COVID-19: Measuring the effects of Covid-19 on businesses and the UK economy

COVID-19：衡量 Covid-19 对企业和英国经济的影响

• 批准号: ES/V004387/1
• 负责人: Paul Mizen
• 金额: $ 85.05万
• 依托单位: University of Nottingham
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2020 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FV004387%2F1
• 关键词: COVID; 19; Measuring; effects; Covid

This proposal, coordinated by the University of Nottingham under the umbrella of the Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE), offers immediate data collection and research analysis about the impact of Covid-19 on businesses of different sizes, sectors and regions in collaboration with the Bank of England and Office for National Statistics. This real-time information is critical to decision making about the duration and management of the lockdown arrangements in the UK and business performance during the recovery from the Covid-19 episode. Covid-19 is expected to create the largest contraction in UK economic activity in 300 years (real GDP down by 35%, unemployment up by 2 million in 2020Q2, Office for Budget Responsibility). The impacts on supply chains and demand are already affecting economies across the globe more deeply than ever experienced in living memory. HM Treasury and the Bank of England have launched large-scale programmes to support businesses as a bridge in the short-term to reduce unemployment and bankruptcy. Many more tough decisions will be required.We will provide immediate business data for policy decisions and new research so that a balance can be struck between dealing with the medical and the economic costs of Covid-19. We will provide assessments of the costs in terms livelihoods - output, investment and jobs - so that policymakers have the data to form judgements about when to allow the economy to return to normality. Our inputs will be vital for government to understand the implications of these decisions on the UK economy over the next 18 months.

该提案由诺丁汉大学在经济统计卓越中心（ESCOE）的支持下协调，与英国央行和国家统计局合作，提供有关Covid-19对不同规模、行业和地区企业影响的即时数据收集和研究分析。该实时信息对有关英国封城安排的持续时间和管理以及从2019冠状病毒病事件中复苏的业务表现的决策至关重要。预计新冠肺炎将造成英国经济活动300年来最大的收缩（2020年第二季度真实的GDP下降35%，失业人数增加200万，预算责任办公室）。对供应链和需求的影响已经对地球仪的经济产生了前所未有的深刻影响。英国财政部和英格兰银行已经启动了大规模的计划，以支持企业作为短期减少失业和破产的桥梁。我们将为政策决策和新研究提供即时的业务数据，以便在应对新冠肺炎的医疗和经济成本之间取得平衡。我们将提供对生计成本的评估--产出、投资和就业--以便决策者有数据来判断何时让经济恢复正常。我们的投入对于政府了解这些决定在未来18个月对英国经济的影响至关重要。

项目成果

Economic Uncertainty Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic

COVID-19 大流行之前和期间的经济不确定性

• DOI: 10.3386/w27418
• 作者: Altig D

Firming up Price Inflation

物价通胀加剧

• DOI: 10.3386/w30505
• 作者: Bunn P

COVID-19 Uncertainty: A Tale of Two Tails

COVID-19 的不确定性：两条尾巴的故事

• DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3965088
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: SSRN Electronic Journal
• 作者: Bunn P