如基地组织、伊斯兰国、博科圣地、上帝抵抗军和青年党，在实施暴行罪行方面发挥着越来越重要的作用，导致主要政策制定者呼吁对这一具体威胁进行紧急研究(见支持案例)。作为对这一新现实的回应，该项目回答了以下主要研究问题：非国家武装团体在什么条件下实施GWCE？这笔资金将使我们能够开发世界上第一个收集非国家武装团体实施GWCE的系统证据的数据集，我们将其称为“非国家大规模暴行的相关性”(CONMA)。为此，我们将分析六个国家和三个主题。前者指的是中非共和国、刚果民主共和国、伊拉克、尼日利亚、叙利亚和索马里。后者侧重于一、非国家武装组织本身、政府等其他行为者与联合国维和人员等外部行为者之间的互动；二、地理、经济、人口密度、自然资源等本地因素；三、年龄、意识形态、外部支持等群体特征。科学的影响分三个阶段发展。首先，独特的数据集‘CONMA’将提供必要的信息，以便进行统计分析，解释为什么、何时、何地在我们选择的六个国家发生大规模暴行。其次，我们将根据我们的三个主题开发假设，这些主题可以通过未来的学术调查进行检验。第三，该项目寻求推动对非国家武装团体实施大规模暴力的原因进行量化研究。这一知识的进步将使我们能够提供政策建议，以改进国际、区域和国家预防大规模暴行的战略，特别关注联合国(UN)、欧盟(EU)、英国(UK)和非洲(四个案例研究政府和组织，如非洲联盟)的政策制定者。我们将与三个项目合作伙伴合作，GCR2P(纽约和日内瓦)、宙斯盾信托(基加利)和保护方法(伦敦)，以及由Alex Bellamy、Gyorgy Tata、Ivan Simonovic、Karen E.Smith和Kristian Skrede Gleditsch组成的顾问委员会。作为我们影响战略的一部分，我们将在伦敦、纽约和基加利举办项目结束研讨会。产出将包括：i)公开提供的数据集和编码簿；ii)在高级期刊上发表6篇文章；iii)联合国防止灭绝种族罪行办公室和区域防止灭绝种族罪办公室的分析框架；iv)与每个项目伙伴共同创建侧重于联合国、英国、欧盟和非洲防止大规模暴行战略的政策报告；v)博客帖子；vi)信息图表；vii)在各种会议和以政策为导向的会议上发表演讲。