COVID-19: Measuring the effects of Covid-19 on businesses and the UK economy

这项建议由诺丁汉大学在卓越经济统计中心(ESCOE)的框架下协调，与英格兰银行和国家统计局合作，提供关于新冠肺炎对不同规模、行业和地区的企业影响的即时数据收集和研究分析。这些实时信息对于有关英国封锁安排的持续时间和管理以及从新冠肺炎事件中恢复期间的业务表现的决策至关重要。预计新冠肺炎将导致英国经济活动出现300年来最大幅度的收缩(实际国内生产总值下降35%，2020年第二季度失业人数增加200万人，预算责任办公室)。对供应链和需求的影响已经比人们记忆中经历的任何时候都更深刻地影响着全球各地的经济。英国财政部和英国央行推出了大规模支持企业的计划，以此作为短期内减少失业和破产的桥梁。我们还需要做出更多艰难的决定。我们将为政策决策和新的研究提供即时的商业数据，以便在应对新冠肺炎的医疗成本和经济成本之间取得平衡。我们将提供对生计成本(产出、投资和就业)的评估，以便政策制定者拥有数据，以形成对何时允许经济恢复正常的判断。我们的意见对于政府理解这些决定对未来18个月英国经济的影响至关重要。

This proposal, coordinated by the University of Nottingham under the umbrella of the Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE), offers immediate data collection and research analysis about the impact of Covid-19 on businesses of different sizes, sectors and regions in collaboration with the Bank of England and Office for National Statistics. This real-time information is critical to decision making about the duration and management of the lockdown arrangements in the UK and business performance during the recovery from the Covid-19 episode. Covid-19 is expected to create the largest contraction in UK economic activity in 300 years (real GDP down by 35%, unemployment up by 2 million in 2020Q2, Office for Budget Responsibility). The impacts on supply chains and demand are already affecting economies across the globe more deeply than ever experienced in living memory. HM Treasury and the Bank of England have launched large-scale programmes to support businesses as a bridge in the short-term to reduce unemployment and bankruptcy. Many more tough decisions will be required.We will provide immediate business data for policy decisions and new research so that a balance can be struck between dealing with the medical and the economic costs of Covid-19. We will provide assessments of the costs in terms livelihoods - output, investment and jobs - so that policymakers have the data to form judgements about when to allow the economy to return to normality. Our inputs will be vital for government to understand the implications of these decisions on the UK economy over the next 18 months.