Approaching the cliff edge? The intentions of private sector landlords on cessation of the eviction ban in Scotland.

在过去的25年里，私人租赁行业发展迅速，现在已成为英国住房组合的重要组成部分。该部门为年轻、流动和临时人口提供便利的住房，但也越来越多地被用来为弱势群体提供长期住房，这些群体以前可能能够获得地方当局或住房协会的住房。随着新冠肺炎的到来，苏格兰政府对管理租户驱逐程序的立法进行了一系列临时修改。之所以做出这些改变，是因为人们担心新冠肺炎疫情会导致驱逐人数增加，导致租户无家可归，支持服务不堪重负。这些变化包括延长某些理由的通知期（最多6个月），引入“行动前要求”，以及将所有理由重新分类为酌情处理。重要的是，这些变化还包括禁止因租户不付款而驱逐，直到2021年9月底。这些修订适用于所有三级或四级封锁地区。虽然这些变化被认为在短期内保护了租户和支持服务，但它们并没有解决根本问题，私人房东的拖欠租金积累了前所未有的水平。每多拖欠一个月，房客的债务水平就会增加，房东的收入也会进一步减少。在许多情况下，房东依靠这笔收入来支持他们的生活开支或偿还抵押贷款。这些变化只是暂时的，人们非常担心禁令解除后会发生什么。一些人认为，驱逐的数量不会显著增加，另一些人则认为，驱逐的数量会大幅增加，导致许多租户无家可归。虽然事实可能介于两者之间，但政策制定者、服务提供者和慈善机构迫切需要更详细地了解可能发生的事情，以便他们制定政策，在禁令结束时将影响降到最低。为了获得这种理解，我们需要确定问题的严重程度，具体来说，有多少房东拖欠，拖欠的金额有多大？我们还需要了解房东目前是如何处理欠款的，了解房东对立法的临时变化有多熟悉，并确定目前可用的支持（如贷款计划）是否适合目的。深入了解房东的适应能力和确定可能导致驱逐增加的临界点也是必要的，正如确定房东在禁令停止后的意图一样。不幸的是，我们目前还不知道这些问题的答案。事实上，我们对房东的行为和意图知之甚少。因此，本研究旨在通过在房东的支持下进行初步研究来回答这些问题。该研究将采用定量在线问卷的形式，通过我们的项目合作伙伴苏格兰安全存款向大量苏格兰私人租赁部门（SPRS）房东发放。调查结果将会被分析，并产生结果。调查结果将直接与政府、议会、服务提供商和第三部门组织分享。为了最大限度地提高影响力和覆盖面，调查结果还将通过一系列博客和推特发布。从调查设计到调查结果的传播，整个研究过程只需要4个月。需要这一加速方案，以便接收数据的国家有足够的时间消化调查结果，并据此制定适当的政策。

SummaryThe Private Rented Sector has grown considerably over the last 25 years and is now a crucial part of the UK's housing mix. The sector provides easily accessible accommodation for young, mobile, transient populations, but is increasingly being used to provide long term accommodation for vulnerable groups who in earlier times might have been able to access local authority or housing association accommodation. With the arrival of Covid, The Scottish Government made a series of temporary changes to the legislation that governs the tenant eviction process. These changes have been made over concerns that Covid-19 would result in an increase in evictions resulting in tenants being made homeless and support services being overwhelmed. The changes include extensions to notice periods (up to 6 months) for certain grounds, the introduction of 'Pre-action requirements', and the re-classification of all grounds as discretionary. Importantly the changes also include a ban on evictions due to tenant non-payment, until the end of September 2021. The amendments apply to all areas under a Tier 3 or Tier 4 lockdown.Whilst these changes are believed to have safeguarded tenants and support services in the short term, they have not addressed the underlying problems, and unprecedented levels of rent arrears have accumulated for private landlords. Every additional month of arrears increases tenant debt levels and further reduces landlord income. In many cases landlords rely on this income to support their living expenses or service a mortgage. The changes are only temporary and there is great concern as to what will happen when the ban is lifted. Some believe that there will be no markable increase in the number of evictions, others belief that there will be a significant increase leading to many tenants being made homeless. While the truth is likely to be somewhere in between, policy makers, service providers and charities urgently need a more detailed understanding of what is likely to happen, to allow them to create policies that minimise the impacts of the ban when it comes to an end. To obtain this understanding we need to identify the extent of the problem as it stands, specifically, how many landlords have arrears and how large are the arrears? We also need to gain insights into how landlords are currently dealing with arrears, to identify how familiar landlords are with the temporary changes in legislation, and to ascertain whether the support currently available, such a loan schemes, is fit for purpose. Insight into the resilience of landlords and identification of the tipping points that may result in an increase in evictions is also necessary, as is the identification of landlord intentions following the cessation of the ban.Unfortunately, we do not currently know the answers to these questions. In fact, we know very little about the behaviours or intentions of landlords in general. This research therefore aims to answer these questions by undertaking primary research with the support of landlords. The research will take the form of a quantitatively focused online questionnaire, which will be issued to a large population of Scottish Private Rented Sector (SPRS) landlords via our project partner SafeDeposits Scotland. The responses from the survey will be analysed and findings generated. The findings will then be shared directly with Government, Parliament, Service Providers and Third Sector organisations. To maximise impact and reach, the findings will be also be made available through a series of blogs and tweets. The entire research process from survey design to the dissemination of the findings will take just 4 months. This accelerated program is required to allow those receiving the data sufficient time to digest the findings and generate appropriate policies in response.