SBE-UKRI: Business Cycles, Uncertain Growth and the Distribution of Production

从历史上看，年轻公司在创造就业方面占有很大份额，其中最成功的公司在所有公司中增长率最高，是提高生产率的创新的主要来源。因此，自2007年以来的分配转变，以数量大幅减少、规模较小、增长缓慢的年轻公司为特征，可能会威胁到持久的经济损害。我们提议的环境具有必要的异质性，可以研究这些变化、投资疲软和总生产率放缓之间的相互作用。我们将确保我们的模型再现战后的总体规则，同时预测公司的分布与美国公司的分布有意义地相似，并允许发生类似于上次经济衰退以来美国企业之间的分配变化的可能性。在我们的环境中，当存在对全要素生产率增长和增长不确定性的冲击时，用不可分效用求解随机动态一般均衡需要在现有的异质企业研究的基础上推广数值方法。我们的新方法将引起在该领域工作的研究人员的普遍兴趣，扩大微观到宏观研究的领域。

Young firms historically have had a large share in job creation, and the most successful among them have the highest growth rates of all firms and are a major source of productivity-enhancing innovation. Distributional shifts since 2007 featuring substantially fewer, smaller and slower-growing young firms thus may threaten lasting economic damage. Our proposed environment has the necessary heterogeneity to study the interplay between these changes, anemic investment and the aggregate productivity slowdown. We will ensure that our model reproduces post-war aggregate regularities while predicting a distribution of firms that meaningfully resembles the U.S. firm distribution and allowing a possibility of distributional changes like those among U.S. businesses since the last recession. Solving for stochastic dynamic general equilibrium in the presence of shocks to TFP growth and growth uncertainty in our setting with non-separable utility requires a generalization of numerical methods beyond existing heterogeneous firm studies. Our new method will be of general interest to researchers working in the area, expanding the realm of micro-to-macro research.