Measuring the Impact of Brexit on UK Investment, Productivity, Sales and Employment

英格兰银行和英国财政部目前正与诺丁汉和斯坦福大学合作，对英国各地的公司进行试点调查，了解他们对未来销售增长、就业、投资、成本和其他结果的预期。这项调查收集了英国企业对英国脱欧冲击影响的预期，比国家统计局目前可用的其他指标更及时，这些指标平均滞后于事件至少3个月。该提案旨在扩大公司小组，以提高数据的代表性，收集3年来来自相同小组参与者的数据（我们预计英国脱欧会带来更多冲击），并允许我们按行业，类型和地区对公司子集进行详细分析。我们正在收集的数据对于立即制定政策，商业决策和英国脱欧谈判是及时和重要的。该项目得到了英国财政部首席经济学家（大卫拉姆斯登爵士）和英国央行首席经济学家（安德鲁·哈尔德）的全力支持，这一事实证明该项目对英国的决策是及时和重要的。这些数据将用于三个目的：A）研究：我们将调查英国脱欧（和其他）冲击的影响，包括不确定性和平均影响。我们拥有每月至少2500家公司的大型调查小组，并将这些数据与Amadeus的年度账户数据、行业和区域数据（例如LFS和Comtrade）以及ONS微观数据进行匹配后，我们将调查一些问题。例如，英国脱欧如何影响投资和招聘，这在不同地区、行业、公司规模、年龄和增长率之间有何不同？这与最初的脱欧热情有何关系？其他政策又如何影响这一点？公司的预期是否与最终结果一致（因为我们会随着时间的推移跟踪这些公司），哪些因素会影响这些预期？公司是否像对高级管理人员的调查中经常看到的那样过于乐观（均值过高）和过于自信（方差过高）？该项目将为这些问题提供重要答案，这些答案将用于产生国际期刊出版物，因为我们在巨大变化期间利用了独特而及时的数据。数据评估的基础将是使用最先进的面板数据方法进行的详细经济分析。B）政策：央行和财政部都在应对英国退欧冲击，对其对英国经济的影响只有有限的指导。高频率（每月）至少有2500家公司的面板将提供数据，我们（和其他人）可以使用这些数据来探索不确定性，经济状况的主观看法以及地区和行业的投资，销售和就业影响。我们将引入专门的问题来评估英国脱欧日期的政策公告，贸易，移民的政策立场以及减轻其影响的措施。C）数据：在之前的项目之后，我们将迅速提供销售，投资，就业和价格情绪的公共指数（例如规模加权平均每月预期变化，以及一些较低频率的区域和行业指数）。这对政策制定者以及试图驾驭英国退欧进程的私营企业来说都非常有用。其次，我们将为商业用户和学术界提供在线匿名微观数据，并为注册用户提供完整的微观数据（保密）。我们对这一点的承诺突出体现在之前的项目中广泛的在线提供，如www.worldmanagementsurvey.com和www.policyuncertainty. com这个项目将提供尖端的结果，无论是在学术分析方面，还是在为英国财政部和英格兰银行等关键政策机构提供的服务方面。这是通过Mizen教授和Bloom教授跨大西洋合作开发的独特数据集以及英格兰银行（Thwaites和Young）的C-Is的专家投入而实现的。

The Bank of England and HM Treasury are currently working with Nottingham and Stanford Universities to run a pilot survey of firms across the UK on their expectations for future growth of sales, employment, investment, costs and other outcomes. This survey collects expectations from UK firms about the impact of Brexit shocks in a more timely way than other currently available indicators from the ONS, which lag behind events on average by at least 3 months. This proposal seeks to enlarge the panel of firms to allow for greater representativeness of the data, collection of data from the same panel participants over 3 years (we expect further Brexit shocks) and to allow us to conduct detailed analysis of subset of firms by industry, type and region. The data we are collecting is timely and important for immediate policymaking, business decisions and Brexit negotiations. The fact that this project has the full support of the Chief Economists of HM Treasury (Sir David Ramsden) and the Bank (Andrew Haldane) is evidence that the project is timely and important for UK decision making.This data would be used for three purposes:A) Research: We would investigate the impact of the Brexit (and other) shocks, in terms of both uncertainty but also mean impacts. Armed with our large panel of at least 2500 firms per month, and after matching this data into annual accounts data from Amadeus, industry and regional data (e.g. LFS and Comtrade) and ONS micro-data, we will then investigate a number of questions. For example, how has Brexit impacted investment and hiring, how does this vary across regions, industries, firm sizes, ages and growth rates? How is this related to the initial enthusiasm for Brexit, and how are other policies affecting this? Are firms expectations consistent with the eventual outcomes (since we follow these firms over time) and what factors appear to influence these expectations? Are firms over-optimistic (too high mean) and over-confident (too high variance) as is often seen in surveys of senior managers? The project will generate important answers to these questions, which will be used to generate international journal publications, as we draw upon unique and timely data during a period of immense change. The basis of the evaluation of the data will be detailed economic analysis using state of the art panel data methods.B) Policy: The Bank and Treasury are both responding to the Brexit shock with only limited guidance on its impact on the UK economy. Having a minimum panel of 2500 firms at high frequency (monthly) will provide the data that we (and others) can use to explore uncertainty, subjective views of economic conditions and investment, sales and employment impacts by region and industry. We will introduce specialized questions to evaluate policy announcements on Brexit dates, policy positions on trade, immigration and steps to mitigate its impact.C) Data: Following on prior projects we will rapidly make available public indices of sales, investment, employment and price sentiments (e.g. the size weighted average monthly expected changes, and some lower frequency regional and industry indices). This will be extremely useful for policy makers, but also private firms trying to navigate the Brexit process. Secondly, we will provide on-line anonymized micro-data for business users and academics, and for registered users the full micro-data (confidentially). Our commitment to do this is highlighted by the extensive online provision in prior projects like www.worldmanagementsurvey.com and www.policyuncertainty.comThis project will provide cutting-edge results, both in terms of the academic analysis but also in the service it provides to key policy institutions such as HM Treasury and the Bank of England. This is made possible by the unique data set developed by a trans-Atlantic collaboration of Professors Mizen and Bloom and the specialist inputs of the C-Is in the Bank of England (Thwaites and Young).