The geography of post COVID-19 shutdown recovery risk in UK economic activity. Implications for recovery inequality and targeted stimulus

新冠肺炎疫情对英国所有地区的影响并不相同。当地消费服务行业（LCSI）的经济活动，如零售店、餐馆、理发店或园丁，几乎都停止了；其他行业受到的影响较小。这些行业之间的差异及其在当地经济中的不同重要性意味着复苏将对当地经济状况敏感，并且不会在地理上统一：一些社区面临更高的复苏风险，无法恢复到停产前的经济活动水平。这种恢复风险是两个变量的乘积。首先是冲击，即政府关门对当地家庭收入的影响。第二个是乘数，即家庭收入受到负面冲击后对LCSI经济活动的影响。在许多家庭依赖LCSI部门作为主要收入来源的社区，乘数可能特别大，这些社区很容易陷入支出减少和收入减少的恶性循环。该项目将产生数据，衡量英国社区的冲击、乘数和COVID-19关闭恢复风险。这些变量将使用来自国家调查和行政数据的个人和公司一级的信息进行估计。数据集和相应的政策报告将公开并积极传播，以指导地方和国家的政策设计。复苏不平等可能是巨大的：如果没有干预，现有的地区不平等可能会加剧。这项研究将为设计适当的恢复政策提供及时和必要的输入。

The COVID-19 shutdown is not affecting all parts of the UK equally. Economic activity in local consumer service industries (LCSI), such as retail outlets, restaurants, hairdressers, or gardeners has all but stopped; other industries are less affected. These differences among industries and their varying importance across local economies means recovery will be sensitive to local economic conditions and will not be geographically uniform: some neighbourhoods face a higher recovery risk of not being able to return to pre-shutdown levels of economic activity. This recovery risk is the product of two variables. The first is the shock, the effect of the shutdown on local household incomes. The second is the multiplier, the effect on LCSI economic activity following a negative shock to household incomes. In neighbourhoods where many households rely on the LCSI sector as a primary source of income the multiplier may be particularly large, and these neighbourhoods are vulnerable to a vicious circle of reduced spending and reduced incomes. This project will produce data measuring the shock, the multiplier, and the COVID-19 shutdown recovery risk for UK neighbourhoods. These variables will be estimated using individual and firm level information from national surveys and administrative data. The dataset, and corresponding policy report, will be made public and proactively disseminated to guide local and national policy design. Recovery inequality is likely to be substantial: absent intervention, existing regional inequalities may be exacerbated. This research will provide a timely and necessary input into designing appropriate recovery policy.