Aftershocks: Identity, immigration and political change after Brexit

余震：英国脱欧后的身份、移民和政治变革

• 批准号: ES/X005445/1
• 负责人: Robert Ford
• 金额: $ 52.47万
• 依托单位: University of Manchester
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Fellowship
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2022 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FX005445%2F1
• 关键词: Aftershocks; Identity; immigration; political; change

The disruptions set in train by the EU referendum and the long, polarising Brexit negotiation which followed continue to reverberate through the British political system, accelerating political change through the mobilisation of new demographic and identity divides. The central goal of this fellowship is to develop, analyse and disseminate cutting edge research on these Brexit aftershocks, through three research projects investigating different aspects of this broad theme. These projects are as follows: (1) Brexitland after Brexit: how demographic change continues to fuel political change This project will utilise new data resources to deepen understanding of the new demographic divides reshaping British politics. It has three strands: (1) Analysis of constituency level demographic and political change over the past decade, using newly available census data (2) Analysis of survey data to examine the evolution of identity divides over the 2019-2024 Parliament (3) A new survey with randomised experiments to test mechanisms explaining the mobilisation of new identity divides. A co-produced report will be published in September 2023, coinciding with the (probable) last party conference season of the Parliament. (2) Warmer welcomes? Identity politics, liberal mobilisation and public opinion on immigration two decades after the A8 enlargement This project will deepen our knowledge of attitudes to immigration, and in particular the mechanisms driving the 'liberal turn' in migration attitudes. It has three strands: (1) examination of evolving public views and political impacts from immigration over two decades (2) A new module of immigration attitudes questions on the NatCen mixed mode panel (3) A second survey with a series of randomised experiments to investigate the mechanisms driving changes in migration attitudes. A co-produced report will be published in March 2024, to coincide with the 20th anniversary of the A8 enlargement. (3) New dawn or false dawn? The role of identity politics in the 2024 general election The next general election will be the first fought since the implementation of the UK's Withdrawal Agreement and is likely to feature a very different issue agenda. The third project will assess the role of identity divides in this new context. It has three strands: (1) Analysis of demographic change and identity divides in the 2024 election at the aggregate and individual level using constituency and survey data. (2) Elite interviewing to analyse how party elites understood the role of identity divides in the election campaign, and the strategies they employed to respond. (3) A survey study with randomised experiments to rigorously test the impact of elite cues and messages to mobilise or neutralise identity divides. A co-produced report will be published in Spring 2025, ahead of the first anniversary of the election. All the fellowship research activities will be collaborative and will engage broad audiences beyond the academy. Each will feature a major report co-produced with a relevant stakeholder organisation, with launch event, dissemination and communications packages organised in co-ordination with the UKICE hub. Alongside these major reports and events, I will undertake an intensive program of communication and engagement activity to contribute to the UKICE Hub goal of promoting rigorous, high quality independent social science. I will produce a monthly "Polling Observatory" blog analysing polling and public opinion, to be published via Hub outlets. I will make regular contributions to the UKICE Hub across formats - briefings, commentaries, blogs, videos, podcasts, social media etc - on both my research projects and on broader areas of interest and expertise. I will participate regularly in UKICE conferences, briefings, roundtables and panel discussions, and I will use my extensive public profile, media experience and professional networks to promote Hub work and activity throughout the fellowship.

脱欧公投和随后的长期、两极分化的脱欧谈判所引发的混乱继续在英国政治体系中产生反响，通过动员新的人口和身份分歧加速了政治变革。该奖学金的中心目标是开发，分析和传播关于这些Brexit余震的前沿研究，通过三个研究项目调查这一广泛主题的不同方面。这些项目如下：（1）英国脱欧后的英国脱欧：人口变化如何继续推动政治变革该项目将利用新的数据资源，加深对重塑英国政治的新人口鸿沟的理解。它有三个方面：（1）使用新获得的人口普查数据分析过去十年选区层面的人口和政治变化（2）分析调查数据，以研究2019-2024年议会身份划分的演变（3）一项新的随机实验调查，以测试解释新身份划分动员的机制。一份共同制作的报告将于2023年9月发布，恰逢议会（可能）最后一次政党会议季节。 (2)更热情的欢迎？A8扩大后二十年的身份政治，自由主义动员和移民舆论这个项目将加深我们对移民态度的认识，特别是推动移民态度“自由转向”的机制。它有三个方面：（1）审查二十年来不断变化的公众观点和移民的政治影响（2）在NatCen混合模式面板上的移民态度问题的新模块（3）第二次调查，一系列随机实验，以调查推动移民态度变化的机制。一份共同制作的报告将于2024年3月发布，以纪念八国集团扩大20周年。(3)新黎明还是假黎明？身份政治在2024年大选中的作用下一次大选将是英国《脱欧协议》实施以来的第一次大选，很可能会有一个非常不同的议题议程。第三个项目将评估身份划分在这一新的背景下的作用。它有三个方面：（1）使用选区和调查数据，在总体和个人层面分析2024年选举中的人口变化和身份划分。(2)精英访谈，分析政党精英如何理解身份分歧在竞选活动中的作用，以及他们采取的应对策略。(3)一项随机实验的调查研究，以严格测试精英线索和信息对动员或消除身份分歧的影响。共同制作的报告将于2025年春季，即选举一周年之前发布。所有研究金研究活动都将是协作性的，并将吸引学院以外的广泛受众。每一份报告都将与相关利益相关者组织共同制作一份重要报告，并与UKICE中心协调组织发布活动、传播和沟通包。除了这些重要的报告和活动，我将进行一个密集的沟通和参与活动计划，以促进严谨，高质量的独立社会科学的UKICE中心的目标作出贡献。我将制作一个每月的“民意调查观察”博客，分析民意调查和民意，通过枢纽网点发布。我将定期为UKICE Hub提供各种形式的贡献-简报，评论，博客，视频，播客，社交媒体等-关于我的研究项目以及更广泛的兴趣和专业领域。我将定期参加UKICE会议，简报会，圆桌会议和小组讨论，我将利用我广泛的公众形象，媒体经验和专业网络，以促进整个奖学金中心的工作和活动。